Isblog

Give and take

2012-01-25T19:00:00.003+02:00

When it gets organized the international community can both give or take its support to or from any regime in the world and can either make of break it. This is what is happening with two regimes right now, Myanmar (Burma) that is being rescued from destitution and Iran that is being sanctioned to penury.

For the past 50 years Burma has been ruled by a military dictatorship that has exploited its riches and persecuted its people and driven the country to international isolation. The national elections in 1988 were won by Aung San Suu Kyi, who is the daughter of the assassinated former Burmese national leader. She became his heir apparent, but the military prevented her from attaining power and kept her under house arrest for 20 years. All along she has received the overt support of the western powers and the military leaders stopped short of killing her, although they did kill many of her supporters. Now, after about 10 years of secret negotiations, the military have transferred power to a "civilian" government that is dominated by the Army. But, they have also released Aung San from house arrest and allowed her to speak publicly and to join her party, The League for Freedom and Democracy. Also, she is going to stand in a local election soon that will allow her to represent her district in the national parliament. In exchange for this turn-around the international community has started to remove the sanctions that were applied by the UN and individual countries and Secty of State Hillary Clinton has visited Burma and promised to help Burma rejoin the community of nations and achieve economic improvements. Thus, sanctions can work and their removal can be a great attraction for wayward regimes and dictatorships to change their ways.

Iran has been pursuing nuclear weapons for 10 years and has been the focus of European and American negotiations. But, even the European countries realized finally that this has all been a delaying tactic. In the face of Israeli threats to take military action against Iran unless the western powers get serious about "crippling" sanctions, the EU has finally announced that it will start an embargo on Iranian oil. Since currently 18% of their oil imports come from Iran this is a major step. However, Japan that imports 10% of its oil from Iran has asked to be exempt from this embargo. The sanctioning of Iran's oil exports and the banning of dealing with the Iranian National Bank will severely hit the already weak Iranian economy. The question is why would a relatively economically deprived country with large oil deposits want to spend so much money on developing nuclear weapons. The US has responded to Iranian saber rattling in the Persian Gulf and threats to close the Straits of Hormuz to oil exports by sending another aircraft carrier, the "Abraham Lincoln" into the Gulf. This is only because of the expansionist ideology of the Iranian Shia revolution currently led by PM Ahmedinejad. Although few think that these sanctions will actually deter Iran from continuing to develop nuclear weapons, nevertheless it may cause such economic suffering in Iran that it might trigger another uprising against the regime.

The power of the international community to influence events is great, but not unlimited. Dictatorships such as existed in Nazi Germany and Communist Russia were undeterred by external pressure because of their fanatical ideologies. We expect Iran will follow their example, but only time will tell.

Egyptian election results

2012-01-23T18:59:00.001+02:00

The official results of the three-stage Egyptian elections have been announced, and they are worse than expected. The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) won 38% of the vote and the Al Noor (light) Salafi Party won 29%. Overall this gives the Islamist fundamentalists a huge two thirds majority in Parliament. But, there is a difference between the MB and the Salafists, although both are Islamist in the sense that they are political parties that base their program entirely or mainly on Islam. That means that both of them will want to introduce sharia law into Egypt, the Islamic law that was developed over the centuries by the umah, the collective of Muslim Imams and scholars.

The Moslem Brotherhood was established by Hassan al Bannah in 1928 and his follower Sayyad Qutb wrote an intensely anti-American book after having lived in the US from 1948-50. His response to the US was profoundly antagonistic and the party was heavily influenced by Nazi WWII anti-Jewish propaganda. They intended to protect Egypt and other Muslim countries from what they considered the corrosive effects of westernization and modernization. As such, this movement has its roots in a distinctly anti-western Muslim tradition. The salafi party has its origins in the strict interpretation of Islam fostered by the so-called Wahhabi sect of Islam that was founded by Muhammed al Wahhab in the northern remote Nejd region of Arabia starting in the 18th century. The Wahhabis believed that the Hashemite rulers of Arabia were corrupt because they were dealing with the west and they had strayed from the true path of Islam. The Wahhabis made a deal with Ibn Saud, the ruler of the Nejd and they fought a campaign against the Hashemites and drove them from Mecca and Medina and hence established Saudi Arabia in 1932. Anyone who believes that these movements are of ancient origin is wrong, the Egyptian MB was established in 1928 and the Saudi salafi movement in 1932. Both of them are united by a strong anti-western polemic.

However, things may not be as bad as it seems, there are a few mitigating circumstances. First, the FJP published a list of ca. 1,000 prisoners it would release, that includes a Coptic blogger who has written pro-Israel articles. Second they have chosen a notable Egyptian who will be the speaker of the Parliament who has committted himself to strictly neutral parliamentary procedure. There is also a one third minority opposition of non-Islamic parties, including a secular party that supported the revolution that has 1.5% of the seats. It is said that the FJP is partly pragmatic and interested in social justice and staying in power. However, the FJP has also said that it will work to help Hamas become the only representative of the Palestinian people (ie. they will oppose Fatah and the peace process) and they will help Hamas to overcome the "occupation," in other words to eliminate Israel. This has split Hamas, between those who want to retain ties with Shia Iran while others want to cut ties and rely only on the MB for support. Whatever happens these events do not augur well for Israel.

Does gender matter?

2012-01-22T18:59:00.000+02:00

With the current focus in Israel on women in the public sphere, the January lecture at the Netanya Academic College in the series sponsored by AACI-Netanya was topical and entitled "Is there gender bias in the Israeli courts?" given by Rochelle Don-Yehiye, a lawyer. She was born in the US and grew up in Long Beach, NY. She made aliyah in 1969 and studied law at Tel Aviv University. She lectured for 8 years at Bar-Ilan University on Labor Law. As a commercial lawyer she specializes in mediation between companies and couples. She is also on the Management Committee of the Israel Women's Organization and for12 years she has been on the Directorate of the Israel Electric Company and for the past 2 years she has also been on the Directorate of the Channel Two media company. With her co-author Rina Bogoch she co-authored a study published (in Hebrew) in 2000 entitled "Is there gender bias in the Israeli courts?"

There is gender bias all over the world, so why should Israel be any different? Research in all western countries, US, Canada, Europe, shows that husbands who murder their wives receive on average lower sentences than wives who murder their husbands. They set out to answer the question "does gender matter in the Israeli court system?" At first they interviewed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Shamgar and he said that they would have to prove their contention, so they set out on one of the most detailed such studies ever done that was funded by the Ford Foundation.

In their study they did not rely on questionnaires but used the actual transcripts of trials to compare the results for all cases of violence resulting in a sentence of 5 years or more from 1993-1998. They looked at the effect of the gender of the perpetrator, of the judge and of both prosecuting and defence attorneys. There were fewer cases of serious female violence so the statistics may not be significant in those cases, but they found that if the victim was male ca. 78% of women were convicted and 98% of men while if the victim was female only 6% of women and 26% of men were convicted and on average the sentence was 129 months if the victim was a woman and 165 months if a man. These results indicate that there is a complex gender bias in convictions and sentences.

There were also cases of indirect bias, resulting if the victim and perpetrator knew each other or not. This was sometimes considered to be a mitigating circumstance, however there was great difference between men and women. Of women only 10% were attacked by strangers, while for men the figure was 60% attacked by strangers. Clearly the most dangerous place for women is the home.

They considered what happens in the courtroom, and found that women lawyers are interrupted more and the judgements were less favorable for a female compared to a male lawyer. For comparable cases, a woman prosecutor got on average 37 months sentence while a male prosecutor got 40 months, then as defender the figures were 53 vs. 34 months, quite a big difference (so it pays to have a male defending attorney). They found that the Judges addressed the male and female lawyers differently, showing more deference to the men. In Israel there is no jury system, most courts have one or three judges. When a woman is judging alone she tends to be more lenient than when she is judging with two other men judges.

But, in cases of rape the idea that women judges would be more understanding to the victim does not hold. In comparable cases the average sentence for rape by a female judge was 10 months and for a male judge was 20 months. Psychologically the female judges appear to over-compensate, perhaps to avoid the appearance of gender bias. In regular crimes of violence the sentences are reversed, male judges gave on average 23 months to men and 17 months to females, while female judges gave only 10 or 11 months, so here the female judges are more lenient.

Inside the courtroom they found that in the results of rape cases Judges appeared to have a stereotypical prototype rape case in their minds, i.e. that of a young (virgin) female attacked by a stranger, while actually most cases of rape were "date rape" or rape between people who knew each other. Often the woman was older and dressed what was considered to be provocatively. For example, the lifestyle of the female victim was mentiond 364 times, and in those cases while the district court often found the man not guilty that was usually reversed on appeal to the Supreme Court.

This study confirmed many cases of gender bias in the Israeli court system and its results were used to "educate" lawyers and judges in order to avoid many instances of "unconscious" bias. Certainly the situation is better now than when the study was published 12 years ago, and recently The Israel Project published an article entitled "Women now a majority in the Israeli Justice System."

Ethiopian Jewry and cyber warfare

2012-01-20T18:58:00.000+02:00

There have been demonstrations of Ethiopian Jews in Israel against racism. This started in the south at Kiryat Malachi where a building refused to accept an Ethiopian couple as apartment owners because of their color. Then a group of Ethiopians walked all the way to Jerusalem in the cold and demonstrated there outside the Knesset and the PM's office. There is no doubt that there is color racism in Israel, but it is less severe than one might think, especailly compared to the USA. What annoyed the demonstrators is that the Minister of Immigrant Absorption Sofa Landver, who is from the former Soviet Union and belongs to Yisrael Beitanu, told them that they should be grateful that Israel helped them to come here. As a group that has upheld their connection to Judaism for 1,000 years in exile, they feel taht they should be treated more respectfully and who can blame them.

One of the problems is that many of them over hundreds of years were forcibly converted to Christianity. Ethiopia is a Christian country and although it is friendly to Israel, nevertheless there was terrible anti-Semitism directed against the Ethiopian Jews or Falasha. These converts or Falash Mura have mostly been accepted into Israel, although there are still thousands of them who claim to be Jews. Activists do not understand why the Israeli Government is so slow in repatriating them, but the Government points to the economic situation and the difficulty sometimes in confirming their original Jewishness. In any case the Ethiopians are becoming very integrated into Israeli society, in the professions, in the arts and in the military.

On another subject, last week a Saudi Arabian hacker, with the nickname OxOmar, organized a cyber attack from Mexico on several Israeli web-sites, including the Bank of Israel, El Al and the Stock Exchange. They never managed to interfere with the operations of these organizations, but did cause their external web-sites, where people go to get information such as flight schedules, to collapse. This was what is called a "denial-of;service" attack that involves too many users at the same time. However, the Israeli sites soon recovered and introduced more protections. The hackers also published on the web a list of Israeli owners of credit cards, but this was soon rectified. Then a group of Israeli hackers organized a pay-back, that turned out to be more extensive and more serious. They have disrupted the workings of the Bank of Saudi Arabia and published the names of thousands of users of credit cards and so on. The Israeli Government has said it does not believe in tit-for-tat in this area, but the Israeli hackers, who call themselves the "IDF Team," are supposedly acting independently. Their warning is "don't mess with us." Israel is far ahead of most countries in the cyber area.

WWIII?

2012-01-19T18:57:00.001+02:00

I have watched thousands of hours of documentaries about WWII. There are series using previously unknown color movies, series about attempts on Hitler's life, about Hitler's early life, about Hitler's last days in the bunker, about Hitler's secret weapons, about the development of the concentration camps and about the roving special murder squads (Einsatzgruppen). I have also seen movies about WWI, such as "War Horse" where the scenes of fighting in the trenches are done with Steven Spielberg's special ability. Also, the movie about Rudyard Kipling's son who died in the trenches. The more I see the more I realize that WWII was a continuation of WWI.

Certainly this was the motivation of Hitler and millions of other Germans, to reverse the defeat of 1918 and make it a victory in 1939. Those 21 years were merely an interlude, a short interval before the ignominy of defeat could be transformed into the glory of victory. Germans of all stripes believed intrinsically that they were superior to all other races/groups, certainly to the Jews, a convenient and powerless minority, and they could not understand nor accept that the Jews were somehow cleverer than them and that the British somehow managed to defeat them. It was all a huge mistake, the kind of mistake that arrogance cannot accept. Hitler was the ersatz Kaiser that the German people yearned for. Back to the past. That was why Hitler insisted on using the very carriage in which the German surrender was signed in 1918 to have the French sign their capitulation in 1940 and in the same place.

Maybe we should rename these world wars WWIa and Ib. Hopefully there will never be a WWIc, because the powers of Europe, Germany, France, Britain, have overcome their inter-European rivalries and moved on to bureaucratic games like the EU and the Eurozone. That should tie them down for a while. But in the wider world the wars have seemed tame, local conflicts such as Korea, Vietnam, Iraq (twice) and the Middle East Wars, the Suez Campaign (1956), the 6 day War (1967), the Yom Kippur War (1973), the Lebanon wars (1982 and 2002) and so on.
These have killed fewer and fewer people as the sophistication of the war increased. Can a war that kills less than 100,000 people be called a real war. Its amazing that the wars of the Arabs against Israel have produced so few casualties (and yet the Arabs call them Nakba and "genocide'). Now the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), that was a real war with ca. 1 million casualties and little more sophistication than artillery and poison gas.

Will there ever be a WWIII, a real all-out war that includes most of the nations of the world? Probably not, but if there ever is to be one it will probably involve Islamist fundamentalists, trying to take over the West and destroy its culture. The development of Iranian nuclear weapons could be the causative act of that war, especially if the Sunni and Shia join together. But, happily they hate each other more than they hate even Israel, so maybe an attack on Iran won't have such dire consequences. Remember the causative factor of WWII was the arrogance of the Germans over the defeat of Germany in WWI; the casuative factor of WWIII will probably be the arrogance of Islam over their perceived inferiority to the West.

Obama lost Egypt

2012-01-18T18:56:00.000+02:00

One of the greatest defeats of US foreign policy in the modern era was the loss of Iran by Pres. Jimmy Carter in 1979. By withdrawing support at a crucial moment from the Shah of Iran, however unpleasant he was as a megalomaniacal dictator, the result of his loss was far worse to the US, to Israel and to the Iranian people. The so-called human rights abuses attributed to his rule were multiplied ten times by those carried out by his successors, the Ayatollahs who took over from him. If the US and France had not allowed Khomenei to travel to Iran, and had supported the Shah in his position, millions of people would have avoided suffering and death, including the victims of the 8 year long Iran-Iraq war as well as the hundreds of thousands who over the past 30 years have suffered in Evian prison as well as having to escape into exile. But, history cannot be predicted or reversed.

So far the outcome in Egypt is unclear, but the enthusiastic liberal-minded attitude of the Obama Adminstration to the overthrow of Mubarak, who was a force for stability in Egypt and the region, has led to an impending take-over by the Muslim Brotherhood, possibly the worst outcome. The US is currently having secret negotiations with them, just as Carter did with the Khomeinists when they took over the US Embassy in Tehran. It's true that the Egyptian Army has not yet released the reins of power, but the fact that the westernized secular candidate El Baradei has dropped out of the Egyptian Presidential race is a harbinger of bad things to come.

Egypt is dependent on US aid and its chief money earner is tourism. A Muslim Brotherhood Government will prefer to be poor than to take money from the US and to have half dressed western tourists traipsing around its pyramids. They will expel most western influences and then their economy will collapse, but Muslim dominated countries aren't known for their economic growth, except those that have westernized such as Dubai and Malaysia. A poor, Islamist Egypt will definitely be a serious threat to Israel, although it will not be a military threat for some time to come.

Obama will be remembered amongst other things as the President who lost Egypt.

Palestinian origins

2012-01-17T18:55:00.001+02:00

"A DNA study found genetic evidence in support of historical records that "part, or perhaps the majority" of Muslim Palestinians descend from "local inhabitants, mainly Christians and Jews, who had converted after the Islamic conquest in the seventh century AD". They also found substantial genetic overlap between Muslim Palestinians and Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews, although with some significant differences that might be explainable by the geographical isolation of the Jews or by immigration of Arab tribes in the first millennium."

Today there are a total of 4.6 million Palestinian Arabs (including Gaza 1.2 m, WB 2.4 m, Israeli Arabs 1 m) compared to 5.0 million Jews in Israel and the WB. It's true that this is not much of a difference, but the Arabs are more split than the Jews, with Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in the WB being irreconcilable. There is a small split in Israel between the mainstream in Israel proper and the settlers in the WB, but the latter are split between those who would obey the Israeli Government and those who are currently fighting Israeli Governent orders to leave outposts and smaller settlements.

Suppose the settlers and the Israeli Government had a campaign to try to educate and persuade the Palestinians that they are in fact mainly descended from people who were originally Jews. Of course this would be very difficult, because apostasy is punishable by death under Islam and Muslims believe that everyone is born a Muslim but incorrect (Jewish or Christian) beliefs cause them to be stray from the true path of God. So it would be an uphill battle, but I predict that over time, as Israel is more successful and the Muslims are less successful in building a modern democratic state, that some Palestianin Arabs will become absorbed into Israel and will live as secular Jews. There are already many doing that, including Arabs living as Jews in Netanya and Tel Aviv and often married to Jews (mainly women). They just don't want to be known as such, not because they are afraid of the Jews (that too) but mainly because they are afraid of the Arab Muslims.

Iranian physicists

2012-01-16T18:53:00.000+02:00

Position available: "Nuclear physicist wanted, advanced qualifications required, also must be fluent in Farsi. Excellent pay, extra security bonus, apply Iranian National Guard Nuclear Weapons Facility, Qoms, Muslim Republic of Iran. Body repatriation guaranteed."

The current situation with regard to the deaths of nuclear physicists in Iran is reminiscent of the situation that occured in Egypt in the 1950's when rocket scientists had a very high mortality rate. Someone kept bumping off their ballistics experts, who were being trained by Russian scientists. Also, they were sent warning notes that they should leave Egypt immediately. However, the warning notes backfired, from them and other evidence the Egyptian authorities were able to trace the whole Israeli spy ring that had been setting off explosives in Cairo, including the so-called "champagne spy". I suppose the Mossad learnt its lesson, now they concentrate on bumping off the scientists. It is thought unlikely that Israeli agents are actually doing the dirty work, affixing the bombs to the cars, others are probably doing this, including opponents of the regime who might have lost loved ones or friends in the brutal police/army crackdowns on dissent or Baluchis or other minorities who strongly oppose the control of the Iranian Government.

Whoever is doing it they are quite successful, having murdered 4 scientists in 2 years. It is well known that such experts are not easily replaced and the removal of key individuals in an organization can render it inoperable. It can also intimidate other suitable experts from replacing them. All this, and the computer worms that have infected the Iranian computer systems, are delaying tactics to slow down or try to stop the progress of Iran towards obaining the enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb. Let's hope together with the increased sanctions all this may work. But, if not, as they say, "all options are on the table."

The cancellation of a joint annual US-Israel military excercise this week is most worrying. Does it have anything to do with the fact that Pres. Obama warned PM Netanyahu in a phone call last week that he does not want to be "surprised" by an Israeli unilateral attack on Iran. The US Chief of Staff Adm. Mullen is due in Israel on a pre-scheduled visit this week. Let's hope the US and Israel are on the same page of the same book when it comes to Iran, but unfortunately with Obama facing an election this year this is doubtful.

What is missing?

2012-01-15T20:13:00.000+02:00

What is missing in the Middle East?

1. A peace movement in the Arab world. There is NO Arab country that has a public movement that wants to make peace with Israel. On the contrary, the newly "liberated" countries like Egypt are talking about cancelling or changing the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, and most Arab countries are continuing to express their hatred of Israel and their determination to destroy Israel. Meanwhile Israel has a very active peace movement, such as "Peace Now."

2. An Arab refugee resettlement plan. In the Arab world Palestinian refugees are never settled, they always remain "refugees" until the third and fourth generation. Meanwhile the forgotten refugees, the nearly 1 million Jews who fled or were forced out of Arab lands have been re-settled for 50 years in Israel. That is the difference, Israel had a successful re-settlement plan, the Arabs have NO refugee re-settlement plan (except to destroy Israel)!

3. Minority rights. There is NO concept of minority rights under Islam. In Egypt the Coptic Christian minority (ca. 10%) are continually being attacked and their churches burnt down. In Iraq the Chaldean Christians (ca. 2%) are continually being attacked and their churches burnt down. In Gaza and the West Bank the Christian minority (4%) are continually being attacked and their churches burnt down. Question, what can one conclude from this? That wherever there are Muslims, such as in Pakistan, Nigeria, Philippines, there are attacks on Christians and their churches are burnt down. Luckily there are few Jews any more to be targets for the Muslims in these countries.

4. Democracy. There is NO successful Arab democracy in the Middle East, nowithstanding the uprisings that started a year ago. Iraq and Tunisia are closest to becoming democracies, but Egypt and Libya are still struggling, Jordan and Lebanon are far from democracy and Syria is entering a civil war as the Assad regime tries to stem the popular tide by force. The Palestinians are split between Islamist Hamas and radical Fatah, with no hope of a united democracy. No wonder they can't make peace with an actual democracy like Israel.

It is the preponderance of these NO's that makes the Muslim Arabs so intransigent relative to Israel. Those who focus on Israel's policies, such as building houses on the West Bank, are really missing the point!

Immigration loophole

2012-01-13T20:11:00.000+02:00

The Israeli Supreme Court ruled by a majority of 5 to 6 that it is not necessary that familes with one spouse abroad be united in Israel. Some on the left immediately called this a racist decision..

But consider the situation: Israel is surrounded by enemies; Muslim men take second or third wives; current law before this ruling would allow any Muslim man who married an Israeli Arab woman to move to Israel without any legal barrier and even become an Israeli citizen. Generally, when a Muslim woman marries she moves to the husband's abode, however, in the case of Israeli Arab women the authorities noticed a reversed trend, that in most cases the husband moved to Israel, the wive's abode. Also, the security forces found that some of these men were using this unification as a simple route to enter Israel in order to carry out terrorism. In fact in the year 2010, over 100,000 such cases took place, of Palestinian or other Muslim men marrying Israeli Arab women and moving to Israel. This became a very disturbing trend and presaged the formation of a "fifth column" within Israel. So the Government introduced a law to prevent this happening, in other words the right of unification of husbands and wives was made secondary to the interests of State security. The law, entitled the Citizenship and Entry into Israel Law, then went to the Supreme Court for adjudication and the majority by a small margin agreed with the law.

In other words, they ruled that the couple could be unified outside Israel, eg. in the West Bank, or they could be unified within Israel subject to checking by the security forces and their unification in Israel could be legally rejected. This is another way of the Jewish State to protect itself, like the security fence that surrounds the West Bank. This fence has resulted in terrorism being reduced by ca. 90%, i.e. it has saved hundreds of lives. Before the fence was in place the Arab terroristsonly had to walk into ISrael, but with the fence in place how could terrorists get into Israel? They found a loophole, marry an Israeli Arab woman. Now that loophole has been closed and the Jewish State can now legally prevent the influx of large numbers of Palestinian Arab men.

All free and open societies have found the need to protect themselves from massive immigration of undesirable aliens. Britain stopped the immigration of East African Asians; Idi Amin deported the Asians (mainly Indians) from Uganda, and Britian accepted them, but then they found that Indians were moving from India to Uganda in order to get into Britain, so the Government closed that loophole. The US prevents the immigration of Mexicans, even if they claim to be married or related to Mexicans legally resident in the US. It is the only way for open societies to protect themselves, they have to selectively close their borders.

Palestinian reconciliation

2012-01-11T20:10:00.000+02:00

The unity of Hamas and Fatah has been rendered impossible following an insult to Fatah, when their delegation to continue discussions was not allowed to enter Gaza. They were turned away ignominiously at the border. So the maneuver of having Hamas join the PLO as a kind of tactic, has made no difference. On the contrary, it now gives Hamas the possibility of devouring the PLO, which was its own sworn enemy.

In response, Fatah reviled Hamas with renewed vigor, once again showing the fundamental schism between them. There are several major differences 1. Fatah is basically nationalist in its approach, they want a Palestinian State, while Hamas want an Islamic State that will join with the other Islamic States to form a new Caliphate; 2. Fatah at least publicly declare that they no longer intend to use terrorism in order to achieve their objectives (although they do so anyway, just like Arafat did), while Hamas make no secret of the fact that they intend to use terrorism to destroy Israel; 3. Fatah deals with Israel and even negotiates with Israel, and could even make an agreement with Israel, but Hamas will never make any deal with Israel; 4. Hamas is prepared to deal with Iran (the Shia enemy) as well as the Muslim Brotherhood, while Fatah has few natural allies in the Arab world, now that Mubarak and his colleagues have gone. If they each stick to their distinct policies there is no longer the possibility of a unity government for both the West Bank and Gaza. In a way, this is in Israel's interest, but in the longer run, as Fatah grows weaker and Hamas grows stronger, it could boomerang and Israel could find itself fighting a Hamas-controlled West Bank.

Apart from these possibilities, IDF Chief Benny Gantz was reported to have told a Knesset panel in a briefing that Israel should be prepared for an influx of Syrian Alawite refugees, should the Assad regime fall. The Arab League monitors have failed and civilians are being killed every day. Gantz predicted that the Assad regime will collapse in 2012 and then there is likely to be a backlash against the Alawites, a heretical sect that consists of 12% of the Syrian population. The Alawites split off from the Shia and are not even considered Muslims by the mainstream Sunnis. If there is sectarian violence in Syria, then the Alawites will have nowhere to go, they cannot escape to any Sunni country, such as Turkey. They could try the Shia of Lebanon, but they might reject them as failures. Only Israel might seem a "neutral" as a non-Muslim country. So the coming year might be interesting.

Domestic tranquility

2012-01-10T20:09:00.001+02:00

Even with the two sides meeting in Amman, which noone expects will yield any useful results, and Iran threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz, the focus in Israel's media is on domestic issues.

The Israeli Cabinet agreed to a plan to extend pre-school financial support down to the age of 3 years. This was in response to the demands of the demonstrators at last summer's social protests. PM Netanyahu had set up the Trachtenberg Committee to recommend actions by the Government and this was one of the main ones. To pay for it and not increase the budget would require each ministry to give up 4% of its budget. But, some Ministers were squeamish, so after some politicking with the Shas, Israel Beitanu and Independence (Barak) parties in his coalition, Netanyahu persuaded them to go along. The Defense budget will not only not be cut, but due to the "volatile" situation in the region it will be increased by NIS 3 billion. Other changes include establishing 2,000 more pre-schools and supporting after-hours activities. These changes, if approved by the Knesset, will make the lives of young couples with children much easier. This is only one of several initiatives that the Netanyahu Government intends to introduce, even though the social protesters rejected the recommendations of the Trachtenberg Committee.

Yair Lapid, the anchor of channel 2 TV news, has announced that, like his father Tommy Lapid, he will leave journalism and enter politics. Because he is so popular it has been estimated that he alone could receive 15 Knesset seats. This would decimate the centrist Kadima party that is led by Tzipi Livni. Kadima was the successor of Tommy Lapid's Shinui party. But, it is not known yet whether or not Yair Lapid intends to form his own party or join an existing party. Naom Schalit, father of the exchanged IDF soldier Gilad Schalit, also announced his intention to enter politics and in his case join the practically defunct Labor Party.

Another devstating scandal features the Head of the Israel Football Association, Avi Luzon, who was questioned under caution by the police Fraud Squad yesterday for 8 hours, on suspicion of fixing premier league games. He is supposed to have chosen specific referees for certain games with the intention of obtaining fixed outcomes. So far the police say they are not satisifed with his answers after they have also spoken to several other people involved in the suspected game fixing.

At an IDF checkpoint near Jenin four Palestinians were arrested with 11 pipe bombs, a gun and a knife. They were planning a major terrorist attack in Israel. Luckily they were detected and the plot foiled. It is not known to which group they belonged. Even while talks are ongoing in Amman, Israel must protect itself against continuing attempts to carry out terrorist attacks.

Choose Israel!

2012-01-08T18:51:00.000+02:00

Question: given a choice would you rather be Israel or the Arabs? Answer: anyone who chooses the Arabs needs their head examined.

There is unprecedented chaos in the Arab world, Egypt is poised between a military coup and an Islamist Muslim Brotherhood dictatorship; Syria is a bloodbath, with over 5000 dead and hundreds being killed and arrested daily; Libya is just emerging from a civil war and is beset by inter-tribal conflicts; Lebanon is dominated by Hizbollah, the pro-Iranian Shia organization, and faces a new civil war; Jordan is relatively stable, but the future of the Hashemite monarchy is not assured; Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy that has a sizeable restive Shia minority located in the oil-producing areas; Bahrain has a Sunni monarchy sitting atop a rebellious Shia majority; Iraq is taking the first baby steps towards democracy, but may soon be split into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish mini-states. With all these political and economic problems the Arabs may not get organized for another 50 years.

Israel meanwhile is a vibrant democracy, with one of its most stable coalition governments, its economy is booming (4.5% growth) and its unemployment rate is the lowest for years (5%). Both Israel and the Sunni Arab states are threatened by Iran, but the Arabs have no effective means to oppose Iran, they are militarily impotent, while Israel is a serious military threat to Iran and Iran knows it. Even more, the US cannot allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons and threaten the closure of the Straits of Hormuz to oil exports, and so Iran is flirting with destruction by carrying out military games in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile the Arabs remain self-destructive and passive.

So even though Israel is threatened by Iran, so are the Arabs, and even though Israel is threatened by the Arabs they are no real threat. This leaves the Palestinians; who would you rather choose to be, Israel or the Palestinians? It's not even close, the Palestinians are deeply split between the nationalist Fatah/PLO and the Islamist Hamas. Hamas itself is also split between those who want to remain allies of Shia Iran and those who see the Egyptian Sunni Muslim Bortherhood as their real allies. Furthermore, the PA that is an excuse for a Palestinian mini-state, has no chance of ever being a real state, because it lacks any vestige of infra-structure or organization. The world should be asking: what to do with this Palestinian problem, and the best answer is to ignore it and stop pouring money into a deep black hole. So the choice is Israel every time!

Delegitimizing Israel

2012-01-06T16:56:00.001+02:00

In a move that is highly indicative of the demonizing, knee-jerk reactions that are used to delegitimize Israel, the British and French Governments criticized Israel for approving more building projects in the West Bank and Jerusalem. The British Ambassador to Israel, Matthew Gould, who incidentally is Jewish, held a press conference to castigate Israel over these moves, and the Elysee Palace issued a sharp criticism. But, it so happens these reports were totally false. They had been released by an Israeli NGO, Ir Yamim, that exists only to criticize Israel and that is supported by money from these EU governments. It so happened that the Israeli Government did not approve any permits to build in the West Bank or Jerusalem, it was a totally made up report. Yet, Britain and France never bothered to check the facts with the Israeli Government, they merely accepted the report of their own anti-Israel NGO.

Of course, both countries criticized Israel for approving these building permits just when talks are taking place between Israel and the PA in Amman, Jordan. So Ir Yamim clearly timed this report to deliberatly have Israel criticized publicly now. This kind of thing has happened many times, so why bother to check the facts. Also, the process of approving building permits is a long slow bureaucratic one, often taking up to ten years, that is mainly a local authority matter and is beyond the control of the Government, as it is in most countries. This incident shows clearly that the British and French foreign policy establishments are primed to criticize Israel independently of the facts, in order to earn points with the Arabs, whether they are anti-western or not.

In a separate report in the Jerusalem Post it is stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Al Kuds (Jerusalem) Brigade is expanding its role in Europe and around the world. This is especially troubling because these are military-trained Iranian terrorists who are sent out to carry out Iran's wishes. This group was responsible for the blowing up of the Jewish facilties in Argentina and many other nefarious activities. It is speculated that as Iran nears the attainment of a nuclear weapon and a preemptive strike against Iran becomes more likely, especially after they showed that they intend to close the straits of Hormuz to oil supplies, then they will have Iranian terrorists in place in the West to carry out sabotage. These acts will be timed to coincide with Iran's program of expansion in the Middle East against Israel and the Sunni Arab states. I wish that the EU countries would pay more attention to this real threat than to the illusory issuance of permits on the West Bank to build phantom structures.

By the way, both Britain and France issued lame apologies.

By what right?

2012-01-04T16:55:00.002+02:00

Question, what do these countries have in common: Denmark, Bulgaria, Serbia, Tajikistan, Libya, Laos, Paraguay, Jordan, Norway, Ireland, Moldova, Latvia, Kuwait, Slovakia, Finland, Armenia, Jamaica, Cyprus and so on.... Answer: they all have populations that are less than that of Israel.

A recent statistic published by the Israeli Government reported that at the end of 2011 there are 7,836,000 citizens of Israel. This includes ca. 6 million Jews, the rest are Arabs (Muslim, Christian and Druze) and others. There are many people in the world, not least Arabs and other Muslims who think Israel should be destroyed and its population of Jews annihilated. There are also many liberal and leftist westerners who think that the founding of Israel was a "mistake," that the struggles of people who worked for hundreds of years to bring a Jewish State back into existence should be forgotten and that it should all be given back to the Palestinian Arabs, who never existed as an entity before 1967.

Yes, it is a fashion, a leftist fad, but what right do they have to consign another 6 million Jews to death in order to satisfy some vague ideological conception, that puts all the right on the side of the "poor, suffering" Palestinian refugees. Come on, give me a break, this is superficial and puerile. There is no other group in the world that has continued as so-called "refugees" for 62 years, there is no other group that has been supported by a UN agency, UNWRA, for all that time, and there is no other conflict driven by such hatred and base motives. Also, there is no other country that has made such strides, against such continued odds, to fluourish as a modern democratic state. Ask yourself, why do all these other countries deserve to continue in peace, but not Israel. That is pure anti-Semitism.

Surprise, surprise!

2012-01-03T16:52:00.001+02:00

Today it was announced that Israeli and Palestine Authority representatives will meet tomorrow in Amman, Jordan, under the auspices of King Abdullah, to discuss restarting direct negotiations. That is after 16 months on no negotiations, as a result of PA Pres. Abbas refusing to negotiate unless Israel accepted his preconditions, namely stopping all settlement building on the West Bank and accepting the pre-June 1967 ceasefire lines as the borders of a putative Palestinian State. So what then was there to negotiate? Now that the PA has agreed to meet and talk about talking, without preconditions, then the fact that PM Netanyahu stuck to his guns and refused to accept any preconditions to talk has proven to have been the right policy. Those who criticized Netanyahu and the Israeli Government for not making further concessions to the Palestinians prior to actual talks have been proven wrong.

Why now? There are many potenial answers to this question. First there have been ongoing secret talks between Israel, the PA, Jordan and the representatives of the Quartet (US, EU, UN and Russia). No doubt pressure was put on by the western powers, but with an election looming in the US, the Obama Administration is unable to take any strong immediate action, but may have told the sides that the President needs some progress so that he has something to show for all the time and effort the US has expended on the "Palestine problem." Second, with the chaos going on in the Arab world, King Abdullah needed to take some action to show that he is still there and still engaged in important activities. There is no doubt that PM Netanyahu wanted to show some progress in the talks.

But, why the Palestinians? Only recently the PA, run by Fatah, was talking unity with Hamas, which is totally opposed to any peace talks with Israel. Pres. Haniya of Hamas, the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood, is currently on a tour of Egypt, Libya and Turkey. Currently he is in Turkey having discussions with PM Erdogan regarding Turkish support should there be a future conflict with Israel. Certainly this puts Abbas out of the picture and seems to show that Haniya is the power to be reckoned with, particularly since the Muslim Brotherhood has won the elections in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, and Turkey is already run by a Sunni equivalent of the Muslim Brotherhood. The only people who might support the PA/Fatah are Jordan, the US, the Quartet and ironically Israel, since the PA is the only Palestinian government that Israel can deal with. So it might be Haniya's current tour that has triggered Abbas to try to restart negotiations with Israel. At least it makes it look as if he is doing something!

Noone expects these preliminary talks to accomplish anything substantive. But, for those who think that talking is better than anything else, this is at least a small sign of progress.

Settler and haredi extremists

2012-01-02T16:52:00.001+02:00

This is addressed to those who think that the extreme right wing settler's groups, who carry out the "price tag" attacks against mosques and IDF bases, are in the same category as the extremist ultra-orthodox (haredi) groups, who attack girls and women and try to segregate buses and schools. They could not be more diametrically opposite.

The price-tag groups are from the national religious camp, they are extreme Zionists, who believe the West Bank is a part of historic (biblical) Eretz Israel and who regard their presence there as ordained by God. The extremist haredi groups are motivated by religious beliefs and are anti-Zionist, they don't recognize the legitimacy of the State of Israel, they believe it is ordained by God that men and women must be separated (much like the extreme Muslims) and so they fight the authorities of the State in order to impose their practices on others, including the secular population.

While the price-tag groups take actions against the Arabs and against the IDF, which they see as their oppressors (when ordered to destroy settler outposts by the Israeli Government), the extreme haredim take actions against the secular population and the police if they try to stop their demonstrations and their provocations. So the motivations and targets of the two groups are totally different. Their only major similarities are that they both claim to be carrying out God's wishes and that they are both dangers to the State of Israel. However, neither group can be termed "terrorists" since they have neither killed anyone, nor intend to.

Yesterday, there was a demonstration of haredim in Jerusalem that received major media attention because men and boys dressed up in concentration camp uniforms and wore yellow stars. This disgusting PR stunt has been strongly criticized by all other groups in Israeli society. These haredim justify this because they characterize the State of Israel as a fascist state that is oppressing them and they liken it to the Nazis. This demonstration was held in response to arrests of extremist haredim in Beth Shemesh near Jerusalem, where they were obstructing and spitting on young girls going to a school near their area. These actions are meant to intimidate regular orthodox Jews and to attempt to impose haredi practices on others.

But, just as there are moderate settler's who are the majority and who would never attack mosques or IDF bases for any reason, so there are moderate haredim who would never dream of trying to frighten, intimidate and even attack women or girls. In both cases the moderates are the vast majority, one could guess that maybe only 10% of each group are extremists. However, there is a large group in each case who are sympathetic to their cause and their actions. This makes it extremely difficult because their own groups provide them with support and sympathy. However, when it comes to attacking mosques and IDF bases for the settlers and to haredim parading around in concentration camp uniforms, that's where the moderates part company with the extremists, these actions are beyond the red line.

In both cases, PM Netanyahu has condemned their practices and the results have been changes in Government policies and even the introduction of bills in the Knesset to change the law. Whoever thought that there would be the need for a law in Israel to stop Jews from using concentration camp uniforms to villify the State, just as noone believed that any Jewish-Zionist group would ever attack mosques or IDF bases. We are growing up, we are learning that everything is possible and we must be protected by legislation.

Which are the more dangerous groups, the haredim or the settlers. The former are increasing at a great rate because of their high birthrate and it is estimated that in 50 years they will comprise one third of the population (another third being the Israeli Arabs). The settler extremists are a danger from within the Zionist body politic, and they have threatened to fight the Arabs and either cause another war or to form their own Jewish State named Judea. In either case the State of Israel must protect itself from both of these extremist groups and make sure that women are protected in the public sphere and that Government decisions in the occupied areas are respected.

New Year predictions

2012-01-01T16:51:00.000+02:00

2011 was a record year for the number of Arab dictators removed from office. The uprisings in North Africa that removed Gaddafi, Mubarak and their colleagues are still playing themselves out. In Syria the violent struggle is still continuing even with the delegation of the Arab League present. Some predictions for 2012; in Syria, Assad will fall and his regime will be replaced under conditions of unprecedented violence and bloodshed and Syria will be exhausted for some time to come. The regimes in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia will be dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and they will try to support their Hamas brothers in Gaza. But, their own financial difficulties will tend to focus their attentions on their serious domestic issues. The Egyptian regime may want to change the Peace Treaty with Israel, but it will be too distracted with other issues to actually do so, they will not be secure enough financially and militarily to risk it all on a war with Israel.

The situation regarding Iran will worsen now that Iran has directly threatened the flow of oil to the world via the Straits of Hormuz (one third of the world's oil supply goes thru there from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait). Now that the US has withdrawn from Iraq, the Shia dominated al Maliki Government will be freer to engage with Iran. The year 2012 may be the critical year in which Iran reaches the threshold of achieving a nuclear weapon and Israel and the US will be forced to take military action against it. The consequences of such a war cannot be predicted. But, it is likely that Israel will unleash the IDF on Gaza prior to attacking Iran to stop them from attacking Israel from the rear while that war is in progress. Hizbollah, that is a great threat to Israel with its 40,000 rockets, will be too distracted with the fall of Assad and will prefer to continue their attempts to take over Lebanon and ensure their power base, rather than lose it all by attacking Israel. Thus, Iran will be stripped of its support from Syria, Hizbollah and Hamas.

The US will be forced to join in the Israeli attack on Iran for two reasons, first they cannot afford to allow Iran to close the straits of Hormuz and second this is the only way that Pres. Obama can achieve a second term. The liberal Democrats are going to vote for him anyway and not for any Republican opponent. But, the Republicans and conservatives will applaud Obama standing up to the Iranian Ayatollahs and supporting Israel, such an attack will be popular in the US, unlike the previous wars with Iraq and Afghanistan. In Iran the war will be purely in the air, US troops will not seek to occupy Iran, so there will be minimal US casualties and amid the chaos and destruction, there will be a sustained uprising, like that in Syria, and the Iranian Guards and their cohorts will be unable to put it down. Out of this will arise a new Iran! Ok, so maybe this is wishful thinking and maybe I'm an incurable optimist, but at least it gives us something good to look forward to in the coming year. Happy New Year!

Letters

2011-12-29T08:22:00.001+02:00

The letters below were published in the Jerusalem Post Magazine section on Dec 9 and Dec 23, 2011, respectively

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Sir:
With regard to "Clinging to Judaism" (Diaspora, 25/11/11) about the remaining "Chueta" or Bnei Anusim of Mallorca, I would like to draw your readers' attention to the new International Institute for the Study of Secret Jews (Anusim) recently founded at Netanya Academic College (NAC). It so happens that the person featured in the "Questionnaire" section of the same issue is Prof. Zvi Arad, President of NAC, who was instrumental in bringing the Institute into existence.

The Institute is based on the Casa Shalom Insititute for Marrano-Anusim Studies which moved from Gan Yavne to NAC this year, and includes an excellent library on this subject collected over nearly 40 years by Gloria Mound and her late husband Leslie. We urge anyone interested in this subject to either visit the library at NAC or to contact us via the Institute's Facebook page.

I would also like to point out that Gloria Mound made a pioneering study of the Bnei Anusim of the Balearic Islands starting in the 1970's. Some of the Bnei Anusim have documentation and can still claim to be Jews and a few have been recognized as such by rabbinic authorities.

Sincerely

Jack Cohen
Board Member
Intl. Inst. for Study of Secret Jews (Anusim)
Netanya Academic College

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Sir:

In relation to the article on WWI German General Erich von Falkenhayn, who supposedly saved the Jewish population of Palestine from being massacred like the Armenians (“The irony of it all”, Dec 9, 2011), I would like to mention his even more amazing successor who was in command of the Turkish Army in Palestine that opposed British Gen. Allenby in WWI, German General Otto Liman von Sanders (1855-1929) who was partly Jewish!

The General's name is rather odd, his original family name was Liman. He was an Anglophile, and so when he was raised to the peerage by the Kaiser, he added the English name "Sanders" to the aristocratic "von". However, he was opposed by many Prussian Generals, who used his Jewish ancestry against him. So the German Chief of Staff in 1913 sent him to Turkey where he was made head of the German military mission to Constantinople to reorganize the army of the Ottoman Empire. In WWI, Liman commanded Turkish forces in the Gallipolli campaign (1915-16). One of the Turkish officers he promoted was Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey.

Gen. Allenby outmaneuvered the Turks in Palestine in WWI, he outflanked the Turkish defenders in Gaza by capturing Beersheva in 1917, forcing the Turks to withdraw up the coast. As a result, Gen von Falkenhayn was replaced by von Sanders, who was put in charge of the Turkish forces in 1918, but it was too late. Allenby's forces won the crucial battle of Megiddo in Oct 1918, thus defeating the Turks and capturing all of Palestine. Liman von Sanders was captured in Istanbul and returned to Germany where he retired and wrote his memoirs.

Sincerely
Jack Cohen

The secret Jews of Mashad

2011-12-28T08:19:00.000+02:00

A conference on the Secret Jews of Mashad entitled "From Darkness to Light " took place at Netanya Academic College on Sunday Dec 25, 2011. It was organized by the "International Institute for the Study of Secret Jews (Anusim)" at the College. Greetings were delivered from Israel’s Fifth President, Izhak Navon, the President of the Netanya Academic College, Prof. Zvi Arad, the Chairman of the Institute, Prof. Michael Corinaldi, and Major General (retd.) Eitan Ben Eliyahu. The speakers were Prof. Aharon Namdar, himself a Mashadi Jew, Prof. David Menashri, Mr. Ori Cohen Aharonov , who showed a movie made in the 1970's about the Mashadi Jews, Dr. Hilda Nissimi, Mr. Ben-zion Yehoshua Raz and Mr. Avi Bezalely. The Heads of the Mashadi communities in Israel, Milan and the USA were also present.

Mashad is a city in the north east of Iran. It is one of the holy cities of the Shia Muslims who dominate Iran. Jews lived in Mashad from way back. On a specific day, March 27, 1849, a rumor circulated that a Jewish woman had desecrated the Mosque by sacrificing a dog there. In Mashad there was a pogrom, about 40 Jews were killed, their shops were attacked and ransacked and the whole community of ca. 4,000 Jews were forcibly converted to Islam. They became known as Jadid al-Islam, or new Muslims.

These Jews continued to live in their ghetto area and maintained a very close community in which they secretly remained practicing Jews, but outwardly they were Muslims. They attended the Mosque, they had Persian names, they bought Halal meat, but fed it to their dogs, they did everything in Farsi, they betrothed their children in marriage at a very early age 5 or 6, in order to prevent them marrying out, but the other Muslims refused to marry them anyway. The parallels with the "marranos" of Spain and the Balearic Islands are uncanny, they were forcibly converted to Christianity, they were called New Christians or conversos, they did not inter-marry, and the Old Christians refused to inter-marry with them. But, the Mashadi Jews were unique because for 150 years they maintained their secret lives as Jews even though they were constantly being checked by the Shia Muslims and even though it was risking death to do so.

Every member of the community from the time they were babies were schooled in how to keep the secret. They lived double lives. Candles were lit on Friday night in cellars, The Synagogue was a hidden room that people entered in small groups and left surreptitiously. Whereas there were forced conversions throughout the Persian Empire, nowhere else (as far as is known) did the whole community successfully retain their Jewish identity, only marry between themselves and produce ketubot in Hebrew to document the generations. Mashadi Jews spread throughout Iran, and in some other places, such as Tehran, they lived openly as Jews, but in Mashad they could not. In other towns and villages they were assimilated into the predominant Shia population. Since there were altogether about 1 million Jews throughout Persia, it is estimated that now about 30% of the Iranian population are descended from Jews. Even Pres. Ahmedinejad is rumored to have Jewish antecedents, his name comes from Ahmed al-jadid.

The subtitle of the conference was "From darkness to light." Secret Jews from Mashad went on the Hajj to Mecca and also they were Kerbalis, going to the Shia Shrine in Kerbala. But, many of them then continued to Jerusalem and many stayed there. The first Mashadi Synagogue was built in the Bukharan Quarter of Jerusalem 100 years ago. Under the Shahs the situation for Jews improved, but after the Iranian revolution in 1979 things deteriorated. Most of the 300,000 Iranian Jews then left for Israel, leaving behind about 20,000.

In Mashad there were other attacks and another pogrom took place in 1946, by which time the whole population of Mashadi Jews left for Israel, the US and Europe. All the Mashadi Jews successfully emigrated, and today there are 16,000 in Israel and an equal number in the US and elsewhere. They consider themselves separate from the other Iranian Jews who were never forcibly converted to Islam, similar to the difference between Sephardim and "marranos". This difference caused them some difficulties, including suspicion by the British in Palestine, even though some of them helped the British in Persia, and difficulty being accepted as Jews in Israel.

Ironically the Mashadi Jews in Israel today are in the process of assimilating into Israeli culture, whereas in the US they have retained their identity through intra-marriage, close community relationships as well as continued use of Farsi. The Mashadi Jews are a unique example of the powerful force of adherence to Judaism against all odds.

Future wars?

2011-12-27T08:18:00.000+02:00

Two articles in the Jerusalem Post with provocative titles caught my attention: "War is really going out of style" by Joshua Goldstein and Steven Pinker (reproduced from the New York Times) and "Islamism: the Communism of the 21st century" by Barry Rubin." Now, in principle these two articles have completely different views of what the future holds.

The former avers that war is getting less and less likely, that the mega-wars of the past, WWI and WWII, will never be followed by a sequel called WWIII, that the great powers have not fought each other since the Korean War, that the European powers that used to indulge in wars regularly have not done so for many years, and that the typical wars now are relatively low level local flareups that are over in a few months. By contrast, the latter article makes the supposition that we are in for a long protracted period of warfare, in which the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated North African countries join together with other Sunni elements, Saudi Arabia and various terrorist groups, with possible support from Shia Iran, and declare war on the West, the US, EU and Israel. This is seen as a parallel to the "Cold War" that existed between the West and the Communist dominated countries, including Russia, Eastern Europe, China and others. They can't both be right, so which one is the most likely to be right.

The basis for the concept that the probability of war is diminishing is that the number of people (both combatants and civilians) actually being killed in wars each year has actually diminished according to statistics since WWII. Apparently, even the last Gulf War in 2003 that killed 5,000 US and ca. 100,000 Iraqis, was not enough to reverse the trend, and it is now over. Neither the Afghanistan war, nor the Libyan civil war that finished recently killed enough people to change the trend. Also, the 5,000 or so killed in Syria and the few hundred killed in the past few years in the Israel-Palestine conflict do nothing to alter this trend. One explanation given for the trend is that more countries are now democracies (the former Iron Curtain countries, the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia) and democracies don't fight wars with each other. Also, the basis for war was that larger land mass resulted in greater economic power, but that isn't true any more with technology replacing food and other natural products as the main source of commerce. Another factor is the general concept of human rights that has taken hold throughout the world and thru the United Nations (however broken that organization might be) that war as a means of settling disputes between countries and peoples is no longer acceptable. That the bombing of cities and tactics such as carpet bombing are strictly out-of-date. However, this article, written from what could be called a liberal humanist point of view, does not even mention Iran. Neither does it mention pure hatred as a cause of war, such as that manifested by Pres. Ahmediejad of Iran against Israel.

Barry Rubin in his article points out that there is no such thing as "moderate" Islamism, that the Muslim Brotherhood is an extreme anti-Western Islamist party from its origins and that there are already ties between these parties throughout N. Africa and indeed into Gaza controlled by Hamas, which is the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood (PM Haniyeh of Hamas is currently visiting Egypt), and into Syria, where the predominant opposition party to Assad is the Muslim Brotherhood. At the moment they are of course weak, militarily and economically. But, it takes a lot of self-deception for the West to believe that this combination will not in the future threaten Europe and the US. Rubin also does not dwell on Iran, the most likely cause of a proximal war. But, whether or not there is a war over Iran, the whole weight of the resurgent radicalized Muslim world can be expected to challenge the West in the not-too-distant future.

If I were to compare these arguments, I would say that the so-called trend, that the total number of casualties from wars may be decreasing, could quickly be reversed due to the growth of militant Islam. For example, the current war between Kenya and the Somali Al-Shabab and the continuing war in Nigeria between the Government and the Islamist Boko Haram. But the likelihood is that as the technological basis of war increases, wars will result in less casualties and will favor the more technologically developed side. For example, the increasing use of pilotless drones that can give pin-point targeting and other robots will reduce the loss of lives for both the attackers and the defenders. I think that wars will continue to be a feature of human societies, but that technological innovations, rather than other causes, will actually reduce the number of human casualties.

Street people

2011-12-26T08:17:00.001+02:00

On Thurs mornings at AACI-Netanya we have had a series of lectures on "Street People," people who have streets named after them in Israel, but whose story is relatively unknown to most people who use their streets. This idea was based on a book with the same name published by Helga Dudman in the 1970s. Here is a summary of the people who were presented and the presenters who each did a great job in researching their subject's history and telling their story.

Meir Dizengoff (1861-1936): First Mayor of Tel Aviv; presented by Jack Cohen and described in a blog on 17/11/2011

Golda Meir (1898-1978): Presented by Yoel Sheridan. Born Golda Mabovich in Russia, lived in Milwaukee, USA, moved to Israel in 1921 and became a kibbutznik, a Labor politician and the Fourth Prime Minister of the State of Israel. She has many streets named after her in Israel.

Shmuel Hanatziv (1870-1963): Presented by Elkan Levy. The Hebrew designation of Herbert Louis Samuel, First Viscount Samuel, British politician and diplomat, and first High Commissioner of the British Mandate in Palestine. The AACI offices are on this street.

Bracha Fuld (1926-46): German-born Holocaust survivor, educated in Britain and became Jewish resistance fighter in Palestine. Promoted to Platoon leader and died in battle fighting the Arabs. Fuld's story was presented memorably by historian Marjorie Glick whom I have asked to write an account to be included as a blog article.

James Grover McDonald (1886-1964): Presented by Jacques Korolnyk (who showed his video) and Leslie Portnoy. McDonald was a US diplomat who tried to help the Jewish cause both before and after WWII. Was appointed first US Ambassador to Israel. A street is named after him in Netanya and our Synagogue, often called "McDonald shool," is on that street.

Nahum Sokolow (1859-1936): Presented by Ray Cannon. Sokolow was second only to Chaim Weizmann in the leadership of the Zionist movement. Sokolow played a key role in obtaining the Balfour Declaration committing the British Government to establishing a Jewish homeland in Palestine. He was a peripatetic journalist and widely respected author.

Leon Pinsker (1821-1891): Presented passionately by Don Silverberg. Pinsker grew up in Odessa and had a Jewish-secular education. He was a physician, author and Zionist pioneer. He famously published "Auto-Emancipation" in 1882 that preceded Herzl's "Altneuland" by 20 years. He founded the Hovevei Zion (Lovers of Zion) movement and organized its first conference in Katovice in 1884. This resulted in ca. 80,000 Jews making aliyah. He greatly influenced the subsequent Zionist movement.

Since this series was popular, we have decided to organize another on "Unknown Heroes in Jewish history", including those figures who made important contributions, who may not have streets named after them, yet deserve our attention and respect.

Hamas joins the PLO

2011-12-25T08:16:00.000+02:00

It was announced after much negotiation that Fatah and Hamas have agreed that Hamas will join the PLO. What this means is unclear, although it doesn't amount to much. The PLO is moribund, it was considered the umbrella organization of the Palestinian national movement and contained about a dozen organizations, of which Fatah was the largest. Because Fatah has taken over control of the PA, the PLO has for a dozen years in effect been relegated to a cipher. Now suddenly, because they can't agree to merge, Hamas, that was the enemy of the PLO, has now agreed to join it. This agreement is supposed to heal the schism between Fatah and Hamas, but of course it does no such thing, it simply leaves them separate, but both members of an overall organization, that currently is a shell. As the Hamas FM said yesterday "Anyone who thinks that Hamas has changed its positions and now accepts the PLO's defeatist programs is living in an illusion."

Nevertheless, this agreement has significant implications. It means for Israel that Fatah/PLO have embraced Hamas, that is dedicated to Israel's destruction. Only last week, at the 25th anniversary celebrations of Hamas in Gaza, bloodcurdling speeches were made by Hamas leaders against Israel, including the glorifying of suicide bombers and the threat to destroy Israel and kill all Jews. If this organization is in the PLO and is co-equal with Fatah, Israel can no longer negotiate with Fatah over the fate of a Palestinain State.
It puts into question the whole idea of direct negotiations and a two-state solution, if the Palestinian side is partnered with a terrorist organization dedicated to destroying one of the states, namely Israel.

There is also the element of a "trick" in this maneuver, since the PLO is supposed to have recognized Israel as a State (although not a Jewish State) and if Hamas is under that umbrella they might be able to avoid actually making the commitment that the Quartet requires, without actually saying anything. However, they must also renounce terrorism and accept previous agreements, something that surely Hamas cannot do. So we shall see how they wriggle out of that. But, now is a transition period for Hamas, since their leadership has moved from Damascus (rats leaving a sinking ship) to Cairo, where they expect a more conducive regime. Perhaps this agreement to join the PLO is related to their move.

UNESCO, that now includes "Palestine" among its members even though Palestine is not a recognized state, has been giving funds to support publications of the PA. One of these, a teenage magazine named Zayzafouna, was found to contain anti-Israel articles, one of which glorified Hitler and supported killing of Jews. When this was brought to the attention of UNESCO they stopped the funding for this publication.. But, all the text books of the PA are anti-Israel and extort hatred and violence. They are funded by grants from the EU and its constituent countries, who are aware of this but do nothing about it. As far as they are concerned the PA can teach its children what they like, even while the same countries criticize Israel for its policies. Hamas, of course, glorifies suicide bombers and the killing of Jews (a Muslim precept) in their schools. If Fatah and Hamas unify, neither of them will have to change their textbooks.

EU hypocrisy

2011-12-23T18:47:00.002+02:00

Wednesday was the bloodiest day in Syria in 8 months, with an estimated 111 people killed by the Syrian army. Yet Israel's presumed European friends on the Security Council, Britain, Germany, France and Portugal did not condemn Syria, they took this moment to issue a statement condemning Israel. The reasons given were for continuing to build on the West Bank (including Jerusalem) and for the so-called "price tag" attacks on Mosques there. However, they failed to note that building is continuing because the Palestinians have repeatedly refused to enter direct negotiations with Israel and the "price tag" attacks have been carried out by a very small group of right wing extremists, who also attacked an IDF base and who are being arrested by the IDF.

PM Netanyahu had already spoken out forcefully against the attackers and stated that the full force of the law will be used against them and explicitly extended Israeli military law that is in force on the West Bank to these Israeli citizens. Furthermore, not a single person has been hurt or killed in these attacks, while blood is flowing profusely in Syria. What sheer hypocrisy! The EU SC members condemned these attacks as if they were carried out by the Israeli Government and did not even mention that the Israeli Government is strongly against these attacks. It's as if the US were condemned for white supremacist attacks against blacks or the British Government was condemned for the riots in British cities that were burnt down last summer.

Further, the EU statement called upon the two sides, Israel and the PA, to submit proposals of their views for the peaceful resolution of the conflict, without even mentioning the need for direct negotiations, as if the Security Council itself could resolve the conflict. They also ignored all previous UN positions that call for direct negotiations and ignored the current Quartet initiative that also calls for both sides to submit their proposals, but preparatory to direct negotiations. So why are these EU countries now meddling in this situation? Why do these EU countries shy away from resolutions condemning Iran and Syria, the real dangers to world peace, but attack Israel over what are in comparison relatively minor issues? One possible reason is that the EU countries wish to deflect attention from their own dire crisis by projecting attention onto Israel (this is popular) and also that if they need to pass a resolution on Syria they can then say they are being even-handed. On the other hand, it could simply be the result of endemic anti-Semitism. They are also taking this action while Iran is getting closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon, as stated yesterday by US Secty. of Defense Leon Panetta, who said they were about a year away from succeeding.

Israel and the US reacted strongly to this EU initiative in the UN SC. Israel issued a statement criticizing the EU nations for condemning democratic Israel, while taking action against extremists, and for taking in effect the complete Palestinian position. The US also reacted strongly and supported the Israeli position, pointing out that this initiative undermines the Quartet and all current attempts to bring about direct negotiations. Why would these US allies take this unilateral action without at least consulting the US Administration in advance? It makes no real sense, it was a cheap shot! All it does is give the Palestinians more hope that by avoiding direct negotiations they will eventually be given their own state on a platter without having to resolve any outstanding issues with Israel.

Death of a dictator

2011-12-21T18:45:00.000+02:00

Over the recent past we have seen the removal of many vicious Arab dictators, Saddam Hussein of Iraq, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. Zine-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Muammar Qaddafi of Libya and Abdullah Saleh of Yemen. Now the King of North Korea has died, Kim Jong-il, who inherited the position from his father. Permit me to express my pleasure at this event. Unfortunately, he had announced his successor, his third son Kim Jong-un, and so the monarchy will continue. It seems unlikely that his starved and servile people could do anything against the Stalinist regime that controls them, unlike the uprisings in the Arab countries and elsewhere.

It was announced that Kim Jong-il had died of a heart attack on a train ride, but like anything else from that closed, secretive country, it may not be true. This was announced three days after the event, so anything could have happened. He could have been shot by a dissident, one of millions who have suffered under his regime, or it could be that his successor or the military connived in removing him. He was unpredictable and corrupt. His regime has become like that of the pre-revolutionary Romanovs in Czarist Russia, living in opulence and adoration while the people starved. What is the point of it all if the cycle returns to the status quo ante? If only all such dictators could be removed, in N. Korea, China and Iran.

But, once again we are left with the problem of who will replace them. Democracy is not a single election, nor a general desire for freedom from dictatorial control. It must grow over time, with the development of organizational frameworks, with transparency and minority rights. While the number of countries which are nominally democracies are increasing, who would have believed that Iraq and Egypt would be democracies, their long-term adherence to what for them is a strange and cumbersome system, cannot be assured. In his watershed book, "The End of History" Francis Fukuyama pointed out that democracies do not go to war against each other, simply put the people in a democracy do not choose to fight wars. Given that principle it is of immense importance to Israel and the world that what is a very fragile flegling democratic movement in the Arab world be successful. Only time will tell. But, the people of N. Korea will have a longer wait for this outcome.

Spanish Ambassador's visit

2011-12-20T18:42:00.002+02:00

The Spanish Ambassador Don Alvaro Iranzo visited Netanya Academic College with his cultural attaché Mrs. Victoria Ortega on November 29, 2011 in what was an historic and significant visit. Not only was this the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Spain and Israel, but it represented a renewal of relations between Spain and the Jewish people in a very meaningful way.

The Ambassador was greeted by Prof. Zvi Arad, President of NAC, and Prof. David Altman, VP of NAC. Prof. Arad stated that the culture of the Jewish people was partly created in Spain. He pointed out that the establishment of the new International Institute for the Study of Secret Jews (Anusim) at NAC was a way to strengthen ties with Spain and with the Spanish Government. The recognition of the descendents of the "marranos" (anusim in Hebrew) in democratic Spain is a key to improve communications between the Jews and the Spanish. Prof. Arad pointed out that the NAC is a growing institution and now is surrounded by a new area of east Netanya that contains some 20,000 people. Prof. Altman said that he was very happy to have the Ambassador visit and mentioned how he had met former PM Moratinos in Madrid, whose son after doing some research had determined that they were descendents of marranos themselves. So this subject is very close to the heart of Spain.

In response, the Ambassador spoke at length about his dedication to the cause of improving Spanish-Israeli relations. He agreed that this was an exceptional moment and he was extremely happy to be participating in it. He stated that when he was growing up in Spain he knew nothing about Sepharad and was never taught the history of that time. Apart from learning about the expulsion of 1492, he knew nothing of Maimonides and the whole history of the relationship. Until Spain became a democracy and relations were established 25 years ago he knew nothing of the 5 centuries of oblivion of the Jewish people in Spain. Now he is aware of the Jewish past and is aware how important Sepharad is for the Jewish people.

The Jewish history and contributions to Spain should be a source of pride, how enormous wealth was created and how the short but spectacular Golden Age had elevated Spanish culture. Only after the expulsion of the Jews did Spain go into a slow, long decline that only now Spanish historians and people are beginning to acknowledge. He stated that with the combination of Israeli innovation and Spanish production and marketing great things could be accomplished. But, this would require the involvement of the civil societies in both countries and the provision of funding. Spain had taken a first step in the foundation of Casa Sepharad-Israel to assist in improving relations, but much more needs to be done. In Spain, the blank page of 5 centuries of the secret Jews must be revealed and Sephardic studies must become a major area of Spanish endeavor. In the 1920s there was interest in the presence of Ladino in Turkey and elsewhere, but that interest had been over-shadowed by other events. Spain must become a center of Anusim studies, particularly in relation to Majorca where there are ca. 20,000 "chuetas": who have remained isolated and who must be helped in discovering their roots. Together with NAC, that can become a hub for Anusim studies, Spain must be open to learn more and must benefit from advances in research on this subject, this is a historic task!

Prof. Arad described the plan to establish a new museum on land owned by the College with the cooperation of the Netanya municipality. But, a donor was needed for the building. This could be a possible collaboration with a focus on Spain. It would be an investment in having Israelis go to Spain to see for themselves the heritage of Sepharad. The Ambassador agreed that student exchanges at the secondary school level could be very helpful and in a recent meeting with the Minister Mr Gidon Saar they had discussed this possibility as part of the school curriculum. Prof. Arad mentioned that a similar project was being planned with pupils in Bethlehem and Amman, Jordan with Israel. Such a project could bring a fulfilment of the story of the Jews of Spain.

Prof. Corinaldi, Director of the Institute for Anusim Studies, suggested that Segura, a leader of the Anusim of Majorca should be invited to visit Israel. He had been here before many years ago. But, starting activities in Majorca made sense, the "chuetas" there still suffered social discrimination and are still secret Jews. The Ambassador said that things were improving fast for the better, and he knew this because his wife is from a Majorcan Anusim family. Prof. Corinaldi insisted that now was the time to take action for the salvation of the Chuetas. The Ambassador pointed out that this was a private choice, many do not want to return to Judaism and discrimination is an internal Spanish problem. It was suggested that a joint conference on the chuetas of Majorca be organized at the NAC on September 2012. It was agreed that this should not focus on religion as such.

Gloria Mound, Senior Advisor to the Institute, said she was very pleased to see the Ambassador at NAC and hoped that communication with Casa Sepharad-Israel could be improved, as they had been with Barcelona and Girona. Rabbi Moshe Pinchuk described a program he has developed for foreign diplomats to improve their understanding of Israel.

Prof. Altman summarized that collaboration between the religions, Christianity, Judaism and Islam, as it was during the Golden age in Spain, could be realized again, but only in Spain. Perhaps the EU would be willing to fund such a project. He asked why should Jewish youth only visit the sites of the camps in Eastern Europe and have the "march of living" there, there should be a similar parallel program in Spain, that would be of mutual interest to both Israel and Spain, both from the point of view of education, understanding and tourism.

The Ambassador and his entourage then visited the Leslie (z"l) and Gloria Mound Library focusing on the history of the Secret Jews (Anusim) in the NAC library.

Israeli democracy

2011-12-19T18:41:00.000+02:00

There is a lot of fuss right now about discrimination against women in Israel. Our great friend, Secty of State Clinton, even compared the situation of women in Israel to that in Iran. How absurd! If I were to compare Israel with any other western country I'd say that women are much better represented here than in most of the West. For example, the Chair of the Supreme Court is a woman, Dorit Beinisch. There are leading women representatives in the Knesset, the leader of the opposition is a woman, Tzipi Livni, Limor Livnat is a former Education Minister and Anat Wilf is a leading member of the new Independence Party.

What the fuss is mainly about is the segregation of men and women on a very small number of public bus lines that run thru the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) neighborhood of Mea Shearim. Of the people living there only a small minority of this minority try to enforce segregation on women and try to force them to sit in the back of the bus. Since the buses are public property, that is totally illegal, and if the police are called they must prevent this practice. In fact, for a while these bus lines were stopped becsue of this practrice. What is most disturbing is that some women segregate themselves by going to the back of the bus so that they are not accussed of immodesty. This is sheer nonsese and in fact this situation applies to only a tiny percentage of the female population. But, even then it is wrong in principle, and PM Netanyahu as well as Chief Rabbi Yona Metzger and other leading Rabbis have condemned the practice.

Have no fear, women in Israel will not be discriminated against and rumors that Israeli democracy is in danger from bills that have been presented in the Knesset, but haven't even been passed yet, let alone become law, are grossly over-stated. The Bill to have the Supreme Court judges vetted by the Knesset is not anti-democratic, in fact it is the process used in the US. The Bill to have foreign contributions to certain NGOs limited by law is not US Government. There are currently no anti-democratic bills in force in Israel and neither will there be. Israel is a vibrant and active democracy, as anyone who comes here can see for themselves. Don't let anti-Israel commentators who focus on and twist anything remotely critical of Israel fool you.

Syrian fulcrum

2011-12-18T18:45:00.000+02:00

The historic US withdrawal from Iraq will have significant consequences. It was inevitable that the US would withdraw, since that was Obama's policy from the start. But, the consequent power vacuum will tempt some to try to replace the US by bringing down or subverting the Iraqi Government. The US has helped train a large Iraqi army, but although they look impressive there are big questions about their loyalty and fighting capability. Since Iraq has a Shia majority and since the Government is Shia- dominated, there is no real reason why Iran, Iraq's most powerful neighbor, should invade or use military force to take over Iraq. It will have enough influence with the Shia Government to ensure that its wishes are followed. However, there are still Shia extremists, such as the forces of Mohtada Sadr, that might be tempted to try to overthrow the relatively moderate Shia Government, and the Sunni forces, which have been relatively quiescent lately, might try to reestablish the status quo ante, i.e. a Sunni dictatorship or an al Qaeda insurrection.

Aside from these possibilities, the fact is that Iraq under the Shia Government will likely cooperate with Iran. That means that for the first time there will be a continuous Shia arc from Iran thru Iraq and Syria to Hizbollah in Lebanon. This will allow the transfer of arms, materiel and fighters with greater ease than before Saddam was overthrown and the US forces were in Iraq. Such a facilitation of Iran's interests would have a negative effect on the outcome in Syria, possibly prolonging Assad's pro-Iranian regime and bolstering Hizbollah. So this would have very negative consequences for Israel and the West. But, if the Iraqi regime does not allow Iranian arms to flow thru their country, then the Assad regime in Syria might collapse, with negative consequences for Iran, and positive consequences for Israel. Also, the Syrian opposition forces have stated that they will not be allies of Iran. The outcome in Syria is the key to near future consequences in the region.

It is a great shame that so far the UN has failed to take any concerted action on Syria, unlike the former comparable situation in Libya. According to UN estimates the number of people killed in Syria has risen to 5,000, and Russia has just introduced a compromise resolution in the UN Security Council that is currently being discussed. What prompted this change in Russian policy? One can be sure that the Russian Government has reassessed the situation, and with the growth of counter-attacks by the independent Syrian Army made up deserters and the support given by Turkey to the opposition, the Russians have concluded that the survival of Assad is in doubt. Therefore they have softened their position. With the Americans out of Iraq we will now see, with Syria as the fulcrum in the Middle East, which way it will go.

Middle East refugees

2011-12-15T08:23:00.001+02:00

Whenever someone hears the phrase "Middle East refugees" they think of the Palestinians, mainly because the Palestinian refugees have been made into an international cause celebre. But, in fact there were more Jewish refugees in the Middle East than Arabs. However, their narrative has been entirely lost and overlooked in the whole context of the Middle East situation. While there have been ca. 150 resolutions of the UN on the Palestinian refugees, there have been none, zero, on the Jewish refugees. Further, the UN agency specially established to perpetuate the Palestinian refugee problem rather help them integrate in Arab countries, UNWRA, has spent ca. 3.5 billion dollars on them in the past 60 years, but nothing has ever been spent on the Jewish refugees. In effect there was an exchange of populations (ca.750,000 Palestinian Arabs for ca. 850,000 Arab Jews) between Israel and the Arab countries.

On Tuesday in the AACI lecture series at Netanya College we heard the story of Linda Menuhin, born Linda Abdul Aziz in Iraq, who was one of nearly a million Jewish refugees from Arab countries who came to Israel in the wake of the establishment of the State. It is important to note that they were refugees who were indigenous to the Middle East, hence their organization named Jimena, Jews Indigenous to the Middle East and North Africa. Jimena has assumed a hasbara role to introduce the symmetrical tale of the exchange of two populations of refugees.

The Jewish refugees were not only ignored by the international community, but also by successive Israeli Governments, who lumped them in as immigrants with the rest of the population, including many Holocaust survivors from the camps of Europe after WWII. They were granted Israeli citizenship and even though they were initially housed in tents in camps, called ma'abarot, that dotted Israel in the early 1950's, they were never registered as refugees. In effect, by integrating them into the Israeli population their story and their rights were neglected and ignored. The value of the property stolen from these refugees by Arab countries (Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Morocco) estimated at 100 billion dollars, far exceeds the value of the property left by Palestinians when they fled Israel during the Israeli War of Independence in 1948.

There is ample documentation of the plight of these Jewish refugees. There is an excellent pamphlet by Martin Gilbert entitled "The Jews of Arab Lands" published in 1976, recently followed by his extensive history "In Ishmael's House, a history of the Jews in Muslim Lands." Although this topic was ignored for many years, several events have recently brought it to the fore, the Knesset recently passed a law requiring the Israeli Government to represent the rights of these refugees in any negotiations with the Arab side. In his latest hasbara video Deputy Israeli FM Danny Ayalon discusses the refugee question and includes the Jews for Arab Lands, Dan Diker Secty. General of the World Jewish Congress, also put the cause of Jews from Arab lands as a priority item on their agenda and the David project released a couple of years ago a video entitled "The Forgotten Refugees," (available on YouTube) which was screened at the lecture.

Linda told us her own moving story. That her ancestors had been in Iraq for 1,000 years before the advent of Islam in the Arab pennisula . How in 1941 with the fall of the Iraqi anti-Semitic Government Nazi style, the mob fomented riots called "the Farhud" in Arabic, meaning "dispossession." Meanwhile the British troops stationed outside Baghdad overlooked the looting and killing. This was a major milestone that pushed out Iraqi Jews from Iraq. How she grew up both in a stable Middle class Jewish home, yet was surrounded by constant fear. Her father became an influential lawyer with many Arab clients, and when after the establishment of Israel the majority of the 130,000 Iraqi Jews left. Her father, a lawyer, was appointed the registrar of their property, so the Iraqi Government had a complete detailed listing of all property confiscated by their decree. Through many ups and downs her father decided to remain and he was discreetly promised a passport by the authorities, as he was adamant not to leave illegally. There was a bloody coup led by the Ba'ath Party in 1968 and things got much worse for the Jews.and their number decreased to ca. 3,500. Linda and her younger brother decided they must leave and so in 1970 they went in disguise to the north dressed as poor Arabs with only small bags. Since Jews were forbidden to travel a distance of more than 80 kms from their home, they sat at the back of buses in order to avoid identification by the guards at checkpoints. They arrived in the Kurdish area where they were met by Pesh Merga, the Kurdish fighters who were armed and trained by Israel and were brought on mules over the border to Iran and from there to Israel. Her mother also escaped with her younger sister, but her father waited until he received his passport. But, then he was the first Jew that was kidnapped to be followed by 21 more who disappeared without a trace.

Ba'ath means "renaissance" in Arabic, and the party was founded in Lebanon by a French-speaking Christian Arab named Michel Aflaq who based it on the National Socialist (Nazi) Party of Germany. The Ba'ath Party took power in a coup in Syria in 1963 and in Iraq in 1968. In effect, both regimes were fascist regimes and were virulently anti-Jewish. The Ba'ath regime of Saddam Hussein lasted until 2004 when he was defeated by the US forces, and that of the Assad family in Syria is currently engaged in a civil war for its survival.

Linda having been Head of the Middle East affairs desk of the Israel Broadcasting Association (IBA) News from 1981-1991 and Foreign Press liason with the Israeli Police from 1995-2000 is a freelance commentator and writer on Arabic and Middle Eastern affairs. In her work she tries to build bridges to Arab-speaking counterparts and has many contacts with Palestinians and Iraqi Arabs. She believes that reconciliation will only be achieved when there is mutual recognition of the suffering of both sides in the Middle East.

Newt's law

2011-12-12T08:21:00.000+02:00

Newt Gingrich, the current front runner in the Republican Presidential race, was being interviewed for a Jewish program and was asked his opinion of the Palestinian leadership. He replied succinctly that they are all terrorists and he gave his opinion that the Palestinians are "an invented people." Basically, he argued, they are Arabs and as such have no right to be in the Jewish Holy Land. Although at this time the candidates are falling over themselves to attract Jewish votes, when Newt was criticized for his opinions and called "a racist" by several spokesmen of the PA, at the latest candidate's forum he stuck to his guns.

Actually, in fact, Newt is correct. There is no evidence for a Palestinian people in history separate from other Arabs until ca. 1964. When Abu Rudeineh in response to Newt said that the Palestinians have lived here for thousands of years, he was speaking sheer nonsense and actually lying. The Arabs were in Arabia until after Muhammed formed the Muslim armies and then captured Jerusalem from the Byzantines (Greek Christians) in 637 ce. There is no evidence of any Arab presence in what was then the Holy Land until that date. They subsequently built the Mosques that stand on the Temple Mount, where the Jewish Temple once stood until it was destroyed by the Romans in 70 ce and that was then replaced by a Byzantine Church which the Arabs destroyed. The Jews had an independent kingdom here 2,000 years before the Arabs arrived on the scene and conquered the area.

In the Ottoman Empire the area that is now Israel/Palestine was called Southern Syria and the Arabs living there were indistinguishable from those in neighboring areas. This remained true after the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948. Although the bulk of the fighting against Israel was carried out by the armies of the surrounding Arab states (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq), there were Palestinian Arab contingents, although there is no evidence that they considered themselves distinct in any way (language, religion, culture) from the others. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was founded originally by the Egyptian secret service of Pres. Nasser in 1964 and Yasir Arafat (born in Cairo, educated at Cairo University) was appointed its head. But, it was only with the defeat of the Arab armies in the "6-Day War" of 1967 that Arafat moved from Cairo to the Gulf area and the PLO adopted an independent course. Still, the so-called Palestinian Arabs are indistinguishable from their fellow Arabs in surrounding areas in all respects. Thus, they are an "invented people."

But, whether or not this is true, the question arises, is this a smart approach. If you want to pretend that there is a "peace process" or a real chance for peace, which is the liberal view, then it's not a good statement. However, what is the point of Israel making more concessions to the PalestinIans in order to entice them back to the negotiating table, if they have no intention of going anyway. In the Middle East of all places, particularly when there are so many unknowns now, it makes no sense for Israel to make any concessions, until the dust settles, if it ever will. What is needed in the ME is a complete re-think of western strategy, it should be "Iran first," take care of Iran and then the other conflicts may fall into place. We need realpolitik, not sentimental illusions. So let Newt be Newt, and if he is the Republican candidate, so be it; then I for one would vote for him any time over Obama.

EU crisis

2011-12-11T08:20:00.000+02:00

What was a Eurozone economic crisis has become a full-fledged EU political crisis, with Britain isolated from the rest of Europe. How did this happen? It's too complex for me to understand or explain, but here goes anyway.

The EU was established by agreement of 12 European nations through the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, which established the EU as a political and economic union (hence there are 12 stars on the EU flag). There were two reasons for this, first the wish to avoid any future wars in Europe that had torn the continent apart and resulted in the deaths of millions of people, so it was important that Germany, France and the UK be an integral part of the EU. The other reason was economic, it made no sense for a truck travelling from say Britain to Italy or Romania to go through so many borders and monetary zones. Removing borders and converting to a single currency, the euro, solved these problems. But, some countries were reluctant to have their currency and their financial decisions under the control of others, so they opted out of part of the subsequent agreements that established the Eurozone. One of these was Britain, so the pound continues to exist as a separate currency, while the Deutschmark, the Franc, the Lira and the Drachma ceased to exist. The EU gradually expanded to 27 members as other Eastern European countries joined, but the Eurozone remained only a part of the EU, namely only 17 countries out of 27. In order to have countries join the Eurozone the economic requirements were made quite liberal and even ignored, so that while national debt was supposed to be less than 10% of GDP, in some cases, such as Greece, this was overlooked.

Since the EU has no cross-national economic organization (except the European Central Bank), it was unable to deal with the crisis that arose when countries such as Ireland, Portugal and then Greece, began to default on their debt payments and could have gone bankrupt. Since they were using the euro, the Eurozone had to bail them out by making ever increasing loans to them. Greece for example received a total loan of ca. 200 billion euros. Part of the mechanism adopted to avoid either a country leaving the Eurozone or defaulting on its debt resulted in the establishment of an EU Emergency Fund, that has now been funded with 500 billion euros, as well as 200 billion euros loaned to the IMF to help further countries from defaulting, such as possibly Spain and Italy.

I would liken this situation to that which existed in the US during the "depression" and the stock market crash of 1929. As a result of the terrible havoc that caused, the US Government expanded the role of the Federal Reserve, that can take independent steps to prevent such huge downward fluctuations in the market, extending over the whole of the USA. This is what the EU needs, but because it is still made up of independent countries, this cannot be done easily. It would require actually establishing a Federal Union of Europe, or a United States of Europe, that most members are not prepared to accept because it would require them to give up too much autonomy.

So the EU members, some of who are of course also Eurozone members, decided that they need to modify the basic agreement of the EU in order to ensure that such potential defaults do not occur again. In order to do this they recommended certain changes to the EU treaty itself, that would include the expansion of the role of the European Central Bank, and tough new budget rules, etc. At the meeting in Brussels in the past few days, this was discussed. But, PM Cameron representing Britain, refused to agree to these changes. He argued that the UK has the largest financial center in Europe and he needs to protect it and the pound, so he excercised his veto over the proposed EU changes. This has angered Pres. Sarkozy of France and Chancellor Merkel of Germany, who are the principal leaders of the EU and the Eurozone.

So now there are many possible courses. The UK could leave the EU altogether. Some argue that there never should have been a separate EU and Eurozone, the two should be synonymous. Also, that the EU cannot exist without a strong financial organization, as if it were a federation, and countries that are not prepared to accept this must not be included. There are also those in Germany who argue that it is not fair that Germany be forced to subsidize the weaker economies of the southern tier of Europe such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy (as if New York, California and Ohio refused to subsidize Mississippi). So will it become the status quo ante with the EU collapsing or will the euro regain its value and shine once again? The results of this political and financial crisis could have enormous consequences.

Obama Administration unreliability

2011-12-09T08:18:00.001+02:00

Representatives of the Obama Administration spoke out last week on matters of international importance and in three cases their views sounded very tenuous, bordering on the anti-Semitic and anti-Israel.

The US Ambassador to Belgium, Howard Gutman, a Jew and the son of Holocaust survivors, in a speech at a conference on anti-Semitism, distinguished between "traditional" anti-Semitism and that stemming from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and said that progress in the peace process "would lead to a huge reduction of this form of labeled ‘anti-Semitism’ in Europe." Now this is precisely what the enemies of Israel have been saying for some time, its not that they are actually anti-Semitic, they really have nothing against Jews per se, but if Israel made concessions to the Palestinians and then made peace then all other problems, including supposed anti-Semitism would be resolved. This is a dangerous and perverted viewpoint that shows to what extent some well-meaning, liberal-minded Jews have accepted this canard, that anti-Semitism is due to Israel's policies and not the bias of the racists.

US Secty of State Hillary Clinton speaking at the Brooking's Institution Saban Forum in Washington, criticized Israel, specifically mentioning Knesset bills limiting funding for NGOs and the exclusion of women in the public sphere, as exemplified by gender separation on buses serving the haredi community and the controversy over women singing in public. While these have been considered relatively minor domestic issues in Israel, Clinton. by comparing the treatment of women in Israel with that in Iran, completely over-stepped the mark and exposed herself once again as an unreliable ally of Israel, who speaks out of both sides of her mouth depending on her audience. She has never publicly voiced her concern over the far more severe mistreatment of women in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. This is typical of the Obama Administration, that claims to be a strong ally of Israel but criticizes Israel before the Arab and Muslim world.

Secty of Defense Leon Panetta, also at the Saban Center think tank in Washington, said Israel must repair its relations with regional partners such as Egypt, Jordan and Turkey, thus putting the onus on Israel, and he criticized Israel specifically for the lack of progress in the so-called peace process with the Palestinians. He said in very undiplomatic language that Israel must return to the "damned table," not mentioning that the Palestinian side is stalling and has refused to negotiate, making several pre-conditions including a complete cessation of Israeli building on the West Bank, while PM Netanyahu has called for a return to negotiations numerous times without pre-conditions. This one-sided and unjustified criticism of Israel is typical of the Obama Administration. The fear is that if Obama were to be reelected for a second term, his evident animus towards Israel would once again come to the fore.

Meanwhile the Republican candidates are making the most of this apparent lack of solid Obama Administration support for Israel. Mitt Romney announced at the Republican Jewish Convention that if he is elected President his first foreign visit will be to Israel. Newt Gingrich has commited to recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in his Adminstration and possibly releasing Jonathan Pollard, and he and other candidates have said that they will cooperate with Israel in making sure that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon that could threaten Israel, US forces in the Middle East and the Arab allies of the US. Certainly they hope to attract American Jewish voters to their side and away from their traditional Democratic support. How successful the eventual Republican candidate is in this goal could determine the outcome of the next Presidential election.

IICC

2011-12-08T16:42:00.003+02:00

On Tuesday we went on a trip (tiyul) with AACI to the IICC. AACI is the Association of Americans and Canadians in Israel our English-speaking club in Netanya and IICC is the Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center. I have lived in Israel for 15 years and had never before heard of this organization, that was established in 1985 to commemorate the Israeli heroes who died in the service of the State while carrying out intelligence operations. The IICC was formed by the three arms of Israel's intelligence services the Shin Bet (responsible for internal security), the Mossad (responsible for foreign intelligence gathering and analysis) and Aman the Intelligence Corps of the IDF. More than that, the IICC sits in an obscure location on a small side street, which I used as a short cut going home from work and passed it many times without realizing that it was there. It would indeed require information and intelligence to find it.

It was founded by former intelligence officers to commemorate their fallen colleagues. The memorial consists of a stone maze with the names of the deceased carved on the walls. There is also a small synagogue containing a 120 year old Syrian Torah scroll that was one of over 100 rescued by the Mossad during the rescue of Syrian Jewry, and adjacent is a library containing a file on each individual, that contains official letters as well as material added by family members and friends. It should be emphasized that all this information is now public, although some individuals still cannot be named.

Part of the Center includes the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center that has a large library on intelligence and terrorism information as well as a tiny museum on terrorism (see www.terrorism-info.org.il) . This is a private organization that has ties to the formal State intelligence organizations and produces reports on various topics that contain only publicly available information. For example they produced the Report that was submitted as the official Israeli reaction to the Goldstone Report. We were shown an introductory video on the Center, then a video about one of the successful operations carried out in 1953, soon after the State was founded, in order to rescue Jewish children from Morocco, under the aegis of "Nativ" that was a part of the Mossad given the responsibility to rescue endangered Jews from anywhere in the world.

For this operation the Mossad recruited a young British Jew named David Littman, code-named "Mural," who was living in Switzerland with his wife and child. David was anxious to help Jews who were endangered, partly because as a historian he had studied the Holocaust. He was asked by the Jewish Agency to go to Morocco and see if he could rescue 500 Jewish children, but he was unaware that he had been recruited by the Mossad. He took his family with him and posed as a British Christian under a false identity. He set up an office in Casablanca that was a charity offering free holidays in Switzerland to children under stress. He made contacts with the Swiss and British diplomats and Moroccan authorities. He was accepted as genuine by them and he then signed up children for the holidays, all of whom incidentally were Jewish. The Moroccan authorities granted him mass visas for 100 children at a time, and he successfully rescued 530, some by boat and some by plane. From Switzerland, from a genuine holiday villa, the children were then transported to Israel. Neither the children nor their parents actually knew that Israel was their destination, although many suspected this. After the success of Operation Mural, the Moroccan authorities, maybe partly out of embarrassment and partly out of the realization that they could not prevent the Jews from leaving, allowed ca. 100,000 Jews to be transported by sea via France and Italy to Israel. The parents of the rescued children joined them in Israel. Incidentally LIttman's wife Gisele, who was expelled from Egypt with her parents in 1957, writes under the nom-de-plume of Bat Yeor and authored a famous book entitled "Dhimmi," the Arabic for protected minorities.

After lunch we also heard a lecture by Prof. Yoram Kahati on "Radical Islam", in which he described the modern origins of radical Islam from Hassan al Banna who founded the Muslim Brotherhood in 1928 and Said Kuttub (Sayid Qutb) in Egypt in the 1940's to Yussuf Qaradawi, the Muslim cleric who has justified under Islam much of the current terror used against Israel and the West. He also explained the symbolism that is used by the terrorist groups such as Hizbollah and Hamas in their flags and slogans and described their world-view. Altogether not a pleasant subject but very interesting and informative.

Egyptian election results

2011-12-07T20:17:00.002+02:00

The results of the Egyptian election are worse than expected. In the preliminary voting not only did the Moslem Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party receive ca. 40% of the votes as expected, but the Salafist fundamentalist Islamic party al-Nour received another ca. 25%. Between them they can form an Islamic government and control Egypt. While there are other stages of the election to continue for the upper house of Parliament and for the President, this result has some important consquences.

First, it sidelines all secular and liberal parties which received 13.5% of the vote, and some of them even stupidly boycotted the election, thus weakening their own representation. Second, while the army and the Islamists formed a temporary alliance in order to stop the rioting of the young secularists in Tahrir Square, now the army may switch its allegiance. The first thing that the mullahs did when they took over in Iran was to replace all the army generals and to organize their own militias, the Iranian National Guard and the Basij (militant youth). One of the first things that PM Erdogan did when he was elected in Turkey was to depose all the generals to prevent a coup against his Islamic PK party by the secular army and arrest most of them for plotting against his government, and then he replaced them with his own candidates. Now in Egypt it is likely that one of the first things a new Islamist government will do is to try to replace the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) with their own choices. This could lead to conflict and possibly a civil war. The Government will of course say that it has been democratically elected, which is true, but as in Iran and Gaza, one election is enough for them, and democracy will be immediately stifled. So the secular forces, the young and the urbanites may ally this time with the Army to prevent this takeover.

But, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists have their own differences, in effect they are rivals for largely the same constituency. The MB prefers to govern Egypt and take control by providing social welfare to their constituents. Since Egypt is basically bankrupt and receives most of its income from the US, the MB may be forced by pragmatic choice to tolerate the SCAF and continue to cooperate with the US. They also need income from tourism that is about 12% of their income. On the other hand the Salafists are determined enemies of the US, are against western tourism, consit largely of imams and religious leaders and cater more to the poor than the MB and want to replace Egypt and the other Arab countries with a new Caliphate. This may cause them not to go into a coaltion with the MB and may result in the government coalition being more moderate.

In the near future Hamas, the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood, will have to make a difficult choice. For the past 7 years, since they won the first and only election held for the Palestine Authority in Gaza, Hamas has ruled Gaza and has been a model for a Muslim Brotherhood mini-state, with one exception, they are allied to Iran, because Iran gives them arms and support. If Hamas wants to ally itself with the MB of Egypt they will have to break their alliance with Syria and Iran. In the media yesterday was a report that senior Hamas operatives are leaving Damascus in droves. But, then today Hamas denied this. However, there is no doubt that they cannot straddle the divide between the exteme Sunni MB and the extreme Shia Iran. They will have to choose and soon.

Reprehensible practices

2011-12-05T20:16:00.001+02:00

Under the influence of multi-culturalism many people think that all religions should be tolerated equally and noone should be prevented from carrying out their own religious or cultural practices. Of course, Jews feel that they should be able to continue the ritual slaughter of animals (shechita) as they have for thousands of years and not have this banned because they are told by enlightened liberals that it is animal cruelty. But, beyond such relatively harmless practices there are some that really go beyond the pale, and should be banned and some of them are in fact illegal in Western countries.

For example:
1. Honor killings. An Islamic women's group In the UK have recently estimated that 3,000 women were murdered and/or maimed last year by their own families (husbands, fathers, brothers) for dishonoring their family. The reasons vary, but they include having affairs, flirting with other men, reporting physical or sexual abuse to the authorities, preparing to run away or asking for divorce. In addition, other thousands of women and young girls are transported to Muslim countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc. to be married or sold against their will. Such honor killings and abusive treatment of women are routine in Muslim societies and are sanctioned by Sharia law.

2. Female circumcision, although not required by Sharia Law, this is a practice that has spread from Africa throughout the Muslim world. It is customary for girls at puberty to have their clitoris excised in what is often a barbaric and agonizing ceremony, where the girl is held down by relatives and cruelly treated without any form of sedative of anesthetic. By contrast, male circumcision is relatively minor and does not prevent sexual feelings but is carried out in Islam at puberty (instead of at 8 days after birth as in Judaism). It is estimated that there are millions of women who have had this treatment and yet it is still being practised in Muslim societies (there is a large literature on this).

3. Child brides, are very common in certain Islamic societies and children are married at the ages of 5 upwards to adult men. This is one way for poor people to earn income by selling their young daughters and for men to have more than one wife.

4. Bigamy. It is accepted under Sharia Law that a man may marry as many wives as he can afford, although he is supposed to treat them all equally. However, this is rarely the case, since men usually replace older wives with younger ones, until they run out of money or energy. This is one reason why Muslims oppose western influence, because they are afraid they will lose their control over their women.

5. Persecution of minorities: In Western secular societies it is illegal to persecute or mistreat minorities, but under Sharia Law it is accepted because anyone who is not a Muslim is considered to be an infidel (kaffir). Thus, Jews and Christians are treated as dhimmi, second class citizens, while Hindus and other "pagans" are subject to either conversion to Islam or death. When the Muslims invaded India in the 17th century and beyond they slaughtered unknown numbers of people, mainly Hindus and forcibly converted millions, hence the Muslim nations of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia. The Sikh religion, in which adherents are required to carry a knife, was formed as a response to this invasion of India and mistreatment by the Muslims.

6. Killing of apostates: Any Muslim who renounces Islam and/or converts to another religion must be murdered according to Sharia Law. Anyone who converts from Islam to Christianity or Judaism in any Muslim country is subject to arrest, torture and murder. Many people who support multiculturalism do not realize that the Muslims they tolerate would kill any of their adherants who might choose to change their belief system. Bahai and other minorities are treated so badly in Iran and elsewhere because they are regarded as heretical. In the West this kind of attitude has been superseded in liberal secular society in which we tolerate and protect freedom of belief.

7. Treatment of women; In strictly Islamic societies, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, women must be covered (usually all except their eyes) and are not allowed out in public except if accompanied by a male relative, even a young son. They must also have written permission to be out in public if going on a journey that requires travel, such as to another city or abroad. In addition women must not be seen to talk to any male stranger, such an action can result in women being punished and even physically abused. In some societies, such as Pakistan, courts administering Sharia Law can order women or girls to be raped by men of an opposing family or clan in order to satisfy their claims.

All of these practices are considered unacceptable in civilized society. Islamic society and laws must be changed to outlaw these reprehensible practices. However, with the victory of Muslim parties in north African countries, it is expected that Sharia Law will be applied as the law and this represents a regression for otherwise secular societies such as Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and even Egypt. It is ignorant and totally unacceptable that in a speech yesterday Secty of State Hillary Clinton likened the supposedly worsening situation of women in Israel to that in Iran.

Mysterious explosions

2011-12-04T20:15:00.000+02:00

Once could be an accident, twice could be chance, but three times is a charm. There have been three major explosions recently, two in Iran and one in Lebanon. These are in addition to the targeted killings of several leading Iranian nuclear scientists, whose cars mysteriously blew up. In Iran on Nov 12 a massive explosion at a missile production facility in Boghadam 30 km from Tehran killed 36 members of the Iranian National Guard including the head of the rocket design project, Gen Moghaddam. He was so important that his funeral was a national ceremony attended by Ayatollah Khamenei and PM Ahmedinejad. At first Iran reported the explosion as an accident, then they denied it, and finally they said it wasn't really important.

On Nov 23 in south Lebanon near Tyre, a Hizbollah arms cache exploded killing a number of terrorists. Once again there were reports of the incident and photos of the huge smoke plume, then it was denied, even though the area was cordoned off by Hizbollah guards and no-one was admitted, including the UNIFIL forces that were supposed to prevent Hizbollah having any arms in that area. Finally, on Nov 28 a huge explosion or series of explosions occured in a major nuclear facility near the city of Isfahan causing the whole city to shake. Air reconaissance photos that were released later showed that several buildings in the facility were destroyed beyond repair.

The question is how did these explosions happen and who did it? Arab and Iranian commentators blamed Israel for somehow triggered these explosions, but the question is how could they do this so far within enemy territory. We can rule out actual soldiers, such as paratroopers, getting in and causing the explosions, because they would leave a trace or be captured by the enemy. That leaves two other possibilities, either drones were sent in and fired rockets to set the explosions off, and it is known that now the IDF has drones that can effectively hover silently for hours and are deadly accurate. Or Israel has found a way to cause munitions to explode from a distance. One possible means (and here I am speculating) is the use of some form of radiation that can heat a detonator from a distance. Whatever the mechanism, there is no doubt that the Iranian National Guard and Hizbollah will have to come up with some new form of security since their armaments are clearly now vulnerable whereever they are. Short of an actual war, it is likely that Israel will continue to hamper the progress of Iran towards their goal of developing a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it. With Israel's incredible intelligence capability, nowhere in Iran or in south Lebanon is now safe.

Thank you North Dakota

2011-12-02T20:14:00.000+02:00

You don't often hear about North Dakota, a remote sparsely populated State. But, today a milestone was passed thanks to N. Dakota, the US became a net exporter of oil after more than 60 years. No more dependence on Arab oil! A record finding of oil under N. Dakota estimated at 4 billion barrels, has now begun to be exploited. Production is booming and is only just getting under way using modern techniques including horizontal drilling. Other finds in Montana and Colorado has made the US the country with the largest oil reserves in the world, now above Saudi Arabia and Russia.

This has tremendous implications, first the Arab States can no longer blackmail the US by denying oil in any political situation. Second, the price of oil in the US and around the world should stabilise, thus not adding to the difficulty of the current economic situation. Third, the recent emphasis on non-carbon sources of energy other than fossil fuels, such as solar, wind and tide, will be partially reduced. That is not to say that we don't need non-polluting electric cars, its that the urgency of that need has somewhat abated.

Of course, Europe and Japan are entirely dependent on Middle Eastern oil supplies and the denial of oil to them could trigger a world-wide economic catastrophe. But, now with the US able to partially fill that gap the outcome might not be as bad. For example, if there were a war with Iran over its development of nuclear weapons, and the Straits of Hormuz was blocked by Iran to oil tankers, the effect would not be as catastrophic as it might have been before the US became a net exporter of oil.

If at first...

2011-12-01T20:13:00.000+02:00

All the countries that have been affected by the recent uprisings in the Arab world are now in the process of being taken over by extremist Muslim parties (so-called "moderate" Islamists). In Tunisia, Libya and Morocco the far right has won the elections, and in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to win. The "Arab Spring" has turned into a "Muslim Winter." In Egypt the secular and liberal opposition has effectively vanished and the people have voted their preference. In Syria the opposition demonstrations against the Assad regime are led mainly by the Muslim Brotherhood. That leaves Jordan, Saudi Arabia, that is already Wahhabi and the Gulf States that are more western in their approach.

A cursory look would convince anyone that this trend bodes ill for Israel. The Islamist approach is fanatically anti-Israel and anti-Semitic. A few days ago there was a gathering at the al-Zahar University in Cairo, the leading Islamic Institution in the Arab world (!), and there were chants of "kill all the Jews", etc. These people mean business, this is no idle threat. However, this is not to say that the whole of the Muslim Brotherhood in these countries are as bloodthirsty. But, enough of them are to pose a future threat.

When a Government is formed in each of these countries they will have to deal with severe problems, not least of which is the economic disaster. How can the Government afford to feed 88 million people in Egypt, in effect that is impossible. But, they could try as best they can, which will probably take them 20 years, or they can stir up the masses against Israel. But, their military forces are in disarray, they have been used mostly for repressing their own populations, especially in Libya and Syria. They don't have the funds to modernize and currently they present no challenge to the IDF. What is more likely is a wave of Muslim Brotherhood inspired terrorism against Israel. After all, Hamas that engages in terrorism against Israel, is in fact the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood off-shoot.

We must remember that the last major war fought by the Arab countries against Israel, before the peace treaty with Egypt was signed, was the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Israel fought the pan-Arab armies under Nasser in 1956 and 1967, the Egyptian nationalist forces under Sadat in 1973, and now we have the Muslim Brotherhood finally taking power. The young in Egypt do not remember the past defeats they suffered at the hands of the IDF. No doubt they would like to try again under the auspices of Islam. It may take them some time to get themselves worked up enough, but I predict that if Egypt abrogates the peace treaty with Israel, then there will be the build up to a confrontation again. It may take some years, during which the situation vis-a-vis Iran will perhaps be resolved. But, they feel they have the right and the duty to do this. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again!

All that Jazz!

2011-11-30T20:12:00.000+02:00

Last Saturday night we went to the first concert in our subscription series with the Herzliya Chamber Orchestra, conducted by Harvey Bordowitz. It was an excellent concert under the title "Pastoral Dreams" and featured a soprano, a clarinettist and included Beethoven's Pastoral Symphony (No. 6).

By contrast, this Saturday night we went to the last concert in the annual series of last concerts of Stanley Ross and the Stompers Jazz Band. They play unbelievably great Dixieland Jazz, and they have been playing together for so many years that they really play in harmony. Stanley is now 81, and although his face gets ruddy when he blows he still plays a mean trumpet. Stanley is from Glasgow where he started a jazz band in his teens. The concert was held in the hall of the Young Israel Congregation in Netanya. This was a great concert, with a full complement of excellent musicians: Larry Brant, from Long Island NY on banjo; Ed Mishnov from Russia on double bass; Zack Benson, drummer; Roy Rich on guitar, from Manchester; Evy Tamari on piano from Detroit; Amnon Ben Artzi, the Israeli trombonist; and the diminuitive Jacques Sany, French soprano saxophonist, who is a renowned artist who plays around the world and has played the Preservation Hall in New Orleans. This concert was superb and a great joy. Incidentally Stanley and the trombonist Amnon started the Band 28 years ago.

Monday we went to our regular noon Shearim Concert that usually features immigrants from the former Soviet Union. There was an excellent duo of Ilya Trost, cello and Galina Cheremushkin, piano, and they played Beethoven, Faure and Joplin.

Tues evening we drove to Jerusalem to hear a concert of Flamenco music at the Israel Museum celebrating the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Spain and Israel. We naievely believed that we would see Flamenco dancing, but we were disappointed, it was only a singer and a guitarist. Apparently the performer, Jose Merc, is a famous Flamenco singer, and was greeted rapturously by the audience. He was a tall, handsome man with long gray hair dressed all in black. He was accompanied by a wonderful guitarist, whose complex rhythms were fascinating. He also had two clappers, all they did was clap, although the rhythms were mesmerizing. However, we did not enjoy what passed for singing. Of course, we could not understand the Spanish, but it sounded like someone shouting while being strangled, and drowned. Obviously an acquired taste. Nevertheless, we ate out afterwards and it was a very pleasant evening.

Partition

2011-11-29T20:11:00.001+02:00

It was pointed out by Rabbi Ervin Birnbaum that Nov 29 is a historic day because it was the date of the vote at the UN on the Partition Plan of 1947, that was a major step in the founding of the State of Israel. But, on that date the UN did not recognize Israel!

To be specific:

1. The UN Partition Plan (res. 181) proposed the establishment of a Jewish and an Arab State in British Mandatory Palestine (as well as making Jerusalem an "international city") and was voted on 29 Nov, 1947 - but, it was never implemented as it was rejected by one of the sides - the Arabs (there were no Palestinians then). But, it did end the British Mandate of Palestine.

2. The State of Israel was proclaimed unilaterally by David Ben Gurion on May 14, 1948, a day before the War of Independence started (that's why May 15 is called Nakba Day by the Palestinians) when the Arab States invaded the nascent Jewish State. Individual states (USA, USSR, etc.) then subsequently recognized Israel.

3. But, the State of Israel was not recognized as a full member of the UN until May 11, 1949 - because actual membership at the UN after being proposed by a majority of the Security Council requires a majority of States to recognize the applicant.

Thus, the Partition Plan did not establish a Jewish State, Ben Gurion's declaration of independence did, but it was not actually recognized until 1.5 years after the Partition Plan!

Those who support unilateral Palestinian Independence should note this process. It was neither the Partition Plan, nor a unilateral declaration that makes a State recognized as a member of the UN, it is the recognition of its ability to control its territory, organize a government and maintain economic independence by a majority of the Security Council and the General Assembly. The aspiring State of Palestine, has none of these features.

The Rape of Europa II - Recovery

2011-11-28T17:00:00.002+02:00

Continuing the review of "The Rape of Europa" by Lynn Nicholson, describing the plunder of the cultural heritage of Europe by the Nazis during WWII and the attempts by the Allies to recover most of the treasures after the war.

While WWII was still in progress, both the British and Americans took extensive steps to protect their own artistic heritage. In Britain, warned by the depredations of the art of France by the Germans and in order to avoid the blitz on London, the British moved much of their museum and art inventories to castles in Wales and the north. Meanwhile in the US, the holdings of the museums of NYC and Washington were en route to the hinterland, to large houses in western Pennsylvania and further afield. Luckily the vast bulk of this materiel was protected and saved and returned in due course undamaged.

The US, aware of the danger to the treasures of Europe from their bombing, after much discussion established a group of experts who were assigned to each Army group, who would move with them once the invasion of Europe began. Because of the desire to protect monuments, these men were called "the Monuments Men." Their first attempt to produce maps with monuments shown on them was a failure, they were shipped to Italy and captured by the Germans, who had no idea what they were for and dumped them. The first test of the Monuments Men was in the invasion of Sicily, but so much went wrong there that it could only be called a learning experience under fire. For the most part the Germans stole and removed all valuable objects and destroyed much else, while the Americans and allies had little idea what they were supposed to be doing.

The first real test came in Italy, as the Allies gradually fought their way north and the Germans slowly gave way. In the chaos that ensued the movement and re-movement of the treasures of Rome and Florence in particular was like a dance without a choreographer. Some Germans tried their best to keep the treasures of Italy in Italy, while some, including the SS, tried as hard as they could to find their hiding places and transport them north. Much of the art of Rome ended up in the Vatican that was officially neutral, and much of the art of Florence ended up in minor stately homes and even in garages. It was a very mixed picture, often priceless treasures were strewn around with garbage and used for tables, but after all was said and done some 98% of the art of Florence was found intact. Almost all of it was returned amid great pomp to its owners, for which the Italian people were very grateful to the Allied forces.

The Allied invasion of France resulted in an even more chaotic situation. As the German Army retreated in France they sometimes destroyed everything, including burning down Chateaux filled with artworks, sometimes looted, and sometimes left things untouched. Similarly the advancing Allied soldiers were not averse to pilfering valuable artworks, which they shipped back home. As well as the Nazis in France moving their art spoils to the Fatherland, as the Russians approached from the East and the Americans and British from the West, within Germany artworks were moved and moved again, both away from the Russians and from the Americans. Much of it, including stolen objects from Jewish and other sources mixed in amongst them, were hidden in the salt mines in southern Germany and Austria, where the conditions of humidity and temperature were right for their storage. In addition, most of the Castles (Schloss) were completely full of stolen art works.

Because of the meticulous notes kept by Madame Valland of the Jeux de Paume gallery in Paris, the Monument Men had a list of German sites to which most of the art works had been shipped. One of them was the Neuschwanstein Schloss hoard containing the cream of French art including the impressionists and thousands of other paintings. In a vault behind a hidden steel door were boxes containing the stolen Rothschild jewelry and thousands of pieces of silver stolen from French Jewish collectors. The Monuments Men were able to post guards there to make sure none of it disappeared. In an adjoining room was a master list containing 20,000 entries each representing a stolen item. In another hoard they found the original compositions of Beethoven's symphonies. Tons of gold bars from the German national gold reserves and 400 tons of art from the Berlin museums was stashed In a salt mine. This required a major military convoy to take to a safe location in the rear.

According to the laws of war all this "loot" became the property of the US Government and could only be returned to other sovereign Governments, not directly to individuals. During the chaos of war so much had been looted, stolen and lost that to recover anything was considered a success. One French Jewish collector who survived the war in the US recovered 400 paintings out of 14,000 items that he had had in his collection. The art and culture of Europe had been dispersed and intermingled, yet much that was most important had miraculously survived intact.

Syrian pawn

2011-11-27T16:59:00.000+02:00

Don't be taken in by the apparent concern of the Arab League for the poor, suffering Syrian people. This is a strategic move by the Sunni Muslim world against the Shia. The Arab League is overwhelmingly Sunni, and currently it is backed by Turkey that is also Sunni Muslim. After supporting Pres. Assad of Syria, Turkey under PM Erdogan has now changed sides and supports the Arab League initiative to impose severe sanctions against Syria. On the other side are the Shia, i.e. Iran, Syria, that is an Iranian dependency, and Lebanon under Hizbollah.

For many centuries the Ottoman and Persian Empires were rivals for hegemony over the weak Arabs. That competition dwindled thru history as the Western powers took over, especially due to oil in the Gulf region. But, with the Iranian revolution and the ascendency of the Shia Ayatollahs and the move from secularism towards Islam in Turkey under Erdogan, that rivalry has returned. Turkey now wishes to be seen as the champion of the Sunnis, and since the Arabs are weak, Erdogan has seized the opportunity offered by the Arab League move against Syria. By targeting Syria while it is weakened by the internal insurrection, the Sunnis hope to force it back into their camp, which would be a major victory for the Sunnis and in fact for the West. Even though we do not know what the outcome of such a maneuver will finally be and whether or not the Iranians will make a counter-move to protect their investiment in Syria, the reduced effectiveness of Iran in the Middle East would be a net gain for Israel and for the US. But, note that Israel plays no direct role in this inter-Muslim rivalry.

In fact, the possibility of France, historically the guarantor of Christian Lebanon, taking a major role in this move to overthrow Assad as stated by Pres. Sarkozy, and the presence of a US aircraft carrier, the USS George W. Bush, off the Syrian coast, are major indicators to Iran, Russia and China that now the West means business in Syria. In effect Syria is Iran's Achilles heel, the weak point in its defensive armor. Don't expect a similar strategy as in Libya, but this time the Arabs themselves will play the lead role, under Turkish and Western protection, in trying to replace Assad. It could even become a direct confrontation between Turkey and Iran.

If the Assad Alawite regime in Syria were to fall, Iran would lose control over Syria and would no longer be able to supply Hizbollah with the weapons that it has delivered to them in the past. In the event of a war of Israel with Iran, even if Hizbollah were involved, it is unlikely that Syria would then also be involved and Hizbollah, not to mention Hamas, would not be able to be resupplied by Iran. So the removal of Syria from the Shia camp would be a major positive achievement of the Sunni Arabs that would also benefit Israel and the West.

Apartheid?

2011-11-25T16:58:00.000+02:00

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Last Sat night we went to our subscription concert of the Herzliya Chamber Orchestra conducted by Harvey Bordowitz at the Concert Hall in Herzliya. The title of the concert was "Pastoral Dreams" and it featured a very pleasant program, including Mendelsohn's Hebrides Overture "Fingal's Cave", Schubert "The Shepherd on the Rock", Canteloube's "Songs of the Auvergne" and ended with Beethoven's Pastoral Symphony (No. 6). The singer for the two vocal pieces (the Schubert and Canteloube) was Enas Masalha, an Israeli Arab soprano, who wore a slinky black lace dress and sang beautifully and was greatly appreciated by the audience. She was also accompanied by the Israeli clarinettist Shira Eliassaf of the Beersheva Chamber Orchestra. Masalha was trained at the Jerusalem Center for Music and Drama.

Yesterday we went to our Maccabi Kupat Holim (Health Fund) Pharmacy to pick up our monthly set of meds with the prescriptions from our doc. We also had several other items to pick up, and since there are two of us and we each had to show our Maccabi cards and then charge it to our account, its all a bit tricky. We were served by a young man, who was very helpful and who spoke some English. as wellas Hebrew. His name was Mohammed, and three of the four pharmacists serving at that time were Arabs (the women wear tight head scarves, but the men are difficult to distinguish, usually only by their accents). After receiving the meds I thanked him for his help, nothing special about that. There were many Arabs learning Pharmacy (about 50% of the class) when I was at the School of Pharmacy in Hebrew University.

In neither of these cases was anything said or noted about the fact that the person involved was Arab. In fact, to an uninformed observer it would have been impossible to distinguish the difference. Incidentally, one of the Judges on the Supreme Court who heard the appeal for the case of former Israeli President Katsav is an Arab. So much for the absurd charge of apartheid in Israel. By the way, after the pharmacy, we sat at a cafe in the nice weather and had a drink, next to an Arab couple with their kid. Just another ordinary day in the extraordinary Jewish State.
Re

An island of calm

2011-11-24T16:57:00.000+02:00

Israel is an island of calm in a very stormy Arab sea. Looking at the Middle East from a western perspective one must take note of the reality, whatever one's preferred ideological leaning. Most of the left was convinced that the "Arab Spring" was the precursor to a reawakening of the Arabs to the ideals of peace, justice and democracy. Most of the right was sceptical that from such violent beginnings there could emerge anything other than chaos and Islamic extremism.

So far it seems the right has been correct, in Tunisia and Libya there is little more to show for the "revolution" than the emergence of right wing extremist governments. In Egypt, the continuing clashes between the Army under the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the demonstrators has led to an agreement to speed up elections. However, it seems that the eventual outcome will be the same, the Muslim Brotherhood has a huge majority throughout Egypt. Syria is entering a civil war that will unleash great bloodshed, but as happened with Iraq and Iran in the 1980's, the Israeli mantra should be "let them kill each other." But, eventually the Sunni are likely to win and the outcome will be another pro-Muslim Brotherhood regime. During all this, Lebanon has ceased to be an independent state and is now under pro-Iranian Hizbollah domination. King Abdullah of Jordan, ever the survivor, to show his subjects his new identification with their anti-Israel bias, has quickly aligned himself with the projected united Hamas-Fatah Palestinian government in the making. So the Arab world is torn by instability, extremism and violence. PM Netanyahu said yesterday in an address in the Knesset that those calling for a quick Israeli move "had their heads buried in the sand." He said that those who urge him to "seize the opportunity and rush into an agreement are wrong." We can't know what the outcome will be and his "careful attitude was correct, smart and responsible."

Those leftists and liberals who vainly hope that a democratic system will emerge in Egypt are ignoring the clear signals emanating from the events in Cairo. First, there was the attack on the Israeli Embassy that barely ended without bloodshed. Then there have been numerous attacks on Coptic Christians in Egypt, who are about 10% of the population, including the burning down of Churches in several locations, including Alexandria. Finally, there have been continued attacks against women, such as the mob-rape of American TV journalist Lara Logan. Under these circumstances, anyone who still maintains that the resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict is the key to Middle East peace is terribly deluded. PM Netanyahu said that "an Islamist, anti-American and anti-Israel wave" is sweeping the MIddle East. In an unprecedented move the General Assembly, with Arab support, condemned the Syrian Government for its violent crack-down on dissent in Syria, with more than 3,500 killed so far.

We also have to deal with Iran's drive for local hegemony and its development of nuclear weapons. At last the Governments of the US, Canada and France have instituted new stringent sanctions against Iran, including stopping all financial transactions with the Iranian Government and National Bank. Similar sanctions were blocked in the UN Security Council by Russia and China. However, it is not expected that even these new sanctions would be enough to stop the Iranian regime from continuing to develop nuclear weapons. If there is a credible military option by Israel, it would have to be different in kind from previous such attacks, in which Israel amplifies its capabilities beyond those of a small distant country. In this case, Israel will likely use a fleet of large drones, equipped with major electronic warfare equipment, that can intercept and confuse all Iranian electronic messages. This will be a new kind of cyber-warfare, and the only hope to avoid it is if the Iranians believe that it is credible.

Back to the present

2011-11-21T16:47:00.001+02:00

I do not approve of "back to nature" movements. As if we can ignore the progress that civilization has made and forget science and medicine and retreat to simple, unspoiled lives. All this is an attempt to turn one's back on life as it is now, to retreat from its difficulties, as if that can improve things. If it were not for science and scientific medicine, then most of us would already be dead. Life-expectancy in the west has risen from ca. 50 to over 70 in the past 100 years. When reading about past generations it is amazing how many people died young because of an illness or infection that is now unknown, such as measels, chicken pox and consumption.

The anti-capitalism demonstrations are an example, instead of opposing the misuse of capitalism, such as Ponzi schemes by dishonest individuals and bankers who get enormous rewards, they want to throw out the bath water with the baby. Why don't they get honest jobs and work within the system? Just because the Euro is in difficulty due of the misuse and mistakes of incompetent and greedy politicians and bankers doesn't mean that it should be dispensed with. It is noteworthy that the three countries most affected by the current Eurozone crisis, Greece, Italy and Spain, have all replaced their Governments with technocrats, who are expected to do a more honest and pragmatic job. Why couldn't they have chosen such people in the first place?

But, being in favor of competent leaders is not exactly the same as being against back to nature or even back to the past movements. The Muslims who want to live like Mohammed in 8th century Arabia and seek to reestablish a Caliphate are symptomatic of this kind of impulse. But, they haven't learned that you can never go back, once the present is released from the bottle it cannot be forced back in. For example, the Cambodian Khmer Rouge, came up with the post-Communist notion that we should all leave the cities and live in the countryside like peasants, happy together in ignorance. But, in order to accomplish this they had to forcibly evacuate the cities, including Phnom-Phen, and murder ca. 1.5 million people out of a total of ca. 4.5, most with guns developed in the 20th century. Taking anti-colonialism that far is ludicrous and murderous. Fortunately the Khmer Rouge were defeated by the ordinary Communists of Vietnam. I wonder how many of the young anti-Capitalism protesters in Wall Street and St. Paul's Cathedral in London know about this unsuccessful experiment to reverse history.

Likewise, the Palestinians want to reverse history. They are pathetic, wallowing in their misnamed "refugee camps", exploited by their fellow Arabs, talking about the "keys" to their ancestral homes, while life and history has moved on. Now a large, powerful and modern State has grown in their place. It's up to them to come to terms with this or forever dwell in ignorance. The USA replaced a handful of Indian settlements, too bad for the Indians, but look what progress was wrought. There is no going back, it is an illusion, we must continue to move forwards.

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Friends, I am not feeling well, I have a cold! There will be a break for a few days in my e-mail blog. For past postings see ISblog: www.commentfromisraelblog.blogspot.com

Syrian follies

2011-11-18T16:46:00.000+02:00

The expulsion of Syria from the Arab League is an amazing step, and now they have given Syria three days to stop all attacks against civilians. It makes it appear that those human rights advocates in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the other fun-loving Arab regimes are actually concerned about the loss of life of Syrian civilians. It would be funny if it were not so serious. Actually, this is a small but deliberate step in the anti-Shia stance taken by the majority of Sunni Arab rulers against the Iran-backed heretical Alawite regime of Syria, that has killed just enough people (at this point ca. 3,500) to have upset the West. When the West, particularly the US, is upset, then the Sunnis can take a small step in the direction of isolating Syria, which means an anti-Iran baby step.

The problem of course is that the Sunni Arabs are impotent. They buy billions of dollars of arms, but they have no army to speak of. Iran, without the threat of counter attack by either the US and/or Israel would have gobbled up the Sunni Arabs long ago. They tried with Saddam's Iraq int eh 1980's but this was a big mistake, they went in the w ong direction. The US is motivated by the potential loss af Saudi and Kuwaiti oil, and Israel by the possibility of Iran having a greater strategic depth from which to attack it.

It was rich to hear King Abdullah of Jordan give advice to Pres. Bashar Assad of Syria, namely that if he were Bashar he would have resigned in order to save his people further loss and to make sure that he is replaced by a more responsible government. Not only the fact that Abdullah is practically an absolute monarch (he appoints half of his Parliament), but he is politically a midget compared to Bashar, who himself is not exactly statesman material. Actually, the Hashemites, of which Abdullah is the last ruling example, are an extinct species, who managed to hang on as a result of the generosity of Winston Churchill, who when he was in charge in Britain gave half of Mandatory Palestine to Abdullah's grandfather as a gift at the expense of the Jewish people. As Avigdor Lieberman, our Foreign Minister, said the other day, to harp on this is pointless since Jordan is a recognized sovereign state, even if it was artificially created by a colonial power.

So the Sunni Arabs have shown their teeth. What will they do for follow-up? Remember that the Shia hate the Sunnis and the Sunnis hate the Shia, more than they hate anyone else, including Israel, the West, Obama and the whole shebang! This is a historic clash that goes to the very roots of Islam.

Dizengoff

2011-11-17T16:45:00.002+02:00

As part of a series of history lectures at the AACI Netanya I gave a talk about "Meir Dizengoff, First Mayor of Tel Aviv." This series is entitled "Street Names" since there are many streets named after famous Zionists in Netanya and other cities, but often very little is known about them.

Meir Dizengoff was born in 1861 in Bessarabia, which is now Moldova, and grew up and studied in Kishinev. He was drafted into the Czarist Russian Army in 1882 and served in the Ukraine. After demobilization he joined a a pre-Communist revolutionary socialist organization and was arrested and jailed for a year for "insurrection." Then in Odessa he met members of the early proto-Zionist group "Hovevei Zion" (Lovers of Zion) and started a branch in Kishinev. He went to Paris in 1989 to study Chemical Engineering. There in Zionist circles he met Lionel de Rothschild, who persuaded him to go to Turkish Palestine in 1895 and start a bottling plant to bottle the wines from the Rothschild wineries in Rishon Lezion and Zichron Yaakov. Unfortunately, Dizengoff knew nothing about glass and the bottles he produced from the plant he built in Tantura were defective due to some impurities in the sand. As a consequence, the venture was a failure and Dizengoff returned to Kishinev. The building of the plant still stands today and is used as a museum.

In Kishinev he met Theodor Herzl, the founder of political Zionism, and as a result Dizengoff returned to Palestine permanently in 1905. He landed at Jaffa and found that there was no motorized transport to Jerusalem, only donkeys or horse-drawn carts. So Dizengoff started the first taxi and bus service between Jaffa and Jerusalem. The Arabs had no interest in such a service but the Jews did. He also started a shipping line and rapidly became wealthy. He heard about the plans to start a Jewish suburb outside Jaffa, called Ahuzat Bayit (Pleasant Housing). He quickly joined this organization and became a major investor. In1906 they held a meeting on the sand dunes outside Jaffa and auctioned lots for this development. Dizengoff planned the community with straight streets and uniform houses. It was the first planned community in Palestine and he was the first City Planner.

There were several other Jewish villages already outside Jaffa, including Neve Tzedek, that had been built by the French Jewish contractor Aharon Chelouche in 1887, Har Tikva, that had started as a Christian farm in 1844 intended to attract Jews to re-settle in the Holyland and a Yemenite village that had been settled starting in 1904. Combining these all together they chose the name Tel Aviv, as an approximate translation of the famous prophetic book "Altneuland" by Herzl. Noone could have predicted that these villages would cohere into a mjaor city of 500,000 people and become the first Hebrew-speaking city. This was largely due to the efforts of Dizengoff. There is a statue to him on Rothschild Blvd. in Tel Aviv astride his horse as he rode to inspect the various parts of his city. He officially became Mayor of Tel Aviv in 1911 and remained in that post until 1922. His grand house became the Mayor's House and when his wife died he left it to the City and it became the first Museum in Tel Aviv. It was in the main Hall of this house that Ben Gurion declared the Indpendence of the State of Israel in 1948, and today it is callled Independence Hall. Dizengoff remained actrive in Telk Aviv politics until near his death in 1936.

Tel Aviv is famous for its Bauhaus buildings (also known as "the international style") that were designed by German Jewish architects who fled Germany in the 1920's and 30's. They put into practice what they had learned at the famous school of modern architectural design and Tel Aviv is famous for the greatest concentration of Bauhaus buildings in the world. Because they were all painted white the nickname for Tel Aviv was "The White City". In 2003 UNESCO proclaimed Tel Aviv as a "an example of new town plannign and architecture of the early 20th century." During the French Mandate of Syria, they wished to modernize Damascus, and requested the British in Palestine if they had a modern city planner available, rather than spend the money to bring one from France. The British sent Dizengoff, and it is ironic that the plan of modern Damascus was designed by the Jewish Mayor of Tel Aviv.

Another interesting incident in Tel Aviv and why it spread so far north was that in 1917 when the British were fighting the Turks during WWI, after the battle of Beersheva, the Turks were forced to retreat northwards from Gaza followed in pursuit by the British forces. The Turks took a stand on the northern shore of the Yarkon River, known as the Ouja or Auja River in Arabic, just north of Tel Aviv. Then it was a large marshy area, and the British were unable to cross it. The General in charge of the British forces was surprised to find Jews living there and asked for their help in crossing the marshland. They did indeed help to transport British soldiers with weapons across the river at night, and in the morning they attacked the Turks from their flank. In response for this help at the "Battle of the Auja River," the British later ceded the the land north of the River to Tel Aviv, that is now the area of Ramat Aviv. A pillar was erected that stands on the northern shore of the Yarkon River with a metal inscription to commemorate this event.

The IAEA Report

2011-11-16T16:44:00.000+02:00

If anyone had any doubt that the Iranian regime is in the process of developing a nuclear weapon, this should be dispelled by the latest IAEA Report on the subject issued this week. Now with a different Director, a Japanese rather than the former Egyptian El Baradei, whose honesty has been called into question, the current IAEA Report is much more detailed and definitive. Intelligence from at least 10 countries as well as the IAEA's own information was combined in the current Report. Its conclusions support the position of the Israeli Government that Iran is rapidly working towards developing a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it by missile.

Open discussions started in Israel to highlight the danger to the world of an Iranian nuclear capability have now extended to the whole world. The leaders of the USA, France and the UK have all once again stated that they will not allow Iran to develop such a capability. However, they all emphasize the need for stronger sanctions before any military action should be considered, as a last resort. But, the application of stronger sanctions is blocked by Russia and China in the Security Council. However, knowing that Israel is considering such a strike against Iran must make them think twice.

The problem with any military strike has been pointed out, that Iran has diversified its nuclear facilities, so that there are at least 20 sites scattered all over the country. Furthermore, many of them are buried underground or inside mountains. Not easy targets for any military force. Finally, they are protected by significant defenses consisting of multiple layers of guns and air defenses. Even though Israel was successful in attacking the nuclear reactor in Baghdad back in 1988 and in Syria two years ago, these were nothing compared to the complexity of attacking Iran, but good training nevertheless. Perhaps the most important consideration for the world is that any war scanario in the Persian Gulf is likely to involve the closing of the Straits of Hormuz to oil tankers, that could bring international industry to a standstill. It is this potential threat that should activate the Russian and Chinese leaders to want to prevent Iran from progressing to a nuclear capability. Otherwise the flow of oil to them and the West will be severely disrupted. Israel therefore holds the key to this problem, its threat to attack Iran is not only a danger to Iran, but also a huge risk for the world's leading industrial countries.

Yesterday there was a huge explosion in a major air base near Tehran that killed the leader of Iran's missile program and many others. Reports have attributed this explosion to the Mossad, although the Iranians say that it was an accident. Also, there are reports of other computer viruses that have once again slowed progress in tthe Iranian development of a nucelar weapon. In addition Israel has developed drones the size of a 747 airliner, that are packed with electronic hardware and weapons, and Israel has so-called bunker buster bombs that can penetrate deep into the earth. The problem is that if Israel were about to attack Iran, Hizbollah and Hamas might first start firing thousands of missiles at Israel that have been supplied by Iran for just such an eventuality. In that event Israel might be forced to take preemptive strikes against them to prevent this, or it might lead to a three front war (assuming Syria is too busy killing its own civilians). That is why such an attack on Iran is a last report, but everyone should be aware that Israel is capable of carrying out such an attack and is prepared to do so if there is no alternative.

Liar?

2011-11-15T16:43:00.001+02:00

This letter was published in the Jerusalem Post on 11/11/11:

Sir:
If Pres Sarkozy of France calls PM Netanyahu a "liar" and Pres. Obama says he is "fed up" with him, then I know that I am right in supporting Netanyahu. If these two gentlemen have such opinions of our Prime Minister then he must be doing the right thing. After all, his job is not to please them, but to pursue the interests of the Jewish State, not something these gentlemen have as their priorities.
Sincerely
Jack Cohen
Netanya

The question is, who do these comments harm most? I would say that even though it puts Netanyahu in a bad light, everyone knows that all politicians lie, and this is especially true of Sarkozy of France (not to mention Berlusconi of Italy who is now out). So saying that Netanyahu lies is not very damaging to his character. But, to be caught saying these things before microphones (even though they were assumed to be turned off) is a gaffe that puts Sarkozy and Obama in a bad light, not to mention that they are both up for re-election in a year. It means that neither are what they seem to be in dealing with other statesmen, and therefore they cannot be trusted. The pro-Israel elements in their electorates will take the appropriate message from this minor event. It will not affect relations between the States, but it will cast doubt on the sincerity of their statements.

Failed bid

2011-11-14T16:42:00.001+02:00

The Palestinian bid to be recognized as a State by the UN Security Council has failed! After due consideration, the Committee of all members set up to consider the application voted on 11/11/11 by a majority that the bid had not been sufficiently justified. They stated that the application had not established that "Palestine" had the necessary prerequisites of a State, namely the ability to defend its territory, the organizational infrastructure to function as a State and the necessary economic basis. Some members voted for the bid for political reasons despite these shortcomings, but the Palestinians could not muster a sufficient majority. Some of those members who abstained said they would in principle like to see a Palestinian State, but could not support this bid, particularly since it meant that the Palestinains could avoid negotiating with Israel. One positive feature of this failed bid is that it did not require the US to exercise its veto in the Security Council.

Although the UNESCO arm of the UN did recognize Palestine, this is a pyrrhic victory, since it does not give the Palestinians the political legitimacy they crave, and has put UNESCO itself into severe financial straits since the US, Canada and Israel cancelled their payments to the organization. Unfortunately, now the PA can bring cases before UNESCO to attempt to delegitimize Israel, such as claiming that the rebuilding of the collapsing ramp to the Temple Mount is intended to harm the Haram al-Sharif Mosque, which is physically impossible.

This failure to be recognized at the UN is seen as a failure for Pres. Abbas of the PA and for the Fatah organization that he heads. As such, Hamas, which opposed this application, will consider this their victory and will be strengthened. Now the Palestinians have to decide what is their next step at the UN. They could apply to the General Assembly to improve their status to member observer status, which is likely to succeed, although it will fall short of their political aims. Pres. Abbas of the PA in his first interview to an Israeli journalist recently made some extraorinary admissions, most notably that it was probably a mistake for the Arabs to have rejected the UN Partition Plan of 1948 - only 63 years too late! Now he is finding that you can't simply reverse history, the Partition that was proposed then has long gone. Now Israel exists as a thriving, powerful State and must be reckoned with. Israel should make no more concessions to the Palestinians. When they have decided that they want to live in peace with Israel they will then agree to negotiations. Until then they must deal with their internal dissension, their inability to organize a State and their continuing use of violence to achieve their aims.

Terror in the Digital Age

2011-11-13T16:40:00.000+02:00

This year I have again organized a series of talks on behalf of Netanya-AACI at Netanya Academic College (NAC). The first in the series was given by David Nissan on "Terror in the Digital Age." David Nissan was born and brought up in Iran, speaks Farsi, and works for an Israeli company that collects information from the internet about Islamist terror, hence his direct involvement in this subject. Here is my summary of his excellent presentation (with his corrections and additions).

He started by pointing out that terrorism is a method that has an ancient history and has always been with us in one form or another, from the Jewish Sicarii in the Roman age, thru the Persian Shiite Assassins to al Qaeda. The internet is now a major battleground of this conflict, particularly by those who wish to harm Israel, such as Hamas, Hizbollah and Iran, as well as many other groups around the world who are Islamist or anti-western. Just as we have our own web sites, so the Jihadists and Islamists have theirs. We don't often visit them, but they also have some sites in English. Their primary function is information ("hasbara"), to describe their organization, its aims and achievements and to persuade the reader to support their cause. The more sophisticated websites, such as the one run by the military wing of Hamas – Izzadin Al-Kassem – is a portal which includes forums and chat rooms where discussions can be held regarding a variety of subjects. This is due to the realization that in the modern age, winning the war on the physical battlefield is not enough, you also have to win the war in the information arena.

Terrorism is only one of the methods used by extremist organizations, and is meant to intimidate the enemy population by carrying out indiscriminate and violent attacks targeted against civilians. The most important aspect and desired result of terror is the psychological factor, even more than the loss of life and property. The objective is to induce fear in the hearts of the civilians in the enemy camp and to demoralize them. On their web sites they feature videos of their actions and show people being shot, American tanks being blown up in Iraq or Afghanistan and Western hostages being beheaded. This level of violence is meant to show that they are strong and commited and although they are weaker in resources than the powerful armies arrayed against them, they can nevertheless be victorious. They take their success against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan as an indication that they can beat anyone, even the mighty USA.

Individuals now have access to intelligence that previously was confined to states. For example, using Google Earth, anyone with a computer can focus in on any location in the Western world, and can gain intelligence on potential targets, for example by watching changes over time, and using one of the permanent webcams that show many sites, such as airports and road junctions. For example, Mohammed Atta planned the 9/11 attacks using the internet, and also checked airline schedules in the US and bought most of the tickets online from Hamburg before the 19 hijackers left for the US. There is very little that can be done against this.

Another major function of internet sites and e-mail is recruitment, persuading people to become supporters of a certain organization or take action for the cause, even becoming suicide bombers. This is what happened with Richard Reed, the "shoe bomber," Major Nidal Hassan who carried out the Fort Hood massacre, as well as the "underwear bomber" Nigerian Muslim Abdulmuttalab. They were recruited by Anwar al Awlaki, a US-born Islamic extremist, who when the FBI was closing in on him, moved his operation to Yemen, where he was still equally able to carry on recruiting. Fortunately he was targeted by a US drone and killed last month. The internet can be used not only to recruit members, but also to provide them with instructions in bomb making and how to carry out suicide attacks and so on. There is an online Jihad encyclopedia site that has thousands of pages of instructions on almost every kind of terror attack – collection of intelligence, making explosives, kidnappings, etc.

The internet can be used to send messages and pass secret information. Not only do people use false names, but they can send information by posting coded messages on bulletin boards and even encode information within pictures and videos using a technique called steganography. While the "defender" can invest vast resources in order to monitor and intercept these messages – and even occasionally foil plots in time, a lot of these messages pass through unnoticed because of the growing sophistication of the techniques used by the extremist organizations.

Finally, there is the field of cyber terror. While extremist islamist organization are constantly trying to sabotage crucial computer networks and servers in target states, they have not had many notable successes so far. The defending side has also utilized sophisticated computer technology in order to strike back at the attackers, such as putting worms, bugs or detection programs into the enemies' computers, such as the Stuxnet virus that caused damage to Iran's nuclear program. The US has a Cyber Command, headed by a general with thousands of programmers devoted to this activity (defensive and offensive) and Israel is also known to be well advanced in this area.

The digital age has considerably strengthened the capabilities of extremist groups that use terror, and this development presents serious challenges for national security agencies in the western world. While there still is a large gap between these capabilities and the actual achievement of the desired objectives of terrorist groups, this gap is not getting larger, and is in fact narrowing. This has prompted western nations, especially after the 9/11 attacks to join forces and share terror-related intelligence on an unprecedented level.

All fall down!

2011-11-11T08:21:00.000+02:00

George Papandreou has resigned as Greek PM, after he and his family (three generations) have bled Greece dry with their socialist programs and entitlements, and now Greece is in dire economic straits. By proposing a referendum on the austerity measures required by the EU and IMF to bail Greece out from its debt burden, and then reversing himself under pressure, when it became clear that they would not pay up if Greece did not carry out the austerity program, Papandreou had no choice but to resign. He negotiated a power sharing agreement between his Pasok socialist party and the center right party to form a unity coalition, and then left office. It took four days to finalize the coalition, but the new PM is now Lucas Papademos, a Harvard Professor who was previously Head of the Greek National Bank. In his acceptance speech he emphasized to Greeks that the country is in a dire financial situation and must take this bad medicine if it wants to get healthy in the future.

While sex scandals could not bring down PM Berlusconi of Italy, financial scandals have done so. He has met with the Italian President and submitted his resignation, although he has not defined at what date it will take effect. Italy is a much larger economy than Greece (6x) and is the third largest economy in the EU, but is in even more dire economic straits than Greece. Its debt is comparably bigger, and if it were to fail or default on its debts then it is likely that the euro itself would fail. In order to prevent this Berlusconi must go! While he remains in office the interest on Italian loans has increased to a record 8%, that is unacheivable with Italy's slow rate of growth. With his departure, it is hoped that the loan rate will decrease and Italy will also start on an austerty package.

Apart from the fall of Presidents Gaddafi of Libya, Mubarak of Egypt and Ben ali of Tunisia, the latest Arab President in dire straits is Pres. Assad of Syria. His forces are supposed to have killed ca. 100 people around Homs in contravention of the agreement that he signed with the Arab League recently to stop the violence, and now several Arab states have offered him asylum if he leaves office. The US has also come out in favor of his leaving, saying that he no longer can function as President. Deserters from the Syrian Army have formed the Syrian Free Defence Army and are fighting back. His days are numbered and if he doesn't want to share the fate of Gaddafi, hiding in a hole and being beaten and shot, he must leave soon.

Another President has been disgraced and forced form office and that is former Pres. Katsav of Israel. His fall illustrates the extreme differences between Israel and the Arab States. In Israel, Katsav was removed from office as a result of a legal procedure after 4 women accused him of sexual misconduct during his career in Government. He was tried, found guilty, appealed and now has had his appeal rejected and next month he must start his 7 year sentence. He was removed without violence, and although it was a moral shock to find that the President was a sex abuser, it shows that noone in ISrael is above the law. In Israel there was no uprising, he was simply replaced by a democratic constitutional procedure. What a contrast to the Arab world!

Another person who is leaving office is Dennis Ross, special adviser to Pres. Obama on the Middle East. I am glad, since I have never trusted Ross after he revealed in his autobiography that as an adviser to Pres. Clinton, they knew that Pres. Arafat of the PA was spending money (cash) that they gave him as aid to the Palestinians on supporting terrorism, but did nothing about it, as long as he promised that he would negotiate with Israel, which he never did honestly. Ross allowed the US to be made a fool of by a dishonest dictator, while pressuring Israel to make concessions to him. Such an official does not deserve to be honored.

Finally, a third woman has come forward and described in intimate detail how Republican hopeful Herman Cain made sexual advances to her. He of course denies this, and his opponents did not raise this issue in the latest Republican debate, maybe because they also have such events in their past. But, with that hanging over him his campaign to become the Republiucan nominee for President surely cannot succeed. Even long-time coach Joe Paterno of U Penn has been forced to resign as a result of a sex scancdal in which his assistant was abusing boys at the college. All fall down!

Egyptian atrocity

2011-11-09T08:20:00.000+02:00

In South Africa the Russell Commission is holding a Symposium in order to label Israel "an aparthied state," even though everyone knows that it's not true. Throughout the world well-meaning liberals and humanitarians protest against the treatment by Israel of the Palestinians, never mind that they are firing missiles from Gaza into Israel and there are random acts of terror from the West Bank, including knifings and shooting ambushes of cars. Apparently to human rights activists the lives of Israelis don't count.

Where are the protests against the Syrian regime that in the past 7 months has massacred 3,000 people and injured 20,000 (UN numbers) demonstrating for their freedom. Apparently among Arabs only the lives of Palestinians count to these human rights activists. In Libya massacres continue against former supporters of Col. Gaddafi and in Iran there is no right to demonstrate freely and the secret police make sure that Evien prison is full. In Egypt freedom is still an illusion and demonstrations are suppressed with force by the Armed forces.

But, there is another human rights atrocity in Egypt, that noone in the West cares about. African refugees, mostly young men from eastern and central Africa (Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Nigeria, etc.) are being shot by Egyptian border guards while trying to cross the Sinai desert into Israel. They know that in Israel they will be treated humanely and fed, and may even be able to stay and work. But, in Egypt they are treated terribly and usually shot on sight. Now there are reports, that I saw substantiated on CNN, that not only the Egyptian border guards are shooting the refugees, but tribes of Beduin in the Egyptian Sinai are killing them in order to take their organs. Apparently they have doctors standing by and ambulances waiting to take the organs to Cairo. Since they sell the organs for $10-20,000 each, this is a huge profit. They usually dump the bodies near El Arish in a trash pile outside the cemetery there. Cemetery workers then sort through the bodies and if there is any identification they bury them in the Muslim or Christian cemetery, but if there is no id then they bury them in the trash dump. At present as far as the reporter could tell there were ca. 300 bodies buried there, and inside the cemetery another few hundred. A cemetery worker said that he had buried about 7,000 Africans in the past 10 years, most of them shot by the Egyptian border guards. He had a recording taken from one of them after he was shot but before he died confirming this. But, many of the bodies also have their organs removed.

Will human rights activists protest about this terrible and disgusting practice? Probably not, since the perpetrators are not Jews and the victims are not Palestinians.

Clarifications

2011-11-07T08:18:00.001+02:00

Let's be clear about some things:
1. The Jews never sought to control the world, they were simply successful at business when Christians were not allowed to practise usury (making a profit). Jews thought this was foolish and they were right. Capitalism is based on the profit motive, where would be without it today? Even the Chinese Communists have reinvented Capitalism. Tell this to the idiots at the anti-Capitalism protests on Wall Street and elsewhere.
2. Clear evidence against the Jew's power and control of the world is that the Nazis, who indeed wanted to control the world, as the Islamists do today, were able to decimate the Jews. During the Holocaust in WWII the Jews were in fact powerless!
3. The British were given a Mandate for Palestine by the League of Nations (the precursor of the UN) in 1922 in order to esablish a Jewish State, instead they established an Arab State from Palestine, namely Jordan, and then were forced to leave by the Zionists.
3. After the British withdrew from Palestine in 1947, the UN proposed a Partition of Palestine to form Jewish and Arab States. The Jews accepted the Plan but the Arabs rejected it and so the Partition Plan became null and void.
4. After the UN Partition Plan failed, the Jewish State was proclaimed in 1948, and the Arab States (Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq) invaded in order to destroy it. But, they were defeated and the State was able to defend and organize itself.
5. After the Israeli War of Independence of 1948, the State of Israel then applied for recognition and was recognized by the UN, but its eastern border was never defined, it remained a ceasefire line.
6. Jordan illegally occupied what became the West Bank and Egypt illegally occupied Gaza. Their sovereignty over these areas was never recognized by the UN or the international community. They were ejected by Israel from these areas in the 6 Day War of 1967. Neither was there ever Palestinian Arab sovereignty over these areas.
7. As a result, legally there is no distinction between Israel proper and the West Bank and Gaza. Israel chose to withdraw from Gaza in 2005, but continues to claim the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) and build there.
8. Within Israel there are 1 million Arabs (20% of the population) who are Israeli citizens, but in the West Bank the Palestine Authority states that it will not allow any Jews to live in their territory. This is racist!
9. Within Israel there are no laws or official forms of discrimination or persecution of Israeli Arabs. Anyone can come here and see this for themselves, Arabs are represented in the Knesset (even though many of them are anti-Israel) and are both doctors and patients in all hospitals equally. The accusation of "apartheid" is nonsense.
10. The Palestinians are afraid to negotiate with Israel, because then they would have to agree on an eastern border of Israel and this would negate their claim over all of Israel. This is why they are seeking to esablish their state unilaterally at the UN, but hopefully that bid will fail.

Iranium

2011-11-06T13:46:00.001+02:00

Headlines in Israel and around the world are discussing whether or not Israel will attack Iran to stop its development of a nuclear weapon. This public debate was triggered when several Israeli politicians and former security experts leaked information to the press about current dicussions in the Israeli Cabinet regarding such an Israeli attack. In a poll the majority of Israelis support such an attack but only by a narrow margin.

The Iranian FM issued a statement saying that if Israel did attack Iranian nuclear sites their response would be "crushing." This is the big problem, will other nations support any such Israel strike and what would be the Iranian reponse. Although any actual attack might be a surprise for them, they are well prepared, having diversified and buried much of their nuclear facilities. Also, they have Iranian proxies, Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both of which have tens of thousands of rockets that they could unleash against Israel, as well as large permanent armies of 8-10,000 men each trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards with plans to invade Israel.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ia about to issue a new Report on Iran, that documents Iran's lack of cooperation with the IAEA and its deliberate attempts to hide aspects of its nuclear program. They have detected the building of a large explosion testing facility as well as the development of a computer program to simulate atomic explosions. This will be the first Report on this subject issued under the new IAEA leader Japanese Yukiya Amano. Although the Report apparently fails to draw the obvious conclusions from the data, nevertheless it is more up-front than previous IAEA reports issued under the former Egyptian chief El-Baradei.

Statements by US officials indicate that they are against such an attack, preferring to use sanctions. But, Israel thinks that the sanctions that are in place are ineffective in stopping the Iranian regime from reaching its goal of developing the nuclear bomb and the means to deliver it with long-range missiles. The question is whether or not the Israeli officials leaked the information about Israeli plans because they genuinely oppose such an attack or as a means to initiate a world-wide debate in order either to facilitate stiffer sanctions against Iran or to indicate that Israel is seriously considering such an attack. In either case, the fact is that Iran is drawing closer to actually having such a nuclear device and Israel cannot live with the constant threat of it being used against us. At least the world cannot say it wasn't warned.

Yes, we Cannes

2011-11-04T13:45:00.000+02:00

The G20 summit at Cannes, France, has been thrown into chaos by Greek PM Panandreou's decision to hold a referendum on the euro in Greece. Greece in is the midst of a grave economic crisis with a sovereign debt of ca. 350 billion euros. This results from decades of Greek Government over-spending based on profligate socialist programs and lack of Government income due to Greeks' avoidance of tax payments. Also, the Greek Government deliberately lied about its financial situation in order to stave off this crisis, until the true situation became known last year.

In order to avoid Greece leaving the Eurozone, that might lead to an unraveling of the euro itself, the major Eurozone countries, Germany and France, have been steadily increasing the huge payments to Greece, reducing the actual debt to ca. 50% of that owed to private banks and increasing the Euro bailout (rescue) fund from 250 billion, to 500 billion and now to 1 trillion euros. This fund is supposed to make it clear that the Eurozone will not allow any country to default. But, with Portugal, Spain and even Italy also with enormous debts, even this gigantic sum many not be enough. Pres. Obama also at the G20 in Cannes said that he supported the Eurozone's efforts to avoid Greek default.

With Greece anticipating the last payment, or tranche, of its bailout fund of 50 billion euros, plus a further 100 billion from the IMF, suddenly Papandreou, whose policies undoubtedly led to this catastrophic situation, announced that Greece's citizens, most of whom strongly oppose the austerity cuts imposed by the Eurozone and IMF on Greece, will be given a choice in the matter with a referendum. As a result, under emergency conditions, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, met with Papandreou and read him the riot act. She told him that the referendum should not be held, but if it is it must only be a choice for Greece to leave the Eurozone, something that most Greek citizens also contrarily don't want. She also told him that the last tranche would not be paid to Greece if it decided not to accept the austerity program proposed by the Eurozone and the IMF. But, they can't have it both ways, either they accept austerity and pay in effect for their previous bad financial behavior, or they leave the Eurozone, default on their huge debt and somehow return to the drachma. Such a process would be a terrible blow for the stability of the euro, and would put into high profile the lack of credibility of the Eurozone rules that are supposed to control the financial behavior of members of the Eurozone community.

Now as a result of this confusing situation, the Greek Cabinet met, but apparently Papandreou has reversed himself and decided not to call for a referendum and has decided not to resign as PM, but instead is trying to fashion a national unity government with the opposition. What a mess!

Dirty fans

2011-11-03T13:44:00.000+02:00

What do you do when you turn on your computer one morning and it makes a terrible whirring noise. You realize that one of the fans (or all of them) need cleaning, and so you turn everything off, disconnect the computer and open it up in order to clean the fans. They are supposed to be cleaned every 6 months, or at least every 12 months, but if like me you haven't cleaned them in years, now is the time to do it. I could of course, have called an expert, or taken it in for cleaning, but that would all cost money and time.

I took out two screws and slid off the side panel and was pleased to find that I had chosen the correct side. Then I saw how covered in dust was the main fan, it was filthy. No wonder it wasn't working properly. I removed all the outside dust, but there was a huge amount inside the fan itself and covering the heat exchanger, which is the metal unit with fluting that the fan is supposed to cool. So I realized that I needed to remove this unit, and I was sure that there must be a way to do this, but I could not see how. It was held on the corners by four plastic supports, but pushing, pulling or bending these (very carefully) did not release the unit. So I got a flashlight (torch for the Brits) and looked more closely, and lo and behold I saw a small arrow on each showing the way to open them with a screwdriver. So I turned the tops a half turn and sure enough each one of them popped out and I was able to remove the unit. Then to separate the fan itself from the heat exchanger I saw that there were two ridges in the latter and simply prised the plastic fan holder carefully off the metal part. Then I was able to clean each of them properly, and put a small spray of oil into the fan itself.

There were two other fans, one a large one at the back of the computer unit, that was easy to clean, and another inside the power supply. I carefully removed this and opened it (including 2 hidden screws) and took out the fan unit and cleaned it. Then I put everything back the way it had been, without having disconnected any electrical connectors or touching any circuit boards. After reconnecting all the peripherals, everything is working fine, and I am able to write this to you all. I saved some money and time and I'm happy I accomplished something myself.

UNESCO vote

2011-11-02T13:44:00.000+02:00

Yesterday the UNESCO Assembly meeting in Geneva voted by a large majority to accept "Palestine" as a new member. This is a strange vote, since "Palestine" is not yet a recognized State within the United Nations, because the Security Council is still considering its application. So how can it be a member of one of the UN's constituent bodies and not of the governing organization. The vote was 107 for, including France, Brazil, China, Russia, India and South Africa,14 against, including Israel, the USA, Canada, Holland and Germany and 52 abstentions, including the UK.

This vote really has nothing to do with the reality of Palestine as an actual State, but has more to do with revolutionary or left-wing politics. All the Arab, Muslim and "third world" countries voted for Palestine, as they vote against Israel in any resolution condemning the Jewish State. They regard Israel as being a "colonialist, occupying" State. Israel rejected the vote as being in opposition to peace, because such a unilateral move awards the Palestinians with something that they have not been able to achieve by the usual processes of international relations, which requires bilateral negotiations with Israel. This has been the modus of the so-called "peace process" since UN resolution 242 after the 1967 war, through the Madrid Conference, the Oslo Agreements, the Road Map of Pres. Bush, the Annapolis meeting, and until very recently. Without agreeing on any of the outstanding issues, this vote allows the Palestinians to evade negotiations with Israel and leaves the status quo unresolved.

The US announced today that due to this decision that it opposed, it will freeze its funding of UNESCO (22%). Israeli FM Liebermann announced that he feels Israel should now also take unilateral steps, for example to annex parts of the West Bank that it considers essential for its security and the protection of its citizens. But, this will probably not be done yet, until the matter is resolved in the UN. If each side takes its own unilateral actions then there will likely be further conflict. Today the Israeli Government announced that the inner Cabinet had decided to accelerate building in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and to halt payments of tax revenues to the PA. So this symbolic unilateral step will result in actual losses for both UNESCO and Palestine.

Gaza missiles

2011-11-01T13:43:00.000+02:00

This is not some academic subject, missiles are falling all over southern Israel. My daughter, who lives in Beersheva, heard the Iron Dome alarm while driving with our granddaughter and they took shelter in an apartment stairwell with others. They heard two big explosions, apparently the Iron Dome worked and intercepted two missiles fired at Beersheva from Gaza.

You may not read or hear anything about this in your western media, but when Israel has to retaliate to stop this barrage that is keeping the south of Israel hostage, then you will see headlines that read "Israel attacks Gaza..." and at the bottom of the article it will mention that this was in response to shelling of Israel by "militants" who oppose the "occupation." Even though Egypt has negotiated two ceasefires, the firings by Islamic Jihad have not ceased. There were three more misiles last night.

In his opening speech yesterday to the winter session of the Israeli Knesset, PM Netanyahu stated that "Israel will strike at anyone who tries to hurt us," and "security is about the ability to attack not just defend." But, so far he has done none of these things. Even though the IDF has announced that it is ready to implement a plan to stop the missiles being fired into Israel. For three days now the south of Israel has been under constant threat that has brought normal life to a standstill, no school, no public events, no gatherings of people. This cannot go on. When will Israel meaningfully strike back.

Rockets hit south

2011-10-31T13:42:00.000+02:00

Over the weekend, 40 rockets and mortars were fired into southern Israel from Gaza mainly by Islamic Jihad. A Grad long-range rocket killed a man in Ashkelon, Ami Moshe, 56. In addition, 20 were injured and 5 houses received direct hits. On Sat night the IAF attacked targets in Gaza focussing on active rocket firing cells. Ten Islamic Jihad terrorists were killed, including the head of their rocket production.

Egypt mediated a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that was supposed to go into effect at 6 am Sun morning, but it was ignored by the terrorists. Later Islamic Jihad issued a statement saying that it did not know about the ceasefire and anyway it was taking revenge for the loss of IJ members. Israel issued a statement saying that as the effective Government of Gaza it held Hamas responsible for all attacks from its territory.

Some 200,000 children in the south, including Ashkelon, Ashdod and Beersheva, were kept home from school because of the danger. Approximately 1 million Inhabitants of the south were warned to stay within reach of a protected shelter. The Iron Dome anti-missile system failed to work and intercept any rockets or give advance warning because of a malfunction, which supposedly has now been fixed. Israel cannot allow a third of its territory being kept under constant threat of rocket attack.

It is reported that the rockets being used in these attacks are newer, upgraded rockets that have been obtained from Libya, transported via Egypt and the Sinai into Gaza. Whether these rockets were a gift from the new National Transitional Council of Libya or were collected by other extreme elements in Libya independently is unknown, but they clearly could not have been transported without the knowledge of the NTC and the Egyptian authorities. This represents a dangerous trend if the Arab countries of the so-called "Arab Spring" are now supporting Hamas and IJ in Gaza militarily, rather than supporting the so-called moderates of the PA on the West Bank.

One irony of the current situation is that the IJ is attacking Israel to send a message to Hamas, since it achieved popularity with the Schalit prisoner swap. Hamas will probably favor a ceasefire otherwise the second stage of the Schalit prisoner swap of another 550 Palestianin prisoners from Israeli jails might be in jeopardy. IJ are saying in effect, look we are here and we are attacking Israel while you are quiet. They are also sending this message to the PA Fatah leadership and to Iran, that is their sponsor. While Iran supports Hamas, IJ is actually Iran's subsidiary and it is gaining popularity among the young extremists in Gaza because IJ is more radical and more extreme. The headline in the Jerusalem Post this morning states that the IDF is planning an escalation of its counter-attacks against Gaza, but the Egytians are now trying to arrange a ceasefire between Islamic Jihad and Israel.

Syrian developments

2011-10-30T13:41:00.001+02:00

Some interesting developments in relation to Syria.
1. Not only does the insurrection against Pres. Assad continue, but it seems to increase in intensity every Friday. The total killed according to reports over the weekend rose to 50. In Homs it was reported that 17 soldiers were killed in ambushes by army deserters.
2. The Arab League sent an urgent message to Pres. Assad warning him to take steps to satisfy the demands of the Syrian people. Since the main aim of the protests is to remove Assad from office, there does not seem much that he can do to accomodate them except resign.
3. Chinese representatives visiting Syria, criticized for the first time the Syrian Government's response to the demonstrations. This is of course very hypocritical, since there is no right to demonstrate in China and any public manifestations would be speedily suppressed. Nevertheless, it shows that the international commmunity are getting fed-up with the continual daily death rate in Syria. But, so far China and Russia have shielded Syria from international condemnation in the UN Security Council.
4. The Intl. Atomic Energy Authority has criticized Syria for first agreeing to accept a fact-finding delegation and then rescinding the offer. This delegation was being sent to investigate the claim that the facility destroyed in an Israeli air raid 2 years ago was in fact an atomic plant intended to produce weapons grade plutonium. The refusal of Syria to allow the IAEA to investigate this site has only increased the belief that the Syrians did in fact have a secret and illegal nuclear weapons program.
5. For the first time there are reports of Syrian army deserters crossing the Lebanese border rather than firing on their own people. Also, there are rumors that the Turkish authorities are allowing an army of opponents of the regime to be formed in Turkey, with recruits from around the world as well as from Syria. Perhaps because of its rivalry with Iran, perhaps because the Assad regime is dominated by Alawites and the opposition is Sunni, like the Turks, or perhaps because of its attempts to gain influence in the Arab world, Turkey is now supporting the opposition to Assad. There have been several meetings of opposition groups in Turkey in order to form a united front, but it remains to be seen whether or not these groups can in fact together bring down the Assad regime.

Escapism

2011-10-28T13:40:00.000+02:00

For some time something has been bothering me, but I wasn't quite sure what it was, like a pea under a mattress or nails scratching on a blackboard. Then watching the movie "Avatar" for the fourth time on TV I started to realize what it was, escapism.

Movies such as "The Matrix", "The Lord of the Rings", "Avatar" and Harry Potter's adventures have taken the escapism of childhood to new levels, such that the transfer of reality to an alternative fantasy world has become so realistic that it seems to many as an alternative reality. While the Matrix and Avatar have very different alternate realities, in the former case a computer program that mimics reality and in the latter case as a member of the Nav'i tribe on the planet Pandora, nevertheless they have the same message. We are supposed to identify with Neo or Jake Sully, the new "moral" heroes.

I especially dislike the Harry Potter series, I saw the first, second and last movies in the series and I must say I thought it was utter rubbish, hardly better than a third rate B movie for kids. The last one was particularly dreary, with all the gratuitous death and destruction, and then Harry is dead and lo and behold he miraculously comes back to life, what rubbish! I was surprised that many Jewish and other religious parents allowed their children to wallow in this stuff about wizards and magic wands, it was all special effects, but so many children were caught up in it.

Let me say this clearly, there is no other reality except the one we know. Yes, escapism may work for a short time, but then you go out of the movie theater or pause the video, and back to reality. Even if higher physics predicts other universes, we only experience one of them. No one has ever actually been into another universe and actually met ghosts, devils, aliens or other products of the human imagination. Such escapist stories appeal to some aspect of human beahvior, such as talking animals, but they are not real. Dealing with the real world is hard, what with terrorism, criminality, drugs, violence and even boredom, that a hefty does of escapism seems like a good antidote. But, best not to go in too deeply, reality bites.

Van

2011-10-27T20:43:00.001+02:00

The area of Van, where the earthquake occured in Turkey, was in fact part of Armenia, before the majority of Armenians were massacred by the Turkish military during WWI. Lake Van and the nearby (100 km) Mount Ararat were the heartland of Armenia. Now Van is inhabited mainly by Kurds. There is now an Armenian state, but it is quite reduced in size compared to its original extent. Perhaps if the Kurds ever gain independence from their colonial masters, the Turks, the Arabs and the Iranians, they will cede back to the Armenians the land that was stolen from them by the Turks. But, such events rarely happen.

This should be a warning to us Jews, why we must not cede land that is ours under international law to any other sovereignty without cast iron guarantees based on mutually agreed negotiations. Given the upheavals and instability in the Arab world and past experience of Arab agreements, we would be wise not to engage in such a foolish exercise for the much-touted, but implausible "two-state solution."

Ask yourself "why does Pres. Abbas of the PA insist that Israel stop all building on the West Bank before the re-start of negotiations"? Since he knows that PM Netanyahu cannot institute another freeze without endangering the stability of his coalition government, Abbas knows that this is a precondition that Israel cannot and will not accept. Yet, if he started negotiations then this topic would be one of the main topics for discussion. Certainly the areas of building could be agreed, once the question of borders of the Palestinian State are discussed. But, Abbas will not even enter negotiations, and meanwhile Israel and the settlers continue to legitimately build their homes in Judea and Samaria. The problem is that Abbas insists that no Jews will be allowed to live in these Jewish homelands, which is a very racist attitude. Which brings me back to Van. Armenians still long for a view of Lake Van or Mt. Ararat, as expressed in the 2002 movie "Ararat" by Atom Ergoyan, but it is not and probably will never be theirs again!

Bashar's end?

2011-10-26T20:43:00.000+02:00

The sight of Muammar Gaddafi's battered body lying in a meat locker in Misrata should have given Pres. Bashar Assad of Syria nightmares. Let's hope so. It is a suitable if grim end to Gaddafi's career as the "mad-dog" of the Arab world.

Today was an important day in the Syrian crisis, since the US withdrew its Ambassador to Syria, because he was being harrassed by Bashar's goons, and Syria retaliated by withdrawing their Ambassador from Washington. Also, Assad issued a warning to King Abdullah of Jordan, not to cooperate with any foreign countries, i.e. the US or NATO, against Syria, otherwise Syria will invade Jordan. The last time I remember that Syria threatened to invade Jordan was back in 1981 when Israel threatened, with US support, that it would consider a Syrian armed invasion of Jordan as a causus belli, and would attack the invading forces. That made Assad (the father) hesitate and then pull back. It is not inconceivable that if Assad (the son) finds that his back is against the wall from his internal opposition, then he might attack Jordan or do some other irrational act, if only to change the nature of the game.

Hizbollah and Iran are still supporting Assad, although they have both issued conciliatory statements to urge Assad to negotiate with the opposition or enact reforms. Turkey has gone even further, having openly taken up the cause of the opposition and allowing them to meet on its territory. In this event, PM Erdogan has taken a political move that will make him popular in the Arab world if Assad is overthrown. But, at the same time 20 Turkish soldiers were killed in an attack by the Kurdish PKK party, so he has sent a Turkish force into Iraq to attack the PKK garrisons. This will not make him popular with the Iraqi Arabs. It's all a political game.

Anyway, I'm still thinking of Bashar Assad lying dead in a meat locker in Homs. Wishful thinking. The problem is what will replace him.

The Tunisian model

2011-10-25T20:42:00.000+02:00

The preliminary results of the first election of the so-called "Arab Spring" are in and the Tunisian people have elected a so-called "moderate Islamist" party the Ennahda Party. The Ennahda Party as expected won the largest proportion of the vote and will probably form the Government, although in coalition with other parties.

Maybe the election will not only be the first, but also the last election in Tunisia. How can an Islamist party be "moderate? Islamists are united by several things, one is the primacy of Islam, second is antagonism to the West (Christianity, Judaism and secularism), third is the need to impose Sharia law, and fourth is the relegation of women to second class citizenship (under Sharia women are "owned" by men). These policies are incompatible with democracy and liberal ideals (respecting the rights of minorities). However, the Ennahda Party's leaders are at great pains to persuade everyone listening that they respect the democratic system, that they do not want to impose another "dictatorship" in Tunisia and that they will not reverse the relatively liberal, westernized culture of Tunisia. However, there is a dichotomy here, if Tunisia is in fact liberal, pro-western and Francophile, why would the majority vote for an Islamist party? This is the same paradox that happened in Iran, where westerners assumed that Iran under the Shah was a progressive, pro-Western culture, but in fact discovered the day after the Islamic revolution that it was in fact backward-looking and Islamist in the worst possible way. SInce the Ennahda Party was banned under the former dictator Ben-Ali, it seems that he was suppressing the very anti-democratic Islamist fervor that has been banned in Algeria, Egypt (the Muslim Brotherhood) and other countries.

So now the future depends on whether or not such a thing as a "moderate" Islamist Party can exist, as perhaps in Turkey, in conjunction with a democratic system. Can they allow free elections, can they allow criticism of their policies (who can criticize Islam) and can they allow thermselves to be defeated in a future election? It seems intrinsically unlikely, but that is what the Arab Spring has produced.

An Israeli tour

2011-10-23T20:41:00.001+02:00

On Eurosport channel there is an ad campaign for a country, showing wide beaches and beautiful people swimming, and then paragliding, and rappelling down cliffs and driving in jeeps in canyons, all very outdoorsy and attractive, then it says "enjoy the magic - Israel." Needless to say I was surprised, its part of the re-branding of Israel, not a Chassid or Arab in sight.

If I were given sufficent funds to conduct a PR campaign to inform people and increase tourism to Israel, this is what I would show:
Acre (Akko in Hebrew) the port city in northern Israel and its fabulous buried underground Crusader city and the Jezzar Pasha Mosque, the largest Mosque in Israel, active, alive and definitely worth a visit.
The Hamam hot baths next to the Acre prison which were featured in the movie "Exodus" and is now restored.
Haifa and the magnificent Bahai gardens, the center of the world-wide Bahai faith
Zichron Yaakov founded in 1882 and its old Synagogue and its Museum of the First Aliyah, the earliest Jewish immigration to the Holy Land
Daliat al-Carmel the largest Druze village in Israel, worth a visit for its glimpse of Druze culture and its delicious food
The old quarter of Tzvat (Safed) and the medieval synagogues
Caesarea, the excavated Roman city and the huge Crusader Fortress including the visitor's center with excellent videos
Tel Aviv and the early settlement of Neve Tzedek, the first Jewish suburb of Jaffa in 1887 and the restored Turkish railway station Hatachana which contains restaurants and boutiques and nearby the restored Hassan Bek Mosque
Mini-Israel near Latrun that contains the main cities and sights of Israel in miniature, and nearby the Armored Division Museum showing the Israeli tanks the Merkava (a favorite of kids)
Beersheva with its Turkish memorial to the soldiers who died defending it from the British in WWI and the British cemetary nearby with the graves of the British and Commonwealth soldiers who died capturing it and the Park of the Australian Light Infantry with the statue of the Australian soldier attacking the Turkish positions
Also in Beersheva the Israel Air Force Museum and the striking Negev Battalion Memorial up on a hill overlooking the city
Eilat and the undersea observatory
Visit the amazing Ramon Crater at Mizpe Ramon and Solomon's Pillars at Timna in the south. Take a jeep ride or a tour in the Negev, stark and beautiful.
The road to Jerusalem and the remains of the lightly armored cars that were used to send convoys of food into the besieged city in 1948 and the position of Kastel that overlooks the main road into Jerusalem that was a very strategic location
In Jerusalem itself, not only the usual sights of the unique Old City, the newly designed Israel Museum, but also Ammunition Hill, where the IDF in a suicide mission defeated the Jordanian Arab Legion and helped capture Jerusalem in 1948
Near the Rockefeller Museum the memorial to the Jordanian soldiers (still there under Israeli jurisdiction) who fought bravely but vainly to defend the illegal Jordanian occupation of East Jerusalem
In the Jewish Quarter, the beautiful reconstructed Hurva Synagogue that was completely destroyed by the Arabs in 1948
The amazing excavations of the ancient city in the Davidson Center and the underground tunnels of the Temple Mount
Archeological excavations, including Tzippori in the Galilee with magnificent Roman mosaics, and the Roman city of Beit Shean
All the many ancient biblical sites such as Meggido, Hazor, and Tel Sheva showing the ancient Jewish connection to the Land
The wonderful Sea of Galilee at Tiberias, take a dinner cruise on the lake or enjoy the "banana boats"
Oh, and finally Netanya, where a stroll along the cliff-top tayelet (promenade) is a must!

There is so much to see and so much that tells the story and history of the Jews in their Land that anyone not convinced of the connection is purely biased. One image must be selected as an icon, just as the Houses of Parliament are for London, the Eiffel Tower is for Paris and the White House for Washington. I would choose the Citadel with David's Tower that would symbolise the ancient connection and strength of the association of the Jews with Jerusalem.

Who's next?

2011-10-21T20:40:00.000+02:00

Who is the person watching the fate of Col. Gaddafi most closely? Answer: Pres. Assad of Syria. He too will die like a rat in a hole, following the tradition of Saddam Hussein of Iraq and now Gaddafi. As one of the early American flags said "Death to all tyrants!"

In Syria, it is reliably reported that ca. 3,000 people have been killed by the regime's forces, literally attacking undefended towns with tanks and special units whose job it is to arrest and torture opponents. Reportedly ca. 30,000 have been arrested and even children have been arrested and tortured, that is the level of Syria's viciousness. I have no sympathy for anyone in Syria, they are all our enemies, but I would like to see Assad and his 40 year-old regime destroyed and removed. That would be a major defeat for our main enemy Iran, that until now has supported the Assad regime. But, of late, even Iran and Turkey have been advising Assad to make concessions to the Syrian people. A meeting of the Arab League was called last week specifically to pressure Assad to compromise, but even that was split and unable to come to any clear conclusion. Also, the Security Council of the UN is split on Syria. How many must die before there is any form of unanimity, say 5,000 or 10,000? Most serious commentators agree that Assad cannot come back from where he is now, no amount to force can restore his regime to its former power, which means that his time is numbered, but the Syrian people just have to suffer until he is removed. Like Libya there will have to be a violent insurrection against his forces.

I foresee two possible outcomes to the present situation. First, Assad will be overthrown and there will be a civil war in Syria between the pro-Iranian Alawites and the pro-Arabian Sunnis, who are the majority (88%). Second, there might also be an uprising in Jordan, and a civil war between the pro-Hashemite Beduin and the Palestinians who constitute a majority (70%). Neither of these states can continue to exist in their present form forever.

Some have concluded that the deal to release Gilad Schalit with Hamas represents some sort of breakthrough in the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Nothing could be further from the truth. The only reason that Hamas decided to go ahead with the prisoner swop was that Israel was standing firm on the principle of not releasing any major goaled terrorist leaders and Pres. Abbas of Fatah was gaining a lot of publicity for his initiative of applying unilaterally to the UN for Palestinian independence. Not wanting to be left out, and gradually losing popularity in the Gaza strip, Hamas needed to make some kind of move and the release of their prisoners is a very popular move among Palestinians. But, actually the release of 1,000 committed terrorists can only impede the peace process and the re-commitment exhibited in the Hamas rally in Gaza to the use of violence is definitely against any peace process. Hamas will only use the "armed struggle" to achieve their oft-stated aim of destroying Israel and kidnapping other IDF soldiers, everything else is "pie in the sky."

Now Pollard?

2011-10-19T20:39:00.000+02:00

Of course, there is very little connection between the Pollard case and the Gilad Schalit case. Pollard has been held in a US jail for 26 years for spying for Israel, far longer than any other such "friendly" spy. Gilad was held for 5.5 years in a Hamas cell for being nothing more than an Israeli soldier. What might be considered similar is that they have both suffered much more than they should for any perceived injury that they might have caused.

Pollard's incarceration has definitely passed beyond the realm of punishment into that of inhumane treatment. Whatever it was that then Secty. of Defense Caspar Weinberger wrote in a still secret note to the judge that caused such a long sentence, it could not justify this extended period of imprisonment. Whatever it is that VP Biden objects to in the release of Pollard ("over my dead body") cannot be really serious. Where is his usual humanistic attitude?

Pres. Obama has not seen fit to give Pollard clemency on humanitarian grounds. He is still clinging to his political position in which he definitely favors the Arabs and hence does nothing that might overtly support Israel, even though his speech at the UN was very pro-Israel. This can be interpreted to mean that his positions are not from basic sentiment but rather are politically motivated. But, now is the time for clemency. Many American public figures have come out in support of Pollard's release, including former NYC Mayors Ed Koch and Rudolph Giuliani, many Senators and Congressmen, as well as former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and Lawrence Eagleburger and most Jewish leaders, including Elie Weisel. Write to Pres. Obaba and ask him to commute the life sentence of Jonathan Pollard, he has done more than enough time for the offense for which he was convicted! We would like to see him return to his country of Israel soon.

Incidentally, the American-Israeli Ilan Grapel who was arrested in Tahrir Square in Cairo a few months ago and was accused os spying for Israel, is probably no more than a naieve idealist who wants peace with Egypt. He may be released soon by Egypt

Fact or fiction?

2011-10-18T18:25:00.002+02:00

In August 2003, I wrote a treatment for a novel based upon the idea that someone assassinated the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the US in Washington DC. Last week an Iranian-American was arrested at Kennedy airport for plotting just such an act. He was given up by a Mexican drug dealer who he and another Iranian approached to help them carry out the murder for a cool m$1.5. Luckily this dealer also happened to be a DEA agent. They also planned to bomb the Israeli and Saudi Embassies in Washington. The other Iranian man, still on the run, named Aboulassid, is an agent ot the al Kuds Brigade of the Iranian National Guard (ING). This was announced in Washingotn last week by Attorney General Eric Holder and also in a speech by President Obama. If they had succeeded this would have been an act of war by Iran on the USA.

The al Kuds Brigade is named after al Kuds or the nickname that the Muslims give to Jerusalem, meaning " the holy." It is the major aim of the Iranian revolutionary movement to recapture Jerusalem from the Zionists, by any means possible. In order to do so they attacked Iraq in 1988, with the slogan, "the road to Jerusalem goes thru Baghdad." However, they failed in this approach. Now many years later the al Kuds Brigade is the main terrorist arm of the ING. They are involved in sponsoring Hizbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and are reputed to have been behind the bombings of the Jewish organizations in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which killed hundreds of Jews. They are also involved in helping Pres. Assad put down the riots against his regime in Syria. The ING is the most reactionary and dangerous element of the Iranian regime, they control huge amounts ofthe Iranian economy and are practically a State within a State. They are fanatically devout and support the Ayatollahs and it should be remembered that Pres. Ahmedinejad was member of the ING, thought to have organized the take-over of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and is intimately involved with the al Kuds Brigade. Any foreign action by them, especially in the US, is likely to have been directly ordered by him.

In my "treatment" I was not sure who to blame for the assassination. It could have been al Qaeda, the most likely actor at that time, the Iranians, an active enemy of the US, or even the Hashemites of Jordan. Don't forget that Arabia was Hashemite territory before it was conquered by the Saudis in 1932, under Abdul-Aziz Ibn Saud with the help of the Wahhabis, a fanatical Muslim sect from the interior of Arabia, the Nejd desert. They were led by Mohammed ibn abd al-Wahhab, and are technically known as Salafis, fundamentalist followers of the forefathers. However, the Jordanian Hashemites are very weak and not likely to endanger their already tenuous existence by such a rash act. Although at the time, al Qaeda seemed the likely actor for such an act, because Osama bin Laden was an active enemy of the Saudi regime, because of their cooperation with the US, after his assassination earlier this year and that of the reputed leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula Anwar al-Awlaki, this seems much less likely. So we are left with the Iranians.

What is special about my draft is the manner of the assassination, quite a probable means to carry out this act. Note that the Israelis are not considered a possible protagonist in this act. On the contrary, the Iranians consider the Israelis and the Saudis both their natural enemies, and if they had to choose, the Saudis, as the center of Sunni Islam, the enemy of their own form of Shia Islam, are certainly the worse. Not only are they historically the enemy of Shia Islam for centuries, but they are also weaker than Israel, and therefore potentially an easier target. Ahmedinejad definitely believes that Shia Islam is due to take over the Middle East and then the world, and this is the second step (the first having failed against Iraq) in what he considers an inevitable struggle.
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PS. If anyone knows of an agent or publisher who might be interested in reading part of my treatment, please ask them to get in touch with me.

Mixed feelings on Schalit

2011-10-17T18:24:00.000+02:00

The majority of Israelis have mixed feelings over the impending prisoner exchange between Gilad Schalit, held in captivity by Hamas for 5 years in solitary confinement, and ca. 1,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. The majority definitely want Schalit to be released, but the question is at what price. For many the price seems too high, since the ratio is not only 1,000:1 but many of the1,000 Palestinians being released are arch-terrorists who had been convicted in court of the murder of Israelis. In fact ca. 300 of them to be released in the first round at the same time as Schalit are in the category of having "blood on their hands," a group that the Israeli Government has in the past declared that it would never release or exchange. But, as some members of the Cabinet who voted for the exchange have said, they felt that this was the last chance to release Schalit, and so had to vote for the deal but with a heavy heart. Some Israelis who have lost loved ones to the murderers being released are antagonistic to the deal, for example a man who lost all his family in the Sbarro bombing in Jerusalem in 2001, defaced the Rabin memorial in Tel Aviv in protest against the deal. Many clear-headed Israelis see this deal as sentiment overtaking reason. There is little doubt that a percentage of those being released will return to terrorism and kill more Israelis. At least some of the terrorist leaders, Marwan Barghouti and Sa'adi of the PFLP are not included. So is it a good deal?

The advantage for Israel and for its Government are clear, they get Schalit back and can play the heroes, as well as removing this impedient to their freedom of action over Gaza. For Hamas, the deal is a victory of a kind, since it catapults them into the news as the saviours of the Palestinian prisoners and gives them a huge advantage over Pres. Abbas of the PA, who is attempting to obtain unilateral statehood for Palestine, but so far without success. It is also a victory for Egypt which has brokered the deal, following attempts by France (of which Schalit is also a citizen), Germany, Qatar and Turkey. In the case of Turkey, it has been said that the deal will please Turkish PM Erdogan. The exchange will take place at the Egyptian border and Israel has pledged not to attack any of the prisoners released unless they return to terrorism. In order to check this it has been suggested that all prisoners released should be given a secret electronic tag so that they can be followed whereever they go.

Under the circumstances, this may have been the best deal that Israel could get and although in the past such unbalanced exchanges have been seen to have been mistakes, one can only hope that in this case the results will not be too bad. The ratio of 1,000: 1 indicates the general value of Palestinians vs. Israelis. But, the IDF must take greater measures to prevent future kidnappings. Perhaps all IDF soldiers should also be given an electronic tag so that their whereabouts can be monitored at all times. The problem is that this disproportionate exchange means that there will be a premium by Hamas and other terrorists to kidnap Israeli soldiers in the future.

The Rape of Europa I

2011-10-16T18:23:00.000+02:00

"The Rape of Europa" is the title of a book by Lynn Nicholas that is taken allegorically from the title of a famous painting by Titian in which the Greek godess Europa is about to be raped. The book, that has been made into a movie, describes the systematic and unprecedented plunder of art works from all over conquered Europe by the German Nazis and their subsequent recovery and return mainly by US forces. This book is an incredibly detailed account of this subject, that shows how well organized and prepared the German authorities were for this task and how rapacious was their appetite. For example, as soon as Poland was conquered by the German forces in 1939, within a month practically all of the most valuable paintings and objects d'art were already catalogued and being shipped to Germany!

This was not a random gathering of works of art, but a carefully considered aquisition depending on the value and provenance of the works. Immediately behind the conquering German forces came legions of art experts, connaisseurs and profiteers. There were several groups of them: First among them were the representatives of Hitler himself, led by his art representative Dr. Hans Posse, who was given carte blanche to "collect" (steal) whatever works the Fuehrer wanted. And the Fuehrer, previously a (bad) amateur painter, felt that he had impeccable taste and so he was directly involved in the decisions. He collected works for two reasons, first for his own collection and second for the mega-gallery that he planned to build in Linz (his birthplace) that was to have the greatest collection of art in the world. For this purpose several central collection points were set up in Germany where tens of thousands of works for the Linz gallery were gathered and annotated.

Then came the representatives of Field Marshall Goering. He fancied himself a connaisseur of art and collected paintings and other objects for his own collection at his huge mansion "Carinhall" that was named after his deceased Swedish wife. He particularly valued works by Cranach an early German painter. He boasted that his collection was to be the best in the world. Goering was no dilletante, he had frequented the best private collections and museums in Europe and had direct relations with many eminent dealers, some of them Jewish. As soon as the conquests occured he would visit these contacts in order to obtain the best works at the least price, and he had to be fast in order to outmaneuver Hitler's representatives. To show the degree of his commitment he visited art galleries and dealers in Paris 12 times from 1940-41.

Then there were the "local" German collectors, such as Gen Frank, the Governor-General of the Polish General-Gouvernement, the area of Poland under German military occupation. In this area, Frank could requisition anything he liked, particularly if it was suspected to be of German origin. Some of the best paintings in Poland were displayed on his office walls and other officers helped themselves to what they liked from various central collection points, although these were usually meticulously noted. Also there were various German museum directors and their representatives sniffing around Europe for any free masterpieces.

There were two other groups in charge of French owned artistic property, the Wermacht (German Army) unit called the Kunstschust and the so-called ERR (Einstatsztab Reichsleiter Rosenberg). While the Wermacht tried to retain all French property within France until a peace treaty was reached according to international law, the Gestapo unit under Alfred Rosenberg was to find and transfer to Germany all art items stolen or removed from Germany by the French during WWI and as far back as the Napoleonic War. These two groups were at loggerheads and the German officer in charge of the Kunstschust, Count Franz Wolff Metternich, an eminent art historian and Francophile and a distant relative of the German statesman, saw it as his duty to prevent the Gestapo from stealing French property. He did this by denying them transportation that was under Wermacht control. But, they got around this by having Goering use Luftwaffe (Air Force) transport. In one incident, Alfred Rosenberg was responsible ironically for transferring back to Germany the holdings of the Jewish art dealer Paul Rosenberg, who had moved his collection from Berlin to Paris and had hidden it in bank vaults and at the Louvre and had then managed to escape to New York. His collection, like many others had works by Cezanne, Degas, Monet, Matisse, Picasso, etc. A similar fate awaited the fabulous collections of the Wildensteins, David-Weill and the Rothschilds.

There were three ways the works were obtained by the Germans, first in areas of military occupation, like Poland, Occupied France and Belgium, all Jewish-owned works automatically became the property of the Reich and were confiscated. In order to avoid this many Jewish owners sold their collections at ridiculously low prices to non-Jews and fled the country. But, some did not flee far enough and were caught in the Nazi's net. Second, private collections of non-Jews, including those bought from Jews, could be bought at lower than market prices. Only in the Netherlands, which was put under civilian administration and considered part of the Reich (because the Dutch were racially acceptable) were the Germans forced to pay a reasonable price for the artworks. The third means of collection were the Nationally owned museums and galleries. Ironically in Holland, German soldiers helped to protect famous works of art (such as the huge canvas of the "Night watch") from bombing while in France, where strenuous attempts had been made to hide the greatest works of art, the Germans came with maps knowing almost all the hiding places in advance, and simply took what they wanted.

The ERR was responsible for removing all "degenerate" modern art from the collections and some of it was used as a touring show in Germany to expose decadent modern art, but ironically the German public preferred it to traditional art. In one case the ERR was responsible for deliberately destroying "Jewish" and "decadent" art found in the Louvre, including works by Pissaro and Picasso that they sloashed and burnt. But, generally they preferred to keep degenerate art for selling on the black-market and making money for their activities and for themselves. Ironically, many modern art paintings, including many abstract paintings, were saved because they were not wanted for any German collection and were either stored or sold at low prices to dealers who kept them until after the war. In particular, works by Pissaro could be obtained at rock-bottom prices because he was Jewish.

In all of this institutionalized robbery, while the war was continuing, the Germans typically kept meticulous notes, But, at the Jeu de Paume that was made the central collection point in Paris, the volume of works going in and out was so great that the German auditors were unable to keep up with it. But the French auditor of the famous collection of impressionist paintings, Rose Valland, kept a meticulous secret daily diary of where the Germans were shipping the treasures of France and she handed weekly copies to the French authorities in unoccupied Vichy France. Because of this some of the most valuable paintings in the world, by Michaelangelo, Van Gogh, Renoir and so on were ultimately retrieved.

Medical emergency

2011-10-12T18:22:00.000+02:00

The health system in Israel is in an emergency situation. For about four months there was a doctor's strike in which the Israel Medical Association (IMA) demanded more pay and better conditions and the Health Minister, the Finance Minister and the Prime Minister pretended to negotiate. The Government was already facing enormous problems from the summer so-called "tent city" demonstrations, demanding more expenditure on cheaper housing as well as a range of social issues. The doctors became so disillusioned that their Head Leonid Eidelman went on a hunger strike. Finally after 137 days and intense negotiations with the Deputy Health Minister Jacob Litzman, the Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz and PM Netanyahu acting as Health Minister, an agreement was arrived at including large salary increases for doctor in hospitals, since their salaries are very low, a top doctor in a hosptial can only earn the equivalent of ca. $50,000 and must expand his salary through private practice in many clinics around the country. Provision was also made in the agreement for the peripheral areas where it is difficult to attract doctors.

However the young doctors, interns, who take the brunt of the difficult conditions in hospitals, decided that the IMA did not have their interests at heart and a large group of them broke off from the IMA and decided to take their own case to the Health Ministry. Of course, the response was we just finished negotiating a broad agreement and we can't do more, so too bad. This caused the interns to see red, and they decided to resign en masse, note not strike but resign, give up their jobs completely. At first the Supreme Court ruled that this was illegal, since they were acting as an unrecognized organization. So the interns reissued their letters of resignation each one personally. The only response was that PM Netanyahu, offered tens of thousands of Shekels to each doctor who commits him/herself to stay in the public sector and not subsidize their salary with private practice. But this cut little weight with the interns and as of today some 500 of them resiged, with another 200 due to stop work within a week.

Most hospitals have been put on an emergency basis, with the senior doctors doing the interns work, but there is no out patients clinics and only elective surgery. Only those already in hosptial and acute cases, such as accidents are being attended to. This is particularly true of the large city hospitals, such as Ichilov in Tel Aviv and Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer. Such mass resignations can bring the whole health system to its knees. So far GPs and private hospitals such as Laniado in Netanya are unaffected.

On Tuesday also the Head of the Histadrut national union, Ofer Eini, announced at a press conference that they will be calling a general strike in two weeks time if the Government is not responsive to all the demands on the social issues (more competition for prices of food, cheaper housing) and the interns demands. They think they have caught the Government unprepared. But, the Government had set up the Trachtenberg Committee that last week submitted its conclusions and recommendations. Of course, the left are not prepared to wait for these recommendations to be implemented and the Report was only just received by the Government. The majority of Israelis would prefer that this be handled through Government negotiations and not through strikes and street protests. There will be difficult days ahead, because if Government spending increases significantly for these social issues, then we could find ourselves in Greece's shoes in a few years time, with a sovereign debt and bank crisis that was brought on by too much Government spending and not enough income.

Two clashes

2011-10-10T18:22:00.000+02:00

Today on the TV news I saw reports of two clashes, one between ultra-orthodox (haredi) and orthodox Jews in Beth Shemesh and the other the clash between Coptic Christians and Muslims in Cairo. These reports received equal time, I suppose the editors like to be even-handed. But, the difference between these two stories is enormous. No-one was killed or even injured in the clashes in Beit Shemesh, while 25 were killed in the clashes in Cairo during which armed police intervened and were responsible for some of the deaths.

The clash in Beth Shemesh has been going on for some months, since the opening of the new school there intended as a school for Orthodox girls. Since the school adjoins a new haredi district, the haredim expected to get control of the school, but they did not. It was planned even before their district was so populated. They claim that the Orthodox girls are immodestly dressed and call them prostitutes, whores, and throw fruit and even stones at the children. Now their mothers go with them to protect them and there is a permanent police presence that has resulted in a reduction of the protests.

The clashes in Egypt are so much more serious, in that the Copts constitute 10% of the Egyptian population and are not prepared to stand by and see their churches attacked and their people murdered. If democracy is to come to Egypt, then the treatment of this large minority is a test for that system. So far, even though the military who control Egypt have promised elections and all parties have shown restraint until elections actually take place, the position of the Copts is indeed precarious. It's the same old story, not all Muslims are murderers, but in this case all murderers are Muslims. The Muslim Brotherhood is the main party, and it does not tolerate Christians and Jews in Egypt. Some of the other parties are more liberal, but they have little power to influence the situation. So what kind of democracy can arise when milllions of Christians are under threat (the Jews were already gotten rid of by Nasser in 1976). I submit that if Christians are being killed in Egypt, the US should reconsider its generous donations to Egypt. The Egyptian National Military Council has said that it views the clashes with utmost seriousness and will prevent any further such demonstrations, much to the chagrin of democrats.

In other stories, the Israeli police arrested two youths on suspicion of carrying out the "price tag" attacks on mosques, including the one in the Israeli Druze village last week. Further, there were anti-Arab slogans daubed on a cemetary in Jaffa and several locations in Bat Yam, and police in these cases have arrested several youths on suspicion. There was a protest march in Jaffa, but no violence was reported. On Monday there were several incidents in Jerusalem of Arab youths throwing stones at buses and trams of the new light rail system.

What happens in Beth Shemesh will change nothing. What happens in Egypt will be a critical test of the so-called "Arab spring."

Panetta's visit

2011-10-09T18:20:00.001+02:00

The following letter appeared in the Jerusalem Post letters on Fri Oct 7, in response to remarks by US Secty of Defense Leon Panetta on his visit to Israel and his meeting with PM Netanyahu earlier in the week.

His comments were insulting to an ally like Israel, that has never asked for US forces to come here and protect us. He advised Israel not to act unilaterally against Iran under any circumstances, but to rely on US protection. As if we believe that the US, especially under Pres. Obama, has our best intertests at heart and will act to protect us. If Iran is on the point of developing nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them by missile, then who would be their first target? Can we depend on the US to act, even if it is also threatened by such a development, by the threat to its Arab allies (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain) as well as to the US forces still present in Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel must always retain the freedom of action that it needs for its own defense and as the most powerful regional player should be treated with respect and not patronized.

Sir:
Secretary Panetta: the last time we depended on the United States to rescue us was when Pres. Johnson said that he would send an "international armada" of ships thru the Straits of Tiran to break the siege of Eilat imposed by Pres. Nasser of Egypt in 1967. Only it never happened, he could only send a US aircraft carrier, and that never arrived. So don't lecture us about depending on the "might" of the USA. If we depended on anybody else for our own defence we'd be in deep trouble.
But, if it comes to attacking a country intent on destroying us, such as Iran, then we would be happy for the help. You are right we should not do it unilaterally, we should expect to depend on the leader of the free world, if the US is still that, to support us. So please let us know when the threat from Iran becomes imminent, and then we can respond together, as allies should.
Jack Cohen
Netanya

Sarah's key

2011-10-07T13:44:00.000+02:00

The movie called "The Key", based on the best-selling novel "Sarah's key" by Tatiana de Rosnay, documents in vivid detail the rounding up of the Jews of Paris by the French police in July 1942. By focusing on one family it shows how they were peremptorily arrested and forced into the Velodrome d'Hiver, a cycling arena, with no water, food or sanitation. An estimated 13,152 Jews were incarcerated there under terrible conditions for days, guarded by French police, who would not allow them any water or food! Some commited suicide, others simply died. After 5 days they started sending the Jews to various holding camps, guarded by French police, until the men, women and children were separated and shipped off by train to Aushwitz to be murdered by the Nazis.

The complicity of the French police and nation in this disgusting and inhuman action has been apologized for (finally) by Pres. Chirac in 1995, but is it enough? The Velodrome was demolished years ago but there is a plaque and a statue to commemorate the event. The story of "Sarah's key" is that in order to save her younger brother, the little girl Sarah locks him in a secret cupboard, expecting to be back in a few days. But, of course she is trapped in the camps, but tries desperately to escape in order to save him. She is taken in by a French farming family, who take her back to Paris to find him, but of course by the time they open the door of the cupboard the child is dead.

The story is told through flashbacks and is revealed by an American reporter played by Kirsten Scott Thomas, whose husband lived in the apartment that was abandoned by Sarah's family. She reveals the history of the apartment and traces the girl to America, where after marrying and having a son she committed suicide. When the reporter traces the son to Italy and reveals his background to him he at first completely rejects it, he had no idea of the real story since his mother never told him and never revealed that he is in fact Jewish. Only after his dying father confirms the story and gives him his mother's diaries and documentation does he realize the truth of the story and does he accept the facts of his background.

So many of those who survived the Holocaust felt it was too dangerous to let their children know that they were Jewish and kept it secret from them, even in the comparative safety of America. Can we ever recover from this great evil?

Blood is thicker than water

2011-10-06T13:41:00.001+02:00

Some of you may know that I have been instrumental in having Gloria Mound's "Casa Shalom" move to the Netanya Academic College to form the basis of the new International Institute for the Study of Secret Jews (Anusim). Anusim is the Hebrew term meaning "forced" that is preferable to the old term "marrano" that is derogatory. We now have a Facebook page for the Institute at
http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-International-Institute-for-Studies-Secret-Jews/127599744000151?ref=ts
Please visit the page. There you will find many interesting stories: from Calabria in Italy, Portugal and New Mexico, as well as links to related web sites. Here is one of the stories.

Blood is thicker than water by Sonya A. Loya

Growing up in a Spanish Catholic home, I never felt like I belonged. Nor did the baptismal waters have any power over my blood’s calling. I can remember my first holy communion, it felt as if I were outside the hour glass, not part of the sand. At a young age, I was asking questions that not only got me into trouble but led to me finally leaving the church in 1978 at age 18, with little or no suitable answers. After my divorce in 1996 and return to New Mexico, my attraction to Judaism grew stronger.

In 1999, I was invited to a three-day messianic conference. My ignorance led me to the unknown, but a little closer to my destiny. I was annoyed by a woman who shadowed me the whole time, constantly asking me questions about my family history. I questioned her as to why she was inquiring so much about my family. Her reply was, from what you tell me, you’re from the marranos. I asked her; doesn't that word mean pig? Her reply was yes, but it's a historical term. Then she explained and gave me a web-site with over 10,000 names which the Vatican had just released from the archives of the Spanish Inquisition (www.sephardim.com).

After my vague practice of Judaism since 1996, in 2004 I asked my parents for a blessing to open Bat-Tzion Hebrew learning center. It was at this time my father told my mom and I that he had known since he was six years old that he was Jewish. He was told to keep the family secret, since he was born in 1938, during WW-2. The Inquisition didn't end until 1912 in New Mexico.

After meeting Bennett Greenspan from Family Tree DNA, Dr. Stanley Hordes, who had just published "To the Ends of the Earth; The Crypto Jews of New Mexico" and a previous NM State Historian, Adjunct professor and authority on the topic, I also met rabbi Stephen Leon, in El Paso, Tx. who had been working with Anousim for about 18 years at the time. Within a year, my life had changed. I had returned to Judaism through a conversion with the Conservative movement. My parents did DNA testing, finding my father had Levitical markers.

A few days after my dad's DNA results came in, a friend sent me through the mail, "The Glass Makers: an Odyssey of the Jews, the first 3000 years,” by Samuel Kurinski, which opened a new window of genealogy for me. I found the Inquisition records of Juan Robles, who was one of 8 glass makers burned at the stake in Spain, in 1535 by the Holy office of the Inquisition for Judaizing. Then finding out my maternal great grandmother's last name was Robles, left me wondering why I was the only one in the family who is a glass artist.

Rabbi Leon, wrote a resolution, which passed unanimously Dec. 2009, through the conservative movement, welcoming back B'nai anousim who want to return to Judaism. This along with educating conservative communities about the Spanish Inquisition and their descendants on Tisha B'av. As a result our 8th Annual Anousim Conference was held in Israel, Aug. 2011. It was during this trip that I discovered more information on the Loya families, ie. 3 rabbis in Morocco, named De Loya, between the 17th-19th centuries. I found 15 Loya families listed in the phone book in Tel Aviv. Dr. Shabtay, an Israeli anthropologist, made some calls for me the last day of our visit. With two of the Loya families she discovered some migration patterns from 1492 to the late 1500's when some of them immigrated back to Israel, with land grant purchases in Tiberius and Tzfat. There is an ancient Loya synagogue in Tiberius as well. I look forward to my next visit to Israel, to meet the Loya clans and to visit the Loya synagogue.

One of my greatest rewards was performing our Jewish wedding in the Old City of Jerusalem at the Sephardic educational court yard, putting our chuppah in front of the photo of Isabella & Ferdinand.

A "price tag" too far

2011-10-05T13:40:00.000+02:00

The Noor Mosque in Tuba Zanghariya village in the Galillee was torched on Sunday night. The fact that the arsonists left a message in Hebrew sprayed on the wall naming "price tag" (mahir tug) indicates that it was the work of Jewish extremists who were seeking revenge for the murder last week of American-Israeli Asher Palmer and his baby son. However, this attack was significantly different from previous attacks of this kind on mosques, that took place in two West Bank villages, since this was the first such attack on an Israeli Arab village. Not only that but the arsonists failed to check that this is a Beduin Arab village, where the villagers are loyal to the State of Israel, celebrate Yom Ha'atzmaut (Israeli Independence Day) instead of the Nakba (catastrophe day) and serve in the IDF.

There were many sentiments of support for the village, up to and including President Peres, who visited the site and expressed the deep shame and condolences of the Jewish people for this crime. The police are investigating, although in previous cases they have been unable to identify the culprits. PM Netanyahu expressed his shock at this attack and promised that the police will do all in their power to bring the culprits to justice and promised greater support for their efforts. The US State Dept. also deplored the attack, but noted the Israeli Government likewise strongly opposed this vandalism. It is important to note the great difference between the Palestinian Arabs who live on the West Bank, who generally may be involved in anti-Israel activities, to the Beduin, Druse and sometimes Christian Arabs who live in Israel, who are Israeli citizens and are often loyal to the State of Israel and serve in its armed forces.

After a small riot in the village in which 4 were arrested, the situation has calmed down. Local Jewish settlements, kibbutzim and villages, that have good relations with the Arab villagers, have pledged their support to repair the damage. The outpouring of shock and sympathy in Israel must have boomeranged on the Jewish extremists who carried out the attack, as they apparently did this in order to drive a wedge between Arabs and Jews. But, it did not succeed. This was a "price tag" attack too far!

The numbers game

2011-10-04T13:39:00.000+02:00

The spokesman for the Palestinians said last Thursday in Ramallah that they have 8 Security Council members committed to vote for the recognition of Palestine as a member state of the UN. They need only one more vote to obtain the necessary majority. They claim India, Brazil, Russia, China, Lebanon, South Africa, Gabon and Nigeria. Nigeria is surprising since Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited Nigera recently and publicly declared that the Nigerian President had assured him that they will vote against the resolution. The US, UK, France, Portugal and Germany are expected to vote against, while the countries holding the balance are Bosnia-Herzegovina and Colombia. Pres. Abbas is visiting Colombia imminently to try to persuade them to vote for the resolution, and they are sending a representative to Bosnia. The SC has established a Committee consisting of a member from each country to consider the recognition application, which may take weeks to come to a decision. First they are obtaining legal advice to see if the application is indeed valid. If the resolution eventually passes, then the US will be forced to use its veto. Then France may introduce a resolution to recognize Palestine as a State without voting rights. But, this is thought to have little chance of success.

The Quartet (US,UN EU and Russia) have asked the two protagonists to immediately restart negotiations. Israel has accepted, while the PA has refused. Surely their attitude towards making peace should be taken account in the decision to vote for the resolution. But, apparently not. The Palestinians want a state with no peace, rather than peace and then a state. In respoonse the US Congress has blocked the donation of m$200 to the PA, about one third of the total annual aid package. The Obama Adminsitration opposes this cut-off and is scrambling to try to circumvent it and give the PA more money to show that it is not antagonistic, even though the US is opposing their policy.

The decision announced by the Israeli Government to build 1100 apartments in Gilo has been used by the PA as an excuse to oppose negotiations. But, this is merely a planning decision by a municipal committee, no actual work on the buildings will be done, probably for years. In order to stop this going ahead the PA should negotiate now, since all issues including settlements will be on the agenda. But, Gilo is not a "settlement" neither is it part of East Jerusalem as some ignorant journalists have said, but it is a southern suburb of Jerusalem and as such is part of the Israeli capital. However, a planning decision could be reversed in negotiations.

Al Andalus (Andalucia) is the Muslim name for Spain and in Muslim belief it must be reconquered for Islam. Although many would consider this old history and probably impossible to accomplish, nevertheless for the Muslims of Spain and north Africa it is a live issue. SImilarly, the Muslims of the Middle East regard the land of Israel, the historic land of the Jews, as their land, because they conquered it in 637ce, and they intend to take it back. That is why the current Palestinian leadership CANNOT recognize Israel as the "Jewish State" and neither can they compromise on the return of the Muslim Arab refugees to this land. Such an attitude is alien to our western way of thinking, where compromise on both sides, including the vanquished side, is expected. Only when one understands this aspect of Islamic culture can one begin to understand the reasons for the inflexibility and unilateral action of the Palestinians. If they cannot defeat Israel on the battlefield, although I don't believe they have given up trying (witness the attitudes of Iran and Turkey), they can try to defeat Israel in the diplomatic sphere and in public opinion. It is those who are ignorant of their motivations who give them popular support at the UN and in the western media. That is why even a defeat at the Security Council will be followed by a vote in the General Assembly, that they will likely win, followed by a huge pr campaign to isolate and delegitimze Israel. We must be prepared for this eventuality.

Labor's resurgence?

2011-10-03T13:38:00.000+02:00

The victory of Shelly Yachimovich in the primary election for the leader of the Labor Party last Friday is a sign of resuscitation of that Party that once led Israel. In its heyday, under Ben Gurion and Golda Meir, the Party had up to 45 seats of the 120 member Knesset and was the party of power. Only in 1977, after the narrow Israeli victory in the 1973 Yom Kippur War and several financial scandals in the Labor Government, did Likud under PM Menachem Begin take over. For several years Likud and Labor balanced each other out, until the split in Likud over the disengagement from Gaza in 2006, after which PM Sharon founded Kadima as a centrist party. This took votes away from Labor and they sunk to their lowest level in the last election with only 13 mandates!

The battle in Labor was over who could take the party into the future and Shelly won against all the old timers, Amram Mitzna, Amir Peretz and Isaac Herzog. She also beat relative newcomer Avishai Braverman, former head of Ben Gurion University. In a recent Jerusalem Post poll the Labor Party was predicted to win 26 seats against Likud's 32. Quite a slim majority. But, there has been a general shift to the right in recent Israeli elections, that has basically eclipsed the far left parties, such ar Meretz (only 2 mandates). So Shelly will have a difficult task to overcome this trend and the relative stability and success (economic and political) of the center right Netanyahu coalition. She will also have to work hard to establish herself as the leader of the opposition in place of Tzipi Livni of the Kadima Party and also Ehud Barak and his new Independence Party that he split off from Labor with 5 of the 13 mandates to avoid defeat in this very Labor leader election.

Shelly (which means "mine" in Hebrew) was born in Kfar Saba in 1960 and became a TV reporter and anchor woman. As a result she was well known to many Israelis and when she joined the Labor Party in her first internal election she shot up to no. 8 on their list. From there her rise has been swift, and she represents a more pleasant image for the party compared to the rather dour visage of the old time members whose internal squabbles have lost them support. Whether she can resurrect the Party and bring it back to anything like its former self remains to be seen.

Targeted killing

2011-10-02T13:36:00.000+02:00

The US has carried out a "targeted killing" using a drone, a method pioneered by the IDF and often criticized by human rights advocates, which they have called "extra-judicial killing". The target in this case was Anwar al-Awlaki (aged 40), believed to be the head of al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen. He was struck down while driving to a meeting in north Yemen. Several other important al Qaeda operatives were killed with him. This was confirmed by the Yemeni Government in Sana'a and by US military sources. This is a victory for the US in removing "the head of the snake," since Awlaki was considered to be a younger replacement for Osama bin Laden, killed in Pakistan 6 months ago.

When one looks at the story of Awlaki, it is surprising that he lived for so long and that he was not arrested or targeted by the CIA or US forces long ago. Awlaki was born in the US to Yemeni parents. He was brought up in Yemen until he was 7 and then returned to the US. He lived in New Mexico and eventually went to College in Colorado and California, where he studied engineering. He was arrested several times for soliciting prostitution and petty thefts. Nevertheless, he became a Muslim Imam and was employed at mosques, first in Southern California and then in Virginia. He became known as a radical Muslim extremist and his sermons were said to be influential on the internet and on CD, notably in English. It cannot be coincidence that in both places where he was located he befriended members of the team that hijacked planes and were suicide bombers in the 9/11 incident. The people he helped were young Muslim immigrants to the US who knew little English and Awlaki helped them with the procedures needed to become US residents. They attended his mosques and subsequently became hijackers on 9/11. However, Awlaki was not suspected and was not arrested as a co-conspirator. Not only that, he was invited as an expert on militant Islam by the State Department and spoke at several meetings there (how blind can you be?)

He moved back to Yemen in 2002 via England where he spent 2 years and continued his nefarious activities. He stated many times that he "hated" the US and wanted to act against it. It cannot be coincidence that he was a "spiritual" advisor to (1) British-born Richard Reed, the "shoe-bomber" who was stopped from blowing up an airliner in flight, (2) the so-called "underwear" bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian would-be plane bomber, who visited him in Yemen in 2009, and by (3) American-born psychologist Major Nidal Hassan at Fort Hood, Texas who murdered 13 people and had exchanged many e-mails with him. Also, (4) In New York, the Pakistani-American man who pleaded guilty to the May 2010 Times Square car bombing attempt told interrogators he was "inspired" by al-Awlaki after making contact over the Internet.

Awlaki was the first American-born individual who was declared an "imminent danger to US national security," and he was targeted unsuccessfully in the past. This successful targeting with the specific approval of Pres. Obama was the first of an American-born and educated, so called "home grown" Muslim. I strongly suspect that it will not be the last.

Incidents

2011-09-28T17:34:00.002+03:00

An Israeli settler and his 18-month-old son were killed when the man lost control of his car after being hit by stones hurled by Palestinians. "Preliminary results of the investigation lead us to conclude that the father was hit in the head by a stone, which made him lose control of the vehicle," police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said on Sunday. The crash occurred on Friday. The settler, 25-year-old Israeli-American Asher Palmer, and his son, Yonathan, lived in the Kiryat Arba settlement near Hebron in the southern West Bank. Police had initially ruled out an attack against the car. On the day of the crash, Palestinians had hurled stones at settlers' vehicles, particularly in the region where the settler and the child were killed. It is believed that the stone was thrown from a car going in the opposite direction and smashed thru the windshield hitting the driver. Although the death of a Palestinian rioter was given headline coverage during the UN presentations last week, the death of Palmer and his son have not received any coverage in the international press this week.

Former Al Jazeera Afghanistan bureau chief Samer Allawi, a Palestinian, has admitted to being a Hamas operative. Allawi was arrested by Shin Bet Israeli security in August in the West Bank after entering from Jordan. After his confession Allawi was given a three year suspended sentence. He admitted he was recruited by Hamas in 1993 and on several occasions had visited Syria to receive training and instructions, including meetings with Mousa abu Marzook, Deputy Head of Hamas in Syria. He also met with other Al Jazeera journalists at a meeting in Saudi Arabia where they discussed how they could aid Hamas by criticizing the US military in Afghanistan.

A decision by the Israeli Government to build a further 1,100 apartments in the southern Jerusalem neighborhood of Gilo, that is over the 1967 ceasefire line, was widely criticized Wednesday by the UN, the US and the Quartet. The US State Department issued a statement by Secty. Hillary Clinton saying that this move was "counterproductive" and was a unilateral step, while the Palestinian spokesman said that this decision was a deliberate move to undermine the Palestinian efforts for statehood. Most Israelis regard this development as part of a natural increase in areas that are an integral part of Jewish Jerusalem. The Quartet does not support any preconditions to peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, so the longer the Palestinians wait until negotiations begin the more building there will have been. Both sides are currently preparing their formal responses to the request by the Quartet for a renewal of negotiations.

Following the speech by Pres. Obama in the UN GA last week, his popularity rating in Israel has increased, while in the US, his rating among Jews and all segments of the population has decreased. But, such fluctuations are not a serious measure of the result of actual voting in elections. What will happen in the Middle East depends a lot on whether or not Obama can retain the Presidency in the next election, or whether a strong opponent appears on the Republican side in the primaries.
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PS. There will be a gap for a few days due to Rosh Hashana. Shana Tovah u'metukah to all my readers!

Excerpts from the UN speeches

2011-09-27T17:33:00.000+03:00

Here is the "Zionist" section of Pres. Obama's speech to the Gen. Assembly of the UN on Sept. 21, 2011:

"But understand this as well: America’s commitment to Israel’s security is unshakeable. Our friendship with Israel is deep and enduring. And so we believe that any lasting peace must acknowledge the very real security concerns that Israel faces every single day.

Let us be honest with ourselves: Israel is surrounded by neighbors that have waged repeated wars against it. Israel’s citizens have been killed by rockets fired at their houses and suicide bombs on their buses. Israel’s children come of age knowing that throughout the region, other children are taught to hate them. Israel, a small country of less than eight million people, look out at a world where leaders of much larger nations threaten to wipe it off of the map. The Jewish people carry the burden of centuries of exile and persecution, and fresh memories of knowing that six million people were killed simply because of who they are. Those are facts. They cannot be denied.

The Jewish people have forged a successful state in their historic homeland. Israel deserves recognition. It deserves normal relations with its neighbors."

It needed to be said and Obama said it, but I wish I could believe in his "unshakeable" commitment.

Here is an excerpt from Pres. Abbas's speech at the UN Sept. 23, 2011

"The core issue here is that the Israeli government refuses to commit to terms of reference for the negotiations that are based on international law and United Nations resolutions, and that it frantically continues to intensify building of settlements on the territory of the State of Palestine."

Here is PM Netanyahu's reply:

"President Abbas just stood here, and he said that the core of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the settlements. Well, that's odd. Our conflict has been raging for -- was raging for nearly half a century before there was a single Israeli settlement in the West Bank. So if what President Abbas is saying was true, then the -- I guess that the settlements he's talking about are Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jaffa, Be'er Sheva. Maybe that's what he meant the other day when he said that Israel has been occupying Palestinian land for 63 years. He didn't say from 1967; he said from1948. I hope somebody will bother to ask him this question because it illustrates a simple truth: The core of the conflict is not the settlements. The settlements are a result of the conflict..

The settlements have to be --it's an issue that has to be addressed and resolved in the course of negotiations. But the core of the conflict has always been and unfortunately remains the refusal of the Palestinians to recognize a Jewish state in any border."

Consequences?

2011-09-26T17:30:00.001+03:00

There should be consequences as a result of the unilateral move for Palestinian statehood by Pres. Abbas of the PA and PLO. There must be consequences for such a unilateral move against all previous bilateral agreements and negotiations. Some might applaud Abbas for taking a bold step, for drawing attention to the Palestinian cause after there has been more attention to the other Arab countries and for creating a new momentum or atmosphere. But, this maneuver was largely a PR move and an attempt to avoid serious negotiations with Israel. At all costs he must avoid an "end of conflict" agreement or recognizing Israel as a Jewish State, that would be the end of the Palestinian cause and could spell "curtains" for him. Even now, before the Security Council has voted, Hamas who rejected his initiative, are planning his downfall and replacement. Woe be to Israel if Hamas ever gets control of the West Bank.

Now immediately after the application has been submitted the Quartet (US, Russia, EU and UN) came up with an appeal, that supposedly took them four days of intense meetings to craft (?), that asks both sides to go back to the negotiating table. Israel immediately accepted this invitation, in line with PM Netanyahu's speech last Friday. Once again Abbas rejected the invitation. But, that gives Abbas the possibility of no consquences following his unilateral application. How can Abbas accept, after he has justified his application for UN recognition on the grounds that negotiations have been a waste of time as far as the Palestinians are concerned and Israel is still building and occupying settlements on what they consider Palestinian land. But the Quartet request made no mention of preconditions, indeed they oppose preconditions to negotiations, so Abbas refused. Then negative consequences should follow for him. But, once again the Palestinians may get away with it unless Israel takes action.

Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz has stated that there should be negative economic consequences for the PA from its unilateral statehood bid. He refers to the monthly tax rebates that Israel pays the PA. He suggests that once the PA made such a bid, without
reference to Israel, then they broke all agreements and Israel should withhold these payments. Others have urged that the US Congress reconsider payments that the US makes to the PA, that basically allows it to survive. Why should they continue to support an organization that in effect no longer exists, but has moved unilaterally to change its status. If the Congress judges that the move by Abbas was intended to avoid negotiating peace with Israel, why should US taxpayer monies continue to be paid to support such policies.

Israel must await the vote in the Security Council in about a month, when at least because of the US veto, the application will be rejected. Then Israel must wait to see if there is a Palestinian application to the General Assembly, which there is likely to be and which will be passed by a large majority. But, while this will not have any actual legal standing, it is only advisory without the SC vote, nevertheless the Palestinians and their supporters will hail it as an actual recognition. Then Israel must act, Netanyahu must order the IDF to occupy all of the West Bank except area A, the Palestinian cities, and Netanyahu must declare those areas of dense Jewish settlement part of Israel and not part of the Palestinian State. There will be criticism of Israel as usual, but Netanyahu must make it clear that he was forced into this action by the Palestinian's unilateral maneuver. At that point the future looks uncertain. Let's hope that no country wants to go to war for the Palestinian cause and for this tiny area of land. But, it could happen. Israel must hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

The UN speeches

2011-09-25T17:32:00.000+03:00

If the presentations at the UN General Assembly of Pres. Abbas of the PA and PM Netanyahu of Israel last Friday were a popularity contest, then Abbas would win hands down. But, we all know that the majority of member states of the UN General Assembly see the Palestinian cause as their favorite cause and as Netanyahu pointed out some 95% of resolutions condemning a State are directed against Israel, and not the most terrible violators of human rights, such as China, N. Korea, Iran, Syria, etc. In an organization where the Chair of the Security Council is held by Lebanon, whose Government is controlled by the terrorist organization Hizbollah, what can one expect?

So Abbas received plaudits for his historic move to break the impasse of 18 years of "fruitless" talks. Yet when he returns to reality in Ramallah, he will find little has changed on the ground, except that he has destroyed the one basis for future peace talks that was bilateral negotiations under the auspices of UN resolution 242, that he has thrown out of the window. In order to avoid actually having peace talks and leaving all options open, Abbas has outflanked all peace initiatives and taken a deliberate unilateral step. Since there are actually only two sides to this conflict, it doesn't really matter what the others think, what matters is what the Israeli Government thinks about his move, and the facilitators of the negotiations, the Americans. And they think that it stinks. Since the basis for negotiations is now ended, there will be certain consequences, but Netanyahu did not tell us what they might be, nor did he threaten anything.

One feature of Netanyahu's speech was that he hardly mentioned the unilateral bid for statehood by Abbas, but he emphasized Israel's over-riding security needs. He initially addressed the real issues that concern Israel and Israelis, namely Iran, its hateful philosophy and its policy of developing nuclear weapons, Turkey and its turn against Israel, and the upheavals in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world that have not yet resolved into anything like democratic states. As he indicated Israel must be prepared for anything. Abbas is no longer a legally elected official, his period of office expired last January, and he intends to retire, on a high note. So what assurances does Israel have that this now self-declared state will not allow terrorists to bring missiles into the West Bank with which to bombard Israel as Hamas is doing from Gaza. And what can stop Hamas taking over this supposed state. Such consequences cannot be accepted by Israel!

The crux of the matter, as Netanyhau stated, is that States do not go to the UN to be established, they go there once established after peace negotiations, as South Sudan recently did with Sudan, to be recognized. For all the fanfare and talk of historic moments, etc. etc. this maneuver was a popularity contest, but historically it will be seen for what it was, a hollow moment in which nothing real was accomplished. Once the Security Council considers the Palestinian request and once it is rejected, then only negative consequences can follow.

Abbas's UN gambit

2011-09-23T17:29:00.001+03:00

Gabon and Bosnia are two very small, very unimportant countries that do not usually have any influence over world affairs. But, with the current situation at the UN, the importance of Gabon and Bosnia-Herzegovina has been enhanced. The Security Council of the UN is composed of five permanent members — China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States — and ten non-permament members (with year of term's end): Bosnia and Herzegovina (2011); Brazil (2011); Colombia (2012); Gabon (2011); Germany (2012); India (2012); Lebanon (2011);Nigeria (2011); Portugal (2012); South Africa (2012).

Now of these 15 countries, several are certain to vote for the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian State, a proposal that Pres. Abbas of the PA has committed to put before the SC, something that he will announce publicly next Friday, and he will then submit a formal letter to the Secty. Gen. Ban-ki Moon. It takes nine of the countries voting to pass or reject such a resolution. But, which ones will vote for the proposition that the UN should unilaterally recognize a Palestinian State?

Now mind you, such a vote itself will be illegal and will be contrary to all previous UN SC resolutions, that promoted bilateral negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians (such as SC 242). It would be illegal because the UN can only vote to recognize a state that pre-exists the vote, such as in the cases of Israel and South Sudan, the most recent member recognized by the UN. In other words, the UN cannot establish a state (the UN "Partition Plan" of 1948 proposed partition of Palestine, it did not of itself grant sovereignty to any state), it can only recognize one that already exists, and clearly a Palestinian State does not already exist. Secondly, the UN is committed to the folllowing statement "Unilateral action taken by either party cannot prejudge the outcome of negotiations and will not be recognised by the international community," Joint Statement adopted by the Quartet (US, EU, UN and Russia) June 26, 2009. This statement was adopted in order to indicate to Israel that the building of settlements on the West Bank, was considered an Israeli unilateral action by the Quartet. Indeed, to satisfy the US, PM Netanyahu introduced a complete moratorium on Israeli building on the West Bank for 10 months, but it was not enough for the Palestinians, and they subsequently made such a moratorium a precondition for further talks. Such a statement cannot simply be overlooked when the Palestinians take such a significant unilateral step. Incidentally, Hamas in Gaza also opposes such a resolution, because it involves dealing with the UN, the US and with Israel. So much for the unity of the Palestinians.

So the ones that will vote for the resolution irrespective are Lebanon, South Africa (because the PLO supported the ANC when they were in exile), China and India (because they think it is the third world thing to do), and probably Brazil and Colombia. Russia and Britain are likely to abstain, and French President Nicholas Sarkozy said France will only support an "observer" status for Palestine. Those who may vote against with the USA, are Portugal, Germany (Israel's traditional friend) and Nigeria. That leaves Gabon and Bosnia, so the US is plying them with all sorts of goodies to get them to vote against. Bosnia-Herzegovina is a Muslim country, although they have a large Serb minority. But their Islam is moderate and they owe their independence to the USA, so they may vote against. Gabon is merely a small, impoverished African State. They may hold the balance for the vote in the SC. If the vote appears to pass or have a majority, then the US will forced to use its veto (all permanent members of the SC have a veto) and that will stop the process. But, if the US uses its veto, that will cause anti-American riots in the Arab/Muslim world, so the US is trying to avoid using its veto. Why is Pres. Abbas, who has been treated royally by Pres Obama, inflicting this on the US?

If the SC rejects Abbas's gambit for unilateral independence then he can go to the General Assembly where he will receive a much more favorable response, with ca. 120 countries already slated to vote for the proposition. However this will also not gain them a State by itself, yet will raise all sorts of expectations in the Arab/Muslim world, that can only have negative consequences. Already there have been large demonstrations in Ramallah, that Abbas said would be peaceful. But then, of course, there were the usual riots all over the West Bank, with Palestinian youth throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails at Israeli soldiers manning checkpoints (this was not shown on most media because they are pro-Palestinian). Unfortunately we can expect worse violence starting Friday after Abbas and Netanyahu give their speeches at the UN GA. But, the actual vote may not take place for some time and the worst violence may be yet to come.

Harbinger

2011-09-22T17:28:00.001+03:00

When the revolutions of so-called "enlightenment" occured in Europe from the 18th century onwards and cries of "liberte, fraternite et egalite" were heard throughout the lands formerly controlled by Emperors and Kings, it was believed that a new era of democracy would be ushered in. At least this was the liberal interpretation. But, instead the removal of the monarchies and their heavy hand of control gave rise to popular movements that were anything but enlightened. In France you had the Revolution, that swept away all constaints and ended up guillotining thousands of "aristocrats" (see for example Simon Schama's magisterial "Citizens"), in Germany the removal of petty Junkers and Landgraves resulted in virulently anti-Semitic popular movements that led to National Socialism (see for example "The Pity of it All" by Amos Elon) and in Russia, the Revolution went from Romanovs to Communists who held power for 70 years and murdered millions (see for example "The Gulag Archipelago" by Alexander Solzhenitsyn).

So my question is, why should we expect a gradual evolution to democracy and reason in the Muslim Lands that are undergoing social revolutions, that have been mis-named "The Arab Spring," merely because they have removed petty and controlling dictators? Maybe this is a transition that every human society must go through to get to liberal democracy, or maybe there are some societies that at their core are not liberal and when their passions are released will automatically turn on the weakest elements. Hence the Egyptian mob that ransacked the Israeli Embassy is but a harbinger of things to come. Incidentally, the so-called democracy of Iraq is in reality a battle-ground between Sunni and Shia and is becoming effectively an Iranian colony. Syria is not only undergoing a revolt against the Alawite dictatorship of Pres. Assad, but is likely to continue into a further bloodbath when the Sunnis take revenge on the Alawites. Libya and Egypt are effectively under military control and who knows where they will end up.

This leaves Israel in a difficult position, not only are we the only liberal democracy in the region, but we are surrounded by these huge populations that are ignorant of reality, that believe all sorts of nasty rumors ("Israelis delight in killing Palestinian children," "Jews are sons of pigs and dogs," "9/11 was part of a Zionist conspiracy" etc., etc.). And add to this the gradual transition of Turkey from secular democracy to Islamic State, with a strong tinge of imperial and anti-Israel emphasis.

Since the Arab world is rife with division and instability, foreign powers are slavering over the potential carving up of the spoils. In this context you can put Iran (the Shia champion), America (unwittingly being drawn into a regional power play) and Turkey (former colonial master of the Arabs). Turkey PM Erdogan's recent tour of Arab countries is definitely part of his campaign to curry favor with the Arabs. Israel is caught in the middle. It will require a tough leader to guide Israel through the Scylla and Charybdis of this mess. But, although Israel is small, it is a regional player and must exercise its might and brights to survive the coming challenges. Seen in this context the Palestinian situation is not a cause as many erroneously think, but rather a side issue of the main game. The leaders of Israel must not be distracted by stories of Palestinian "suffering" and need for a state, they must focus on the strengthening of Israel for the coming battle against renewed Arab and Muslim extremism that has little memory of past defeats.
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*To all my loyal readers I wish you a Happy New Year, Shana Tovah, and a prosperous, healthy and fulfilling year ahead.
For those who wish to see my previous blogs go to ISblog (www.commentfromisraelblog.blogspot.com)

USE?

2011-09-21T17:27:00.000+03:00

It has been said that the Eurozone countries cannot allow Greece to default because that would lead to the breakdown of the whole euro system. Steps taken by the major euro players France and Germany to prevent Greek default seem to indicate that this is true and we might then see a move towards greater federalization in the EU.

The Eurozone of 17 countries (with a further 8 EU countries obligated to join) led by Germany and France, have already loaned over one hundred billion euros to Greece, that is being paid in instalments or tranches. But, the deficit in Greece due to Government over-spending and bad bank loans is still ca. 320 billion euros. Since Greece has insufficient income (from taxes and other sources) to repay its debts and has still not enacted enough austerity measures, it needs another large incursion of funds to avoid default. Failing that, Greece could leave the Eurozone and revert to its former currency the drachma. And there are other Eurozone countries in great financial difficulties, such as Ireland and Portugal, who might then follow. So to save the situation and support the euro the Eurozone ministers (not including the UK, that is a member of the EU but not the Eurozone), have agreed on two moves. The first is the establishment of a "rescue fund," a large central fund, now past three hundred billion euros, that will be available in future to rescue member countries in financial difficulties. This is modelled on the Federal Reserve in the US, that was established after the dollar failed in the 1929 crash. But the States in the US do not have their own monetary policy or sovereignty, for example the dollar is the same in Mississippi and New York. This is what the Eurozone is striving for, to have a single monetary policy. But, to do that the countries of the Eurozone must give up some of their sovereignty, something that many of them are loath to do, and the richer countries, such as Germany, must be prepared to share their wealth with the poorer, such as Greece. Not a politically popular policy.

Another maneuver the finance ministers of the Eurozone countries have tentatively considered is the floating of Eurozone Bonds, as opposed to bonds of each separate country. So far there is a mixed reception to this initiative, with Germany against it, saying that financial institutions will be reluctant to buy Euro Bonds given that they are designed to prop up a failing currency. A two day meeting of Eurozone Finance Ministers in Wroclaw, Poland, just wound up without any clear decisions. It remains to be seen whether or not any tactics can work, but the overall strategy is that the Eurozone cannot allow Greece to default if they want the euro to continue, and in order to do this they are forced to further federalize Europe. Whether there will eventually be a United States of Europe or the euro will fail remains to be seen.

Palestinian statehood?

2011-09-20T17:26:00.000+03:00

Pres. Abbas of the PA is a perfect example for the Palestinians. He is illegal, his term as President actually expired in January last year, he has no legal position, but nevertheless the Palestinians follow him, because actually he is the head of the PLO and according to the PLO's charter they are the sole representative of the Palestinian people (neither the PA nor Hamas). In his speech last Friday and since he has said that he doesn't support the use of violence against Israel (i.e. not terrorism) but if violence occurs it will be due to Israel's "occupation," which is the excuse for everything, the Palestinians are never guilty of anything. The fact is that no Muslim leader, least of all a Palestinian leader, can compromise, least of all on territory. What was Muslim territory must remain so forever (they want Spain back) and so he cannot actually compromise on territory. That is why he is going to the UN, because negotiations will require compromises from both sides and he simply cannot do it. He cannot say "I recognise Israel as the State of the Jewish people" because that would in effect be ceding Muslim territory to the Jews, something that is inconceivable. So he is avoiding negotiations, first by putting pre-conditions that prevent them occuring and then outflanking them by going to the UN for recognition.

But the UN cannot establish a state, any state! I saw a news report that said that the Palestinian application to the UN is copied from Israel's application in 1948. But, nothing could be further from the truth! Israel accepted the UN Partition Plan of 1948 and the Arabs rejected it (there was no Palestinian people then!). Then Ben Gurion declared Israeli Statehood and several major countries (US, Russia, France) recognized its existence, and only then did Israel go to the UN for recognition. Before a State can be recognized by the UN it must have control over its own territory, it must have the ability to defend that territory and it must be able to exist both organizationally (i.e. with an organized Government) and economy. Palestine has none of these things! Currently it has no organized Government, its territory is divided between two hostile parties (West Bank and Gaza), it has no economic means of survival (without enormous donations) and no major countries recognize it. Its all a fraud, popular with a lot of people, but actually a PR trick.

I saw an interview in which someone warned Israel and the international community not to respond harshly to the Palestinian gambit. So what are they supposed to do, nothing? Abbas directly flouts Pres. Obama's wishes, he takes unilateral action, that is intended to outflank Israel, and then we shouldn't do anything? Abbas is trying to soften the impact of this total turnaround by saying that after the UN recognition of their State, negotiations for peace can start again. But, why would anyone trust him, when he has thrown negotiations out of the window? What can be expected as a reaction. The two expected consequences are that many donors to the PA will withdraw their support for an illegitmate Palestinian State, including the US, where resolutions are ready to be passed in Congress cutting of all aid. Also, to be expected is that Israel will take its own unilateral action, annexing those areas that it has said that it wants to occupy in land swaps where large majorities of Jews live (including Ariel, Ma'ale Adumim, Etzion, the Jordan Valley, etc.) containing ca. 200,000 Jews. It would be stupid and dangerous for Israel not to take over these areas. How things will then work out is unclear, but you can be sure that Abbas will say, "all we did was apply to the UN for Statehood, and look what they've done, it's not fair!"

The Turkish model

2011-09-19T20:18:00.000+03:00

During his tour of the North African "Arab spring" countries, Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, Turkey's PM Erdogan was greeted with rapturous welcomes. Perhaps the Arab "street" wanted to show that they appreciate the support of a strong Muslim country and a leader that has taken a strident anti-Israel stand. He is certainly more outspoken than their own provisional governments, that have adopted a curious zig-zag policy towards Israel. Last week the Egyptian Foreign Minister said that the Peace Treaty with Israel was not "sacred" and could be changed. After the Israeli Government called in the Egyptian Ambassador to Israel to the Foreign Ministry and complained, the Egyptian Government reversed its statement and said that they had no intention of changing the Israel-Egyptian Peace Treaty.

Nevertheless, Erdogan was intent on sending his own message, that Islam and democracy are compatible, as shown by the Turkish model. He was hosted in Egypt at a public meeting of the Moslem Brotherhood, the source of most Islamism in the world from Hamas to al Qaeda. But, when Erdogan uttered the word "secular" his hosts were very upset and they criticized the use of this term. For them secularism is taboo, they only want to take the Islamist and anti-Israel parts of his message, and reject democracy and secularism. Nevertheless the general message that he brought of Islam and democracy co-existing, was a welcome sign. If these North African Arab countries adopt the Turkish model, they will be a lot better off than they were, but they will still remain strongly anti-Israel.

Then we will have a test, whether their democratic tendency will be stronger that their anti-Israel and anti-Western tendency. It has been proposed (by Francis Fukuyama) that democracies never make war on each other. But, this might be tested if Turkey keeps stirring the pot and the North African Arab countries adopt a form of democracy, yet retain their intense anti-Israel policies. Turkey announced that it is going to support the Palestinian claim for Statehood at the UN. If that is as far as it goes, then fine. A lot depends on how far Erdogan is prepared to go. If he starts sending Turkish warships to patrol the Eastern Mediterranean as he has warned and especially if he sends his warships to escort any future flotillas to Gaza, then this could result in a military clash with the Israeli Navy, and could lead to war. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Noone in Israel wants a war with Turkey.

Unilateral action

2011-09-18T20:17:00.000+03:00

The biggest potential danger threatening Israel, apart from a nuclear Iran, is the impending unilateral application for Statehood by the Palestinians at the UN.

Why are the Palestinians taking this initiative? They claim that after 17 years of negotiations with Israel they have achieved nothing. But, that is not true, the Oslo Accords were very generous to them, and they achieved the establishment of the Palestine Authority and control of all the major Palestinian cities and ca. 95% of the Arab population. Also, Israel withdrew completely from Gaza. They also rejected the generous concessions made by PM Barak to Arafat, and by PM Olmert to Abbas. But, the fact is that no Palestinian leader can afford to make a peace treaty with Israel and accept the "end of conflict". That would lead to a permanent split in the Palestinian entity, which has already in fact occured between Hamas and Fatah. It would also lead to a collapse in Palestinian culture that is totally based on the conflict with Israel (see for example "The Dream Palace of the Arabs" by Fuad Ajami), and it would almost certainly lead to the assassination of any Palestinian leader who would accept Israel and end the conflict. That is why Abbas is making an end run around negotiations with Israel to the UN.

What is the danger in this maneuver? It is not in the application itself, for while the Palestinians surely have enough support to gain passage of a resolution in the General Assembly, this resolution will not guarantee the legitimacy of a sovereign State without the necessary imprimatur of the Security Council. The US has publicly declared that it will veto any unilateral attempts to impose a solution without negotiations. But, the likelihood is that the Palestinian leadership will then move to establish their State on the ground in place of the Palestine Authority that was created under the Oslo Accords of 1993. But, by doing so the Oslo Accords will become invalid and the agreed separation of the West Bank into interim divisions (A for Palestinian control, B for joint control and C for Israeli control) will become void. If the Palestinians then send in their militias (trained and supported by the US, UK and other western countries) or masses of Palestinian civilians to take over all areas, then there could be clashes with the IDF seeking to protect Jews living in settlements in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) where they have a legitimate claim under international law. In summary, the Palestinian application to the UN is effectively a declaration of war against Israel.

The competing claims of the Arabs and Jews will not then be resolved by negotiation but by unilateral Palestinian action followed by reactive Israeli moves. The IDF will be sent in to occupy and protect those areas that include the large Jewish settlement blocs (Ariel, Ma'ale Adumim, Etzion, Maa'le Efraim). If Israel doesn't move, then the Palestinians will take over, with possible calamitous consequences for the 200,000 or so Jews living there, possibly including massacres. If the IDF does take over the Jewish-settled areas, then it is likely that the Israel Government and Knesset will move to annex those areas into Israel, making the Palestinian area remaining less (by ca. 10%) than the total West Bank. This will be considered a "land grab" by the Palestinians and possibly a breach of the UN GA resolution, possibly resulting in sanctions against Israel by the GA, even though these would not be enforceable under international law. This may be interpreted as a causus belli by many Arab and/or Muslim States, leading once again to a state of war between Israel and an expanded Muslim bloc, possibly including Iran and Turkey. It is precisely this scenario that the US and the EU are trying to avoid in persuading Pres. Abbas of the PA from taking this unilateral course of action.

However, in this scenario there is the germ of a potential solution. Once Israel has annexed the regions that it considers essential, the rest of the West Bank will remain under Palestinian control, and the border between them could become a de facto border. Although contested by the Palestinians they might not find enough support to actually result in a war against Israel. After all Syria is otherwise occupied, Egypt is hardly prepared for an external conflict, Lebanon is split between Hizbollah and the Christians, and Jordan is hardly a threat. So it comes down to whether Turkey and/or Iran have the balls to take the bull by the horns and actually make war over this for the Palestinians. I doubt if they would, because Erdogan is interested in currying favor with the Arabs, but not actually fighting for them. Iran might, but they can't depend on Syria now or Hizbollah, and Hamas in Gaza are not a significant military threat. So in any event Israel would win this round and the situation would likely return to an uneasy truce, that in time might solidify into a long-term solution. It's a possible scenario at least, but one of many.

Occam and conspiracy theories

2011-09-16T20:17:00.000+03:00

In the philosophy of science there is an axiom that everyone should adopt, namely "Occam's razor" or Occam's principle. Occam was an English monk who proposed this concept in the 12th century. Simply stated Occam's principle is that if there are two explanations for something one should accept the simpler of the two, or stated another way, if there is a satisfactory explanation for something one need not search for or accept a more complex explanation.

I personally do not like or accept so-called conspiracy theories of events, such as Kennedy's assassination or the Twin Towers collapse. During the 10th anniversary of "9/11" there was endless speculation in the media about why the Twin Towers collapsed and the way in which they collapsed. Some of this speculation seems ridiculous to me. Suddenly people who know nothing about the subject become experts on how tall buildings collapse. I saw a plane crash into each of the two buildings of the Twin Towers, I saw them collapse, cause and effect. According to Occam's principle not much more need be said. If you want to know how the Towers collapsed then you can seek reasonable explanations, such as that the planes (weighing ca. 100 tons each) severed many interior supports (concrete and metal) of the building, the planes contained almost full tanks of aviation fuel that burnt at extremely high temperature, weakening the supports and causing some to melt. Then the top portions of the Towers above the impact points, weighing huge amounts, collapsed onto the remaining portions, causing them to collapse too. Aren't these reasons obvious and straightforward. According to common sense any speculation about any other causes for the collapse are tendentious and unnecessary.

For example, someone spotted several small chips with an orange and grey color in the voluminous dust produced in the collapse, and attributed these to a hot-burning substance called thermite, that is used to cause buildings to collapse in planned demolitions. There are several problems with this explanation, first such orange paint (consisting of iron oxide) was used to cover many interior metal portions of the Twin Tower buildings and this was often painted over with a grey paint, second, although Thermite consists of iron oxide and aluminium, it is not usually used to detonate buildings, but rather plain dynamite is used. So according to Occam's principle, forget the idea of a planned detonation bringing the Towers down. Another point made is that small tufts of smoke indicating small explosions are seen on floors below the main impact point. But why assume these are "planned" explosions, why not assume the much more likely explanation that burning fuel oil poured down pipes and cavities within the buildings and caused minor fires and explosions on lower floors.

Then there is the collapse of Building 7 on the Twin Towers site. This building was not hit by any plane, it was physically separate from the Twin Towers themselves and half their height and it collapsed vertically, much like the Towers themselves. It has been stated that this was a CIA building, and therefore that the CIA, for reasons unknown, detonated its supports and caused it to collapse. This is simply nonsense! When the Twin Towers collapsed adjacent to this building, people much further away said it felt like an "earthquake," also the force of the initial dust storm from their collapse was incredible, finally there were fires underground caused by the fuel and the collapse and all these buildings were connected underground. To believe any other explanation than that this building collapsed due to the initial plane crashes and the subsequent collapse of the Towers is perverse.

I want to address the question of the identity of the hijackers. Their identities were clearly proven from Passports and facts connecting them. Most of them were part of a cell that lived and met in Hamburg, their dates of arrival and departure from Hamburg are known. Their addresses and dates of arrival in the US are known and their attendence at pilot training schools at various locations around the US are known. The addresses of banks to which specific amounts of money was sent to them are also known. Some have said that with the amount of training they could not pilot a commercial airliner, but this is not true, I heard an experienced airline pilot refute this. And in fact some of the hijackers specifically asked to be taught how to fly such planes. The remark of one of the hijackers that he did not need to know how to land such a plane only how to fly it caused a flight instructor to contact his local FBI office and a report was prepared by an FBI agent, but was never acted on. This was due to incompetence and lack of inter-agency communication rather than any conspiracy.

Finally, much has been said about the identity of the hijackers, for example that this was a Zionist plot and that no Jews were killed because they had been forewarned . This is a grotesque lie, many Jews were killed, just look at the names. Of course, in the Arab world, where rumor often passes for fact, this lie is widely believed. But, it is simply false! All the hijackers were Muslims and several of them have been traced to al Qaeda training sites in Pakistan or Afghanistan. 18 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens and in most cases their families have been identified. One of them, Zacarias Massaoui, a French citizen, was denied entry into the USA and was arrested, subsequently tried and found guilty of being involved in the plot. There is so much more detailed information, I suggest everyone read the entries in Wikipedia, under the specific headings "Flight 11", "Flight 93," and the names involved: Mohammed Atta, Massaoui, Khaled Shiekh Mohammed, etc. etc. You cannot but be impressed by the amount of detailed information gathered after the event. If you have any other theories, don't write to me about them!

Migron

2011-09-15T20:16:00.000+03:00

Migron is a headache, it is a small Jewish settlement on the West Bank in Samaria. It has been in the headlines because the Israel Govt. sent the IDF into Migron last week and in the middle of the night they roughly turfed three families out of their homes and razed them to ruins. This was after an anti-settlement Israeli organization Peace Now petitioned the Israeli Supreme Court to have the "outpost" dismantled. That this action was considered an important step was indicated by the statement of support for Israel's action by the US State Department, which has been pressing for such a policy for years. As they always say, it has been US policy that all Jewish settlements on the West Bank are illegal, although this is not supported by interpretations of international law (from the 1922 Treaty of Lausanne to the 1993 Oslo Accords).

Whatever the interpretation, this action unleashed a hornet's nest, in the form of predictable counter-attacks by the settlers and their supporters, who feel that they are being victimized. There were several actions, first against mosques in the Arab villages in the area, one of which was burnt, and then an attack on an Israeli military camp, in which buildings and trucks were set on fire and vandalized. In every case, the perpetrators spray painted in Hebrew the words "Migron" and "price tag" on the walls. These actions of course produced another stream of comments from the Israeli Govt., which deplored them, and even the US Secty. of State who condemned them. However, the US did not reflect that their position, which is at least legally questionable if not politically self-serving, was the cause of these counter-reactions. What do you expect if you go in the middle of the night and bulldoze people's houses, especially if the occupants are Jews? This is reminiscent of Nazi Germany, although so far noone was killed. If the Israeli Govt. doesn't know that it will cause a reaction of this type then it is ignorant. If the Obama Administration doesn't know that it will cause internal schisms within Israel, then it is premediated.

Let us also not be naieve. Jewish settlements are a permanent fixture in Judea and Samaria and no Palestinian declaration of statehood, whether supported by 130 countries at the UN or not, is going to change that.

It sounds better in Amharic

2011-09-14T15:55:00.001+03:00

Last Thurs evening we attended a performance at Netanya Academic College of "It sounds better in Amharic," a one-man show put on in English by an Ethiopian Israeli named Yossi Vassa, co-sponsored by Netanya-AACI and the Forgotten People's Fund that collects money for poor Ethiopian Jews. He was very engaging and charming and one identified with his story.

He described how his family and village decided to leave their homes to go to the mythical "Jerusalem," based on the persuasion of a white Jew, that the children thought must have a terrible disease because they had never seen a white man before (when they got to Israel they found that the disease had spread). They trekked across a wasteland to the Sudanese border for three months mainly using donkeys. There they were cheated and forced to live in a terrible camp with no food and no money for a year, during which his two younger brothers and his grandmother died. Until finally they were taken to an airfield and saw a plane for the first time and flew miraculously to Israel.

They were not taken to "Jerusalem," but to Netanya, which has a large Ethiopian population. Here they tried to maintain their village cohesion, while major changes were occurring to them. They were randomly given Hebrew names, and he was dubbed Yossi because he liked the name of the man who was their absorption manager. The children learned Hebrew and so he became the most important person in his family because his parents had no idea what was going on and he translated for them. The old adult control of the children broke down and they became westernized. Eventually he became an actor, a profession that did not exist in their village, and one that his parents cannot understand ("They pay you for this?").

After the performance there was a question and answer period. He was asked if, after all the suffering and difficulties, he still was glad that he had come to Israel. He answered in the affirmative; even though they suffered on the journey, they were constantly suffering in Ethiopia from anti-Semitism from the predominantly Christian population and there was no future for them there. Many of their people had been forcibly converted to Christianity, and they were constantly being attacked and their land stolen (in fact the remnants of the forcibly converted, called Falash Mura, are currently being flown from Ethiopia directly to Israel where they are converting back to Judaism). Overall it was an enlightening and even inspiring experience.

Latin American visit to NAC

2011-09-13T15:44:00.000+03:00

On Tues 6 September, the Netanya Academic College (NAC) hosted Ambassadors and Diplomatic Attaches of the Central and South American countries (Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia, Uruguay, Panama, Guatemala, Honduras and Chile). This was a very important visit because in most of those countries there is a community of secret Jews or "anusim" (Hebrew for "forced") and this was an opportunity to find cultural bridges between Israeli Jews and those countries.

Rabbi Moshe Pinchuk, Head of the Jewish Heritage Center at NAC, welcomed the visitors and gave some introductory remarks. He then introduced Prof. Michael Corinaldi, Head of the new “International Institute for the Study of Secret Jews (Anusim)”, who spoke briefly about the subject of the “Secret Jews,” formerly referred to as “marranos.” Prof. Corinaldi pointed out that the terms "marrano", and "chueta" used on the Balearic Islands, are derogatory terms and urged those present to stop using these terms to refer to the descendents of conversos, those Jews who were forcibly converted to Catholic Christianity in Spain and Portugal. The term "anusim" is preferred. Many of the descendents of these former Jews spread around the world, particularly in what were then Spanish and Portuguese colonies, including the countries represented there.

Mrs. Gloria Mound, Senior Advisor to the Head of the Inst., spoke briefly about her experiences starting 37 years ago visiting the Balearic Islands, where she subsequently did ground-breaking research on the descendents of the Secret Jews living there. She gave an example of a Brazilian girl who wished to marry in the UK a Cohen, normally forbidden to marry a convert, and Mrs. Mound was able to prove to the Rabbinic authorities that she was Jewish according to their criteria. Another case is pending of a girl from New Mexico who is a descendent of a converso family from Formentera (one of the smallest Balearic Islands) who wishes to marry an Israeli. These are only two examples of hundreds of such cases that Mrs. Mound has handled over the years.

Rabbi Pinchuck then presented the program of the Jewish Heritage Center and his specific course that is designed to familiarize diplomatic staff that serve in Israel with Jewish practices.

Following a reception the representatives were taken on a tour of the NAC and of the City of Netanya.

The Facebook page of the Inst. for Studies of Secret Jews is at:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-International-Institute-for-Studies-Secret-Jews/127599744000151?ref=ts
Please feel free to visit the page and add anything of relevance, particularly if you can write in Spanish or Portuguese.

In memoriam "9/11"

2011-09-12T15:53:00.000+03:00

How to memorialize "9/11", or rather the nearly 3,000 victims of that heinous attack by Muslim terrorists piloting commercial airliners into the Twin Towers, the Pentagon and a field in Shanksville, PA. Of course, there were heroes among them, the 342 NY City Firemen who walked knowingly into that inferno in order to save others and were killed themselves; the passengers aboard United Airlines Flight 93 from Boston bound to San Francisco, that the terrorists turned en route towards Washington, who attacked the hijackers and forced the plane to crash rather than see it aimed at one of America's founding symbols, the White House or the Capitol. But, we always say that in any mass tragedy it is better to focus on one person, one incident in order to appreciate the general sacrifice.

In the Jerusalem Post magazine this weekend (see http://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Features/Article.aspx?id=237220) there was an article about Daniel Lewin, aged 31, a hi-tech engineer, who had boarded United Airlines flight 11 at Logan Airport, Boston, en route to Los Angeles for a business meeting. Lewin was an Israeli and a founder of a hi-tech company called Akamai in Boston. Lewin had made important contributions to the development of the internet and to IBMs systems program Genesys. There were 91 other people aboard the flight that was taken over by 5 terrorists and re-routed towards New York City. Lewin, who was originally from Detroit, had served in the IDF as a member of the General Staff Reconnaisance unit (sayeret matkal) which carried out uniquely dangerous missions. According to testimony given at the time by flight attendants Amy Sweeting and Betty Ong, who both perished, recorded and written down by an air traffic controller and held by the FBI, Lewin attacked the hijackers, but was overpowered and stabbed in the neck and left to die on the floor of the plane. This occurred sometime between the hijacking and when the plane hit the North Tower of the World Trade Center 30 mins later. Accordingly Lewin was probably the first victim of the "9/11" attacks, and it should be noted that he died fighting the evil. He was a hero and deserves to be remembered by all of us for his courage and sacrifice.

As well as Lewin and the many Jewish people who perished in the incidents, five Israelis were killed in the WTC attack. Israel has the only memorial outside the US that lists the names of all the victims, that is located outside Jerusalem. The incident of "9/11" had a profound impact on the US and the free world. Never again!

Embassy attack

2011-09-11T15:51:00.000+03:00

It is helpful to think of the Muslims as not adhering to normal civilized practices, such as honoring treaties, attacking embassies or believing absurd rumors. Thus, they break treaties when they decide it is convenient for them, following the example of Mohammed, or they attack embassies, such as the current attack on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo or the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979, or they believe that the 9/11 attacks that were perpetrated by a group of Muslims were carried out by a Jewish-Zionist-American conspiracy. Although the Egyptian forces held back while the mob was attacking our Embassy in Cairo they were eventually mobilized and are now protecting the building. However, our flag was once before taken down from the building and they allowed it to happen again. Just as they allowed a group of terrorists to pass thru their guarded border to attack Israel and kill civilians, but then complain when their guards were killed in the crossfire. Perhaps the Egyptian mob doesn't understand that they are not capable of mounting any kind of attack on Israel, but hopefully the Egyptian military itself does understand and has internalized that painful lesson.

During the attack the phone calls between PM Netanyahu, Pres. Obama and Gen Tantawi, the Head of the Interim Governing Council in Egypt avoided a catastrophe. Although Israel Ambassador Levanon and 80 of his staff were not in the Embassy and were flown to safety in Israel, six guards were trapped inside a sealed room in the Embassy with a strengthesed metal door. They were in constant touch with the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem and a call from Netanyahu to Obama to Tantawi did the trick. A team of Egyptian security men dressed in normal garb got into the Embassy and rescued the guards, who were also then flown to safety in Israel. Meanwhile the Embassy was ransacked and destroyed by the mob.

This attack resulted in many foreign leaders criticizing Egypt for not adhering to international norms to protect foreign embassies, after all this could happen to other embassies if they didn't respond. So they responded, and the Egyptian Minister of the Interior apologized to Israel, while they put a huge cordon of troops around teh building, too late, but better than nothing. PM Netanyahu gave a speech in which he said that despite the attack on the Embassy, which is sovereign Israeli territory, Israel would adhere to the peace treaty with Egypt, and he left an Ambassadorial representative in Cairo to ensure that diplomatic relations were not broken. Seemingly crisis averted. But, who knows what can happen in the future given the delicate and unpredictable situation prevailing in Egypt.

Saber rattling

2011-09-09T15:43:00.000+03:00

It was reported today that PM Erdogan of Turkey has threatened to send Turkish warships to protect any future flotilla of ships containing humanitarian aid to Gaza. This almost amounts to a declaration of war with Israel, since the Palmer Report issued recently by the UN Secty. General confirmed the legality of the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza and affirmed the right of Israel to stop and search any ships entering Gaza waters. This is the right of any state that is being attacked by an enemy, to check all ships and cargo to stop arms and individuals (terrorists) reaching that enemy, in this case Gaza.

Since the Palmer Report rejected Turkish and Arab assertions that Israel's Gaza blockade is "illegal," Erdogan has had the rug pulled out from under him. Instead of taking the rational position of accepting the Report, he not only has rejected it, but has issued a threat to take the case to the International Court of Justice in the Hague. If he does, international maritime lawyers confidently predict that he will once again lose (unless there are some Muslim judges who vote automatically against Israel). In that case he is getting himself in deeper, it is a case of blind hatred of Israel prejudicing the relations between states.

The Israeli Government by contrast has been treading softly and making placating noises towards Ankara. There is a Turkish delegation expected for the annual Defense Forces exhibition in Israel, that many Defense MInisters from around the world attend. They issued a statement welcoming the Turkish delegation and it is expected that they will still attend. So it is a case of Turkey being split, some centers continuing good ties with Israel, while others, particualrly the Erdogan Govt. making matters worse. PM Netanyahu spoke at a naval officers graduation ceremony yesterday and reiterated that Israel will not apologise to Turkey and expressed confidence in the performance of the naval commandos. Also, Israeli Defense Minister Barak repeated his regret at what happened to the Turks aboard the Mavi Maramara, without actually apologizing.

But, if Erdogan carries out his threat, then this could bring Israel and Turkey into a direct collision course and could initiate military action that could lead to war. We all hope that cooler heads will prevail in Turkey and that members of the EU and the US will bring pressure to bear on Turkey to not take such an illegal and indefensible step.

Last gasp

2011-09-06T15:40:00.000+03:00

Last Saturday night there was an even larger turnout of the social protest movement in Israel, with some 200,000 participating in Tel Aviv and another 200,000 estimated altogether in other cities in the country. The main message of this protest movement is that the economic conditions in Israel are unfair, that apartments cost too much, bringing up baby costs too much and food costs too much and the mass of poor and middle class people want the Government to change things for the better. It is likely that similar protest movements in other countries, such as Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and even England, would be even more justified under the poorer economic situations in those countries.

But, this may be the last gasp of the protest movement. The tent cities in the main towns are being dismantled as the student occupants go back to school. The homeless will stay on, but without the same political power, and the organizers of the movement will now have to evaluate what they have accomplished. The Trachtenberg Committee, set up by the Netanyahu Government to take testimony from all and sundry, are nearing the end of their term, they are supposed to report back in only a month after their formation. What they will make of the situation and how they will advise the Government to tackle some of the problems will be interesting to see. It is very unlikely that problems like the cost of housing, which is due to market forces, can be changed in a short period of time. Everyone would like things to be cheaper, but how to manage this is unclear.

Israel is already turning back to the usual focus on the security situation. What with the attacks in the Negev and the continuing rockets being fired in the South, the deliberate Turkish acts to exacerbate relations between us, the internal strife in Egypt and Syria, people are casting a dim eye around and seeing little to be happy about. The worst event anticipated will be the Palestinian maneuver to obtain unilateral Statehood from the UN. Now that we are in September, there is barely a few weeks to go before that transpires, and then we will see the outcome. By the time October rolls around the protest movement will be almost forgotten, a little adventure by our young and restless during the summer that won't amount to much. We will be too busy trying to understand the outcome of the more serious Arab maneuvers designed to extinguish our existence.

NO apology!

2011-09-05T18:28:00.000+03:00

Turkey has been waging a deliberate rejectionist propaganda campaign against Israel. In Turkey, the traditional secular Government has been replaced with the Islamist oriented Government of Recip Tayyip Erdogan that has defanged the Army and is intent on delegitimizing Israel. First, the Turkish Government connived in the sending of the Mavi Marmara flotilla to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza and they also included trained Islamist terrorists on board that attacked the Israeli commandos when they arrived. This is not just my opinion but is included in the Palmer Report that was issued by the UN. The Report also said that Israel used "excessive force" in fighting these terrorists, but how else were they to defend themselves. But, the Report makes it clear that the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza is legal and justified.

Then Erdogan insisted that Israel must apologize for the death of the nine Turkish citizens in the combat on the boat. Israel refuses to apologize, what for, for legitimately defending itself? Now Turkey has used the publication of the Report as an excuse to expel the Israeli Ambassador and downgrade diplomatic ties with Israel. They have also cancelled the joint military pacts they had with Israel. All this is a deliberate anti-Israel maneuver to curry favor with the Muslim world to gain influence there. It should not be forgotten that Turkey controlled most of the Middle East for hundreds of years, and as a right wing Islamist PM, Erdogan is pursuing a policy focussed on the east, not the west. In a sense this has little to do with Israel, but has more to do with Turkey's historic role in the region and its internal politics. In summary, Turkey is using Israel to score points with the Arabs. This is easy to do when the Palestinians are intent on obtaining legitimacy for their state from the UN. Turkey will be one of those Muslim nations that will line up to support the Palestinians.

Turkey has other problems, the illegal occupation of Northern Cyprus, a clear case of brazen military expansionism. They are also still waging a military campaign against the Kurds and recently attacked Kurdish positions in northern Iraq, a completely illegal act. Further they are always trying hard to deny the truth of the 1917 massacre of Armenians that was a forerunner of the Holocaust. Turkey is also playing the Syria card, while Syria descends into chaos, Turkey will be there to pick up the pieces. But, the consquences can be worse for them than they think.

The Arabs have no love for the Turks considering how they were treated by them when Turkey was their colonial master. Also, the Arab arena has traditionally been the playground for the pursuit of glory and power between the two peripheral Muslim nations, Turkey and Iran. Iran is making headway in the Arab world with its threat to develop nuclear weapons. This not only discomfits Israel but also Turkey, so Turkey is looking for ways to counter the influence of Iran, and delegitimizing Israel is one of them. Look for further anti-Israel moves by Turkey to show the Muslim world that they are leaders in the campaign against Israel. But, in the long run this will not accrue to their benefit, they will lose any possibility of joining the EU and they will lose US support and influence.

The Palestinian Fall

2011-09-02T18:27:00.000+03:00

Pres. Abbas in response to PM Netanyahu's request for a continuation of negotiations: "But its a long, long time from May to December, and the days grow short when you reach September, and the Autumn weather turns the leaves to flame, and I haven't got time for the waiting game...."

As we get closer to the September opening of the UN, we come closer to the day when things will change dramatically in the Middle East. We have had the "Arab spring" which has resulted in the overthrow of three Arab dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and Syria's dictator Bashar Assad is nearing the end-game. Now we have the "Palestinian Fall," in both senses of the word. At this time the Palestinians have decided to take their chances and opt for asking the UN General Assembly to grant them unilateral Statehood. Abba Eban memorably said that "the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity," and this is one the greatest mistakes of their convoluted history.

Until now the Israel-Arab conflict has been bound up in UN resolutions that have required bilateral negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians to come to a peaceful conclusion on the basis of a "two-state solution." By taking this unilateral step, the Palestinians are negating previous bilateral agreements. The agreements that Israel negotiated with the Palestine Authority will become null and void if that Authority no longer exists. The Oslo Accords that established the PA will themselves no longer be valid. All agreements that the US made with the PA will become obsolete. How that will change the actual picture is not entirely clear. But, it will free Israel to also take unilateral action, to declare that the agreements with the PA no longer limit its actions and to redraw the map of Israel in the Middle East. How this will intersect with the fundamental changes that are going on in the Arab world simultaneoulsy remains to be seen. Certainly none of the Arab countries neighboring Israel are in a state to take any action in support of the Palestinians.

The Israeli Government is currently undecided what to do in response to the Palestinian initiative. Netanyahu is waiting to see what the actual wording of the UN resolution is, how the Palestinians themselves respond and whether or not there will be a further violent uprising, the so-called "third intifada" that is being threatened. Pres. Abbas insists that he is against the use of terrorism, but so did Arafat. If there are mass waves of civilians against Israeli checkpoints then the IDF will have to be able to deal with that. But, just as in the past, violent attacks failed and terrorism failed, so the Palestinian tactics will again fail against a well-prepared, highly motivated and organized State such as Israel. We have seen worse and we have surmounted all previous difficulties.

Currently different Ministers of the Government are expressing different opinions. But, the actual Government response will be decided once the dust settles. This explains why Israel has been holding back in dealing with the rockets from Gaza, they don't want to give the Palestinians any excuses to take to the UN. But, after they make their move we will make ours, and the Middle East will never be the same again.Reply